Global Markets Show Varied Trends Before U.S. Interest Rate Announcement
Market Overview: Global markets showed mixed results ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest-rate decision, with U.S. futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising, while the Dow remained flat after recent record highs.
Tech Sector Highlights: Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI led to a 2% increase in its shares, pushing its market capitalization above $4 trillion for the first time, contributing to a positive sentiment in the tech sector.
Upcoming Earnings Reports: Major tech companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, are set to report their earnings on Wednesday, which could further influence market trends.
Political Developments: President Trump is on a tour of Asia and is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss trade frameworks later this week.
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- Earnings Beat: Alphabet's Q4 2025 results exceeded Wall Street estimates with a 2.4% revenue surprise and a 6.8% earnings outperformance, reflecting strong financial performance despite a 6.5% stock drop post-report.
- Cloud Business Surge: Google Cloud's sales surged 48% year-over-year to $17.7 billion, representing 15.5% of Alphabet's total revenue, while operating income soared 154% to $5.3 billion, indicating robust growth potential in the AI sector.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Although Alphabet lost approximately $250 billion in market value over three days due to concerns over massive AI infrastructure spending, it remains the top performer among the
- Microsoft's Investment Strategy: By holding a 27% stake in OpenAI, Microsoft, while lacking its own generative AI model, offers a variety of generative AI models through Azure Foundry, positioning itself as an AI facilitator, which reduces development costs and enhances market competitiveness.
- Alphabet's Proactive Development: Alphabet's Gemini model has emerged as an industry leader, leveraging deep insights into user data to provide more personalized AI services; despite the substantial resources spent on development, the increase in market value indicates the potential returns of this investment.
- Financial Performance Comparison: In their latest earnings reports, Microsoft reported a 17% year-over-year revenue increase and a 60% rise in earnings per share, while Alphabet's revenue grew by 18% and EPS by 31%, showing comparable performance, but Google Cloud's 48% growth rate highlights its strong position in the cloud computing market.
- Valuation Discrepancy: Following a sell-off after its Q2 earnings report, Microsoft is now significantly cheaper than Alphabet, and despite similar business performances, Microsoft's lower valuation makes it a more attractive investment option at present, reflecting market optimism about future AI growth.
- Big Tech Valuation Loss: According to FactSet, major tech companies collectively lost over $1 trillion in valuation over the past week, with Amazon alone shedding more than $300 billion, indicating a significant decline in market confidence that could impact future investment decisions.
- Sex Crime Scandal Exposure: Prominent Silicon Valley figures, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, have been linked to files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, which may have long-term reputational consequences for their companies and exacerbate public trust issues in the tech industry.
- Japanese Election Outcome: Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority in the recent election, reinstating Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister, which grants her broad authority to boost spending and suspend certain food taxes; this result has bolstered Japanese stocks and strengthened the yen to 156.88 against the dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
- U.S. Market Rebound: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time, marking a strong market rebound, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.97% and 2.18%, respectively, a trend that could attract more investors back into the market and drive economic recovery.
- Employee Open Letter: A total of 1,002 full-time employees at Google have signed an open letter urging the company to sever ties with federal immigration enforcement agencies, reflecting strong dissatisfaction with the lack of transparency regarding the company's contracts and technology usage with the federal government.
- Transparency Demands: The letter highlights that Google has failed to provide internal transparency about its collaboration with federal agencies, prompting employees to call on leadership, particularly CEO Sundar Pichai, for greater disclosure to enhance internal trust and accountability.
- Request to Withdraw Technology: Employees are demanding that Google withdraw its technology from all work associated with the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and Customs and Border Protection, aiming to protect workers and communities from immigration enforcement actions and emphasizing social responsibility.
- Advocacy for Safety Measures: Additionally, employees are advocating for safety measures to protect workers and are calling for an all-hands meeting to address these concerns, indicating a heightened awareness of corporate policies and social responsibilities among the workforce.
- Election Impact: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her ruling LDP secured a supermajority in the election, controlling over two-thirds of the Lower House, which allows her to freely pursue an agenda of increased spending and suspension of certain food taxes, likely stimulating economic growth further.
- Market Surge: Following the election results, Japanese stocks reached a record high, with the yen strengthening to 156.88 per dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence and indicating positive market expectations regarding Takaichi's policies.
- U.S. Market Rebound: Major U.S. indexes rebounded post-election, with the S&P 500 rising 1.97% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.18%, driven by strong performances from tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle, which bolstered global investor confidence.
- Private Credit Concerns: The private credit market faces renewed uncertainty as AI pressures software companies, raising investor concerns about borrower business models and potentially increasing default risks, which could impact overall financial stability.
- Google Cloud Performance: Google Cloud's revenue surged 48% in the December quarter to $17.7 billion, significantly exceeding the $16.2 billion consensus estimate, highlighting its robust performance in AI, although investor reactions to the stock's rally have been muted.
- Competitive Landscape Shift: Since the launch of the Gemini 3 model in November, Google has secured a cloud partnership with Apple, leveraging its AI capabilities to drive business growth, while Amazon faces competitive disadvantages due to its lack of in-house AI operations.
- Investor Sentiment Fluctuations: Despite Amazon and Microsoft's cloud units also beating expectations, the size of their beats failed to impress investors, leading to post-earnings selloffs, with DA Davidson downgrading Amazon to 'Neutral'.
- Increased Capital Expenditures: Google plans to double its capital expenditures this year, marking the largest increase among Big Tech peers, and while its stock has rallied about 65% over the past six months, analysts remain cautious about its future upside potential.











