F.L. Putnam Strategist Recommends Investing in This Global Chipmaker Instead of Nvidia Amid Rising AI Competition
Investment Strategy: Ellen Hazen from F.L. Putnam Investment Management suggests that investors can benefit from the AI rally by focusing on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which has a strong position in the semiconductor market and is less vulnerable to debt financing issues.
Market Outlook: Hazen acknowledges the potential for a bubble in AI investments but believes it won't reach the scale of past tech bubbles, citing strong earnings growth as a stabilizing factor for tech valuations.
TSMC's Performance: TSMC has seen significant growth, with a 52% increase in stock value this year, driven by high demand for AI and high-performance computing, which accounted for 57% of its revenue in the third quarter.
Nvidia's Challenges: While Hazen remains optimistic about Nvidia, she expresses caution regarding its future sales in China, highlighting uncertainties about demand and the impact of geopolitical factors on its revenue growth.
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- China Market Contribution: AMD's Q4 sales of $390 million in GPUs to China significantly boosted results, although management forecasts only $100 million in revenue for Q1, indicating potential volatility in future sales from this dynamic market.
- Data Center Revenue Growth: AMD's data center revenue surged 39% year-over-year to $5.4 billion, driven by record CPU and GPU sales, highlighting strong demand in the AI sector, with eight of the ten largest AI companies now utilizing its GPUs.
- Client and Gaming Segment Performance: Revenue from the client and gaming segments rose 34% and 50% respectively, totaling $3.9 billion, although the company anticipates a meaningful decline in semi-custom revenue in 2026, which could impact future growth potential.
- Overall Financial Performance: AMD's total revenue for Q4 climbed 34% year-over-year to $10.27 billion, with gross margin increasing to 54%, and adjusted earnings per share rising 40% to $1.53, surpassing market expectations and demonstrating robust performance amid high investor expectations.
- Price Range Analysis: SOXL ETF's 52-week low is $7.225 per share, with a high of $71.98, and the latest trade at $62.88 indicates significant volatility over the past year, reflecting strong market interest in the semiconductor sector.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, helping to assess whether the current price is overvalued or undervalued, which can influence investment decisions.
- ETF Unit Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, allowing for flexibility in responding to market changes.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding helps identify ETFs with notable inflows or outflows, where inflows necessitate purchasing underlying assets, while outflows may lead to selling, impacting the performance of individual stocks within the ETF.
- Early AI Investment Cycle: Wedbush analyst Dan Ives highlights that the artificial intelligence investment cycle is still in its early stages, currently around year three of a projected ten-year cycle, with significant capital spending from Big Tech and governments expected to reshape technology leadership and drive growth in related ETFs.
- Software Stock Sell-off Overstated: Ives has re-added Salesforce and ServiceNow to his list of top 30 AI-focused stocks, asserting that concerns about permanent damage to traditional software business models are exaggerated, as enterprises are unlikely to quickly abandon existing software ecosystems, which could support inflows into enterprise software-heavy ETFs.
- Multiplier Effect of AI Chip Investment: Ives notes that for every dollar spent on Nvidia GPU chips, there is an estimated $8 to $10 increase in broader technology ecosystem investment, indicating a favorable dynamic for diversified technology ETFs that capture multiple aspects of the AI value chain amid the ongoing AI revolution.
- Diversified ETF Opportunities: The report emphasizes investment areas in AI development such as data infrastructure, cybersecurity, and autonomous vehicles, suggesting that ETF investors should focus on these sector opportunities to achieve diversification and manage stock-specific volatility as AI continues to gain momentum.
- Oracle Stock Rise: Oracle shares increased by 2% after DA Davidson upgraded its rating from neutral to buy, with analysts believing that a revamped OpenAI will regain its position as Google's top competitor, enhancing collaboration potential with Oracle.
- STMicroelectronics Partnership Expansion: STMicroelectronics saw a 7% stock increase following a multi-billion-dollar partnership announcement with Amazon Web Services to support infrastructure for cloud and AI data centers, which is expected to drive future revenue growth for the company.
- Kroger CEO Transition: Kroger's shares jumped nearly 5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that former Walmart executive Greg Foran will be appointed as the new CEO, indicating a potential strategic shift that could enhance the company's performance in a competitive retail market.
- Hims & Hers Health Crisis: Hims & Hers stock plummeted 18% after it withdrew its copycat weight-loss pill following legal threats from Novo Nordisk, highlighting the importance of intellectual property in the market and potentially impacting Hims & Hers' future product strategy.
- Nvidia's Stock Movement: Nvidia's stock was experiencing a slight decline early on Monday after a significant rally driven by increased spending from major tech companies.
- Investor Sentiment: Investors are currently reassessing the artificial intelligence market, which is impacting Nvidia's stock performance.
Stock Market Outlook: The Super Bowl Indicator suggests a positive year for the stock market, particularly following the Seattle Seahawks' victory.
Investor Sentiment: Even skeptics of the Super Bowl Indicator can find reasons for optimism as the market approaches a significant January jobs report.











