Evaluating Arcutis Biotherapeutics Following a 99% Year-to-Date Increase and Varied Valuation Indicators
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 14 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ARQT?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Stock Performance: Arcutis Biotherapeutics has seen significant volatility, with a recent 7% decline but a year-to-date increase of 99.3% and a 128.7% rise over the past year, reflecting changing investor sentiment and expectations in the dermatology sector.
Valuation Insights: A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis indicates that Arcutis is undervalued by 58.1%, suggesting potential for future cash generation, while its Price to Sales ratio of 11.18x is above the industry average, indicating it may be overvalued on a sales basis.
Future Projections: Analysts forecast a substantial increase in free cash flow for Arcutis, potentially reaching $469.1 million by 2035, which could significantly enhance its intrinsic value.
Dynamic Valuation Approach: Simply Wall St introduces a "Narratives" approach, allowing investors to create dynamic financial forecasts based on evolving information, which can help assess whether to buy, hold, or sell shares of Arcutis Biotherapeutics.
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Analyst Views on ARQT
Wall Street analysts forecast ARQT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARQT is 30.25 USD with a low forecast of 21.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 26.070
Low
21.00
Averages
30.25
High
37.00
Current: 26.070
Low
21.00
Averages
30.25
High
37.00
About ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage medical dermatology company. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing treatments for dermatological diseases with high-unmet medical needs. Its portfolio is comprised of topical and systemic treatments with potential to treat immune-mediated dermatological diseases and conditions. Its lead product, ZORYVE, is for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, including psoriasis in the intertriginous areas, in individuals 12 years of age or older. The ZORYVE is also indicated for topical treatment of mild to moderate atopic dermatitis. ZORYVE cream is a once-daily topical formulation of roflumilast, a potent and selective phosphodiesterase-4 (PDE4) inhibitor. The Company’s pipeline includes ARQ-255, ARQ-252, and ARQ-234. Its ARQ-255 is being developed for the treatment of alopecia areata. ARQ-252 is an alternative topical cream formulation of ivarmacitinib that the Company is developing for chronic hand eczema and vitiligo.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tejara Capital Fully Exits Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stake
- Position Change: On February 5, Tejara Capital reported the complete sale of its 520,503 shares in Arcutis Biotherapeutics for approximately $9.81 million, indicating a significant decrease in the value of its holdings in the company.
- Portfolio Adjustment: This sale reduced Tejara's exposure to Arcutis from 5.1% of AUM last quarter to zero, reflecting a reassessment of risk, likely as a risk management strategy rather than a negative outlook on the business.
- Performance Metrics: As of February 4, Arcutis shares were priced at $26.08, marking a 99.1% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 14% gain, underscoring the company's strong fundamentals.
- Future Outlook: Management projects net product sales of approximately $455 million to $470 million for 2026, indicating sustained demand growth, suggesting that Tejara's exit does not undermine the company's long-term growth potential.
See More
Arcutis' ZORYVE Revenue Reaches $244.6M in 2025 YTD, Anticipates $470M for 2026
- Significant Sales Growth: Since its launch in 2022, Arcutis' ZORYVE product has seen sales reach $59.6 million in 2023 and $166.5 million in 2024, reflecting strong physician adoption and market demand, with 2025 YTD revenue hitting $244.6 million, further solidifying its market position in chronic inflammatory skin disease treatment.
- Substantial Market Potential: Arcutis anticipates net product revenue for ZORYVE to range between $455 million and $470 million in 2026, with peak sales projected to reach $2.6 billion to $3.5 billion, indicating significant growth opportunities in the dermatology market and potential to displace traditional topical corticosteroids.
- Ongoing Clinical Research: The company is conducting safety studies for ZORYVE cream 0.05% in infants aged 3 months to 24 months, with topline data expected this quarter, while also exploring ZORYVE foam 0.3% for vitiligo and hidradenitis suppurativa, expanding its indications.
- Strong Cash Position: As of September 30, 2025, Arcutis reported $191.4 million in cash and cash equivalents, ensuring sufficient funding for future R&D and market expansion, thereby enhancing its viability in the competitive biopharmaceutical landscape.
See More
Sprott Silver Miners ETF Declines 2.3% with Americas Gold and Vizsla Silver Underperforming
- ETF Performance Decline: The Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF fell approximately 2.3% in Wednesday afternoon trading, reflecting a weak sentiment towards silver mining stocks that could impact investor confidence.
- Individual Stock Weakness: Shares of Americas Gold and Silver dropped about 2.8%, while Vizsla Silver declined by approximately 1.6%, indicating the vulnerability of these companies in the current market environment, potentially leading to capital outflows.
- Market Trend Analysis: The overall decline of the ETF is linked to fluctuations in silver prices and investor risk aversion towards mining stocks, which may influence future investment decisions and capital allocation.
- Investor Focus: As silver mining stocks continue to struggle, investors may need to reassess their allocations within precious metal portfolios to mitigate potential market risks.
See More
Suvretta Capital Reduces Arcutis Stake by $35.78 Million
- Reduction Activity: Suvretta Capital sold nearly 1.1 million shares of Arcutis Biotherapeutics during the quarter ending September 30, reducing its position by $35.78 million, which lowered its stake to approximately 10.48 million shares valued at $197.51 million, reflecting a risk management strategy amid market volatility.
- Holding Proportion Change: This transaction decreased Suvretta's stake in Arcutis to about 5.06%, yet Arcutis remains the fund's largest reported holding, indicating ongoing confidence in its future potential despite the reduction.
- Market Performance: As of November 13, Arcutis shares were priced at $30, marking a staggering 100% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 15% rise, which underscores market recognition of its product line and growth prospects.
- Regulatory Progress: Arcutis recently received FDA acceptance for a supplemental NDA for ZORYVE cream for children, with a target action date of June 29, which will aid the company in expanding its presence in the pediatric dermatology market and further solidify its market position.
See More
Suvretta Capital Management Sells Nearly 1.1M ARQT Shares, Reducing Position by $35.78M
- Reduction Dynamics: Suvretta Capital Management sold nearly 1.1 million shares of Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) in Q3, resulting in a decline of approximately $35.78 million in overall position value, indicating a risk management strategy in response to market volatility.
- Holding Status: As of September 30, Suvretta still holds about 10.48 million shares of ARQT valued at $197.51 million, which constitutes 5.06% of its $3.91 billion 13F reportable assets, confirming that ARQT remains its largest holding.
- Market Performance: As of November 13, ARQT shares were priced at $30, reflecting a staggering 100% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 15% rise, showcasing market confidence in its growth potential.
- Strategic Implications: Despite the reduction, Suvretta's strong conviction in ARQT suggests that execution on pediatric expansion and sustained prescription growth will be critical for future success.
See More
Zacks Industry Forecast for Arcutis, Amicus, and ANI
Biotech Industry Performance: The biotech sector has shown resilience in 2025, driven by new drug approvals and a surge in mergers and acquisitions, despite challenges from tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Key Players and Innovations: Companies like Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Amicus Therapeutics, and ANI Pharmaceuticals are highlighted for their strong performance and innovative drug pipelines, particularly in rare diseases and advanced therapies.
Mergers and Acquisitions: The industry is experiencing a wave of consolidation, with major companies acquiring smaller firms to enhance their product portfolios, particularly in oncology, obesity, and gene-editing sectors.
Market Outlook and Challenges: While the demand for innovative treatments remains high, biotech companies face hurdles such as pipeline setbacks, high development costs, and the need for successful commercialization to achieve profitability.
See More
Tejara Capital Fully Exits Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stake
- Position Change: On February 5, Tejara Capital reported the complete sale of its 520,503 shares in Arcutis Biotherapeutics for approximately $9.81 million, indicating a significant decrease in the value of its holdings in the company.
- Portfolio Adjustment: This sale reduced Tejara's exposure to Arcutis from 5.1% of AUM last quarter to zero, reflecting a reassessment of risk, likely as a risk management strategy rather than a negative outlook on the business.
- Performance Metrics: As of February 4, Arcutis shares were priced at $26.08, marking a 99.1% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 14% gain, underscoring the company's strong fundamentals.
- Future Outlook: Management projects net product sales of approximately $455 million to $470 million for 2026, indicating sustained demand growth, suggesting that Tejara's exit does not undermine the company's long-term growth potential.
See More
Arcutis' ZORYVE Revenue Reaches $244.6M in 2025 YTD, Anticipates $470M for 2026
- Significant Sales Growth: Since its launch in 2022, Arcutis' ZORYVE product has seen sales reach $59.6 million in 2023 and $166.5 million in 2024, reflecting strong physician adoption and market demand, with 2025 YTD revenue hitting $244.6 million, further solidifying its market position in chronic inflammatory skin disease treatment.
- Substantial Market Potential: Arcutis anticipates net product revenue for ZORYVE to range between $455 million and $470 million in 2026, with peak sales projected to reach $2.6 billion to $3.5 billion, indicating significant growth opportunities in the dermatology market and potential to displace traditional topical corticosteroids.
- Ongoing Clinical Research: The company is conducting safety studies for ZORYVE cream 0.05% in infants aged 3 months to 24 months, with topline data expected this quarter, while also exploring ZORYVE foam 0.3% for vitiligo and hidradenitis suppurativa, expanding its indications.
- Strong Cash Position: As of September 30, 2025, Arcutis reported $191.4 million in cash and cash equivalents, ensuring sufficient funding for future R&D and market expansion, thereby enhancing its viability in the competitive biopharmaceutical landscape.
See More
Sprott Silver Miners ETF Declines 2.3% with Americas Gold and Vizsla Silver Underperforming
- ETF Performance Decline: The Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF fell approximately 2.3% in Wednesday afternoon trading, reflecting a weak sentiment towards silver mining stocks that could impact investor confidence.
- Individual Stock Weakness: Shares of Americas Gold and Silver dropped about 2.8%, while Vizsla Silver declined by approximately 1.6%, indicating the vulnerability of these companies in the current market environment, potentially leading to capital outflows.
- Market Trend Analysis: The overall decline of the ETF is linked to fluctuations in silver prices and investor risk aversion towards mining stocks, which may influence future investment decisions and capital allocation.
- Investor Focus: As silver mining stocks continue to struggle, investors may need to reassess their allocations within precious metal portfolios to mitigate potential market risks.
See More
Suvretta Capital Reduces Arcutis Stake by $35.78 Million
- Reduction Activity: Suvretta Capital sold nearly 1.1 million shares of Arcutis Biotherapeutics during the quarter ending September 30, reducing its position by $35.78 million, which lowered its stake to approximately 10.48 million shares valued at $197.51 million, reflecting a risk management strategy amid market volatility.
- Holding Proportion Change: This transaction decreased Suvretta's stake in Arcutis to about 5.06%, yet Arcutis remains the fund's largest reported holding, indicating ongoing confidence in its future potential despite the reduction.
- Market Performance: As of November 13, Arcutis shares were priced at $30, marking a staggering 100% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 15% rise, which underscores market recognition of its product line and growth prospects.
- Regulatory Progress: Arcutis recently received FDA acceptance for a supplemental NDA for ZORYVE cream for children, with a target action date of June 29, which will aid the company in expanding its presence in the pediatric dermatology market and further solidify its market position.
See More
Suvretta Capital Management Sells Nearly 1.1M ARQT Shares, Reducing Position by $35.78M
- Reduction Dynamics: Suvretta Capital Management sold nearly 1.1 million shares of Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) in Q3, resulting in a decline of approximately $35.78 million in overall position value, indicating a risk management strategy in response to market volatility.
- Holding Status: As of September 30, Suvretta still holds about 10.48 million shares of ARQT valued at $197.51 million, which constitutes 5.06% of its $3.91 billion 13F reportable assets, confirming that ARQT remains its largest holding.
- Market Performance: As of November 13, ARQT shares were priced at $30, reflecting a staggering 100% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 15% rise, showcasing market confidence in its growth potential.
- Strategic Implications: Despite the reduction, Suvretta's strong conviction in ARQT suggests that execution on pediatric expansion and sustained prescription growth will be critical for future success.
See More
Zacks Industry Forecast for Arcutis, Amicus, and ANI
Biotech Industry Performance: The biotech sector has shown resilience in 2025, driven by new drug approvals and a surge in mergers and acquisitions, despite challenges from tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Key Players and Innovations: Companies like Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Amicus Therapeutics, and ANI Pharmaceuticals are highlighted for their strong performance and innovative drug pipelines, particularly in rare diseases and advanced therapies.
Mergers and Acquisitions: The industry is experiencing a wave of consolidation, with major companies acquiring smaller firms to enhance their product portfolios, particularly in oncology, obesity, and gene-editing sectors.
Market Outlook and Challenges: While the demand for innovative treatments remains high, biotech companies face hurdles such as pipeline setbacks, high development costs, and the need for successful commercialization to achieve profitability.
See More
