Should I Buy ARQT? ARQT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

27.320

1 Day change

4.79%

52 Week Range

31.770

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (pre-market ~26.32): sentiment/positioning is notably bullish (very low put activity) and fundamentals show strong top-line momentum.
Near-term trade setup: upside levels cluster at 26.86 (R1) then 27.47 (R2); current price is just above the 25.88 pivot, making the risk/reward acceptable for an impatient entry.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: RSI(6) ~51.8 (neutral) and moving averages are converging (no strong trend, consolidation/transition phase).
MACD: histogram -0.0526 (below zero) but negatively contracting, which often aligns with bearish momentum fading and potential for stabilization/turn.
Key levels: Pivot 25.878 (current price slightly above = constructive). Resistance at 26.864 (R1) and 27.474 (R2). Supports at 24.891 (S1) and 24.282 (S2).
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): +1.1% next day, +1.74% next week, +4.27% next month—tilts mildly bullish but not explosive.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/skew: Open interest put/call of 0.27 and volume put/call of 0.02 are strongly call-heavy, signaling bullish trader sentiment.
Activity: today’s option volume 1,868 is ~~148% of 30-day average; open interest also elevated (~~125% vs avg), suggesting fresh interest/positioning.
Volatility: IV(30d) ~65.24 vs HV ~85.22; IV percentile ~30.8 (not “crowded expensive” relative to its own history), which can be supportive for buyers/speculative call activity.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

on stronger-than-expected Zoryve prescription trends, lifting confidence into Q4/Q
- Growth catalyst: 2025/Q3 revenue surged +121.69% YoY, reinforcing product traction.
on 2026-02-25 after hours can act as a sentiment/volatility catalyst if prescription/sales momentum persists.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Profitability trend: Net income and EPS both declined sharply YoY in 2025/Q3 (per provided snapshot), which can cap valuation expansion if it persists.
- Technical posture: momentum is not yet decisively bullish (RSI neutral; MACD still below zero), so upside may face near-term chop around 26.86 resistance.
- Flows: Hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral (no reinforcing “smart money” accumulation signal).
- Newsflow: no fresh news in the last week—less immediate narrative fuel for a sudden breakout.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 99.219M, up +121.69% YoY (strong acceleration/top-line momentum).
Profitability: Net income 7.41M, down -117.84% YoY; EPS 0.06, down -118.18% YoY (profit/EPS trend deteriorated vs last year per snapshot).
Gross margin: 91.25%, up +4.05% YoY (very strong margin profile; supports long-run operating leverage if opex stabilizes).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2025-11-28): Mizuho (Uy Ear) raised price target to $37 from $32 and maintained Outperform.
Rationale: stronger-than-expected Zoryve prescription trends; raised Q4 sales estimate to $113M (vs $110M consensus) and 2026 estimate to $470M (vs $467M consensus); increasing confidence in converting steroidal market.
Wall Street pros view (from provided data): bullish on demand/trajectory for Zoryve and forward sales; key con is that earnings/profitability trends are not yet consistently improving despite strong revenue growth.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARQT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARQT is 30.25 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 26.070

Low

Averages

30.25

High

Current: 26.070

Low

Averages

30.25

High

Mizuho

Uy Ear

Outperform

maintain

$32 -> $37

AI Analysis

2025-11-28

Reason

Mizuho

Uy Ear

Price Target

$32 -> $37

AI Analysis

2025-11-28

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Uy Ear raised the firm's price target on Arcutis Biotherapeutics to $37 from $32 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. With one month remaining in Q4, Zoryve prescription trends have been stronger than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm upped its Q4 sales estimate to $113M, above the $110M consensus, and 2026 estimate to $470M, above the $467M consensus. Mizuho also has greater confidence in the potential of Zoryve to convert the steroidal market.

Goldman Sachs

Richard Law

Neutral

maintain

$19 -> $29

2025-10-30

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Richard Law

Price Target

$19 -> $29

2025-10-30

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Law raised the firm's price target on Arcutis Biotherapeutics to $29 from $19 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Arcutis announced Q3 results and hosted an Investor Day to present more information on its three growth pillars that could potentially drive Zoryve's peak sales to $2.6B-$3.5B per annum, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman's updated model assumes sustained growth without the need for future capital raises.

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ARQT Should I Buy

ARQT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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