Double-down or fold? Investors eye the best strategies for Macau casino stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 01 2025
0mins
Should l Buy LVS?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Macau Casino Revenue Growth: Macau's gross gaming revenue rose by 6.8% year-over-year in February, reaching 19.74 billion patacas ($2.5 billion), surpassing expectations and indicating a potential recovery post-pandemic, although analysts remain cautious due to external economic pressures.
Impact of Trade Relations on Gaming Demand: Analysts warn that U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs may reduce spending among high-value Chinese players, affecting the casino sector's growth, particularly as visitation from affluent cities has returned to pre-COVID levels but junket VIPs remain scarce.
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Analyst Views on LVS
Wall Street analysts forecast LVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LVS is 69.12 USD with a low forecast of 56.89 USD and a high forecast of 80.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 56.940
Low
56.89
Averages
69.12
High
80.00
Current: 56.940
Low
56.89
Averages
69.12
High
80.00
About LVS
Las Vegas Sands Corp. is a global developer and operator of destination properties (Integrated Resorts). The Integrated Resorts feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, celebrity chef restaurants and other amenities. Its properties also cater to high-end players by providing them with luxury amenities and premium service levels. Its other amenities include luxury accommodations, restaurants, lounges, invitation-only clubs and private gaming salons. Its principal operating and developmental activities occur in two geographic areas: Macao and Singapore. In Macao, it owns The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel; The Londoner Macao; The Parisian Macao; The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao, and Sands Macao. In Singapore, it owns Marina Bay Sands. It also has ferry operations. It owns and operates a collection of Integrated Resorts in the Macao Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (PRC) through Sands China Ltd.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Weak EBITDA Performance: Despite revenue growth, the adjusted EBITDA from its Macao resorts was $608 million, only a 6% increase year-over-year, significantly lower than the $806 million generated by Marina Bay Sands, raising investor alarms.
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- Negative Market Reaction: Despite strong earnings, concerns over declining profitability in the Macao unit led to a significant sell-off in LVS stock, reflecting investor worries about the shift away from high-margin VIP patrons to a mass market clientele.
- Options Market Signals: Even with the stock's decline, smart money is paying a premium for upside options, indicating that market participants remain optimistic about a potential rebound, as both ITM and OTM calls reflect varying degrees of upside optionality.
- Future Price Expectations: According to the Black-Scholes model, LVS stock is expected to fluctuate between $50 and $57 over the next 10 weeks, with the highest probability density around $53 to $54, suggesting that the market still anticipates a rebound.
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- Slight EBITDA Decline: For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA from Macau dipped to $2.31 billion from $2.33 billion, although the fourth quarter showed a 6.5% increase to $608 million, indicating short-term business fluctuations.
- Revenue Growth: Despite the overall EBITDA decline, Macau's revenue increased by 5% in 2025 to $7.47 billion, with fourth-quarter revenue surging by 16% to $2.06 billion year-on-year, reflecting resilience in market demand.
- Net Income Increase: Las Vegas Sands reported a 12% rise in attributable net income for 2025 to $1.627 billion, with fourth-quarter net income jumping 22% to $395 million, showcasing the company's enhanced profitability amid adversity.
See More
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Big Tech Earnings: Investors are analyzing the earnings results from major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla, with Apple also contributing to the earnings discussions.
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See More
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- Earnings Beat: Las Vegas Sands reported net revenue of $3.65 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.33 billion, yet the stock plummeted due to other concerns.
- Profitability Improvement: The company's net income rose 14% to $395 million under GAAP, with adjusted earnings per share increasing from $0.54 to $0.85, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Weak EBITDA Performance: Despite revenue growth, the adjusted EBITDA from its Macao resorts was $608 million, only a 6% increase year-over-year, significantly lower than the $806 million generated by Marina Bay Sands, raising investor alarms.
- Changing Market Dynamics: With Chinese authorities imposing restrictions on high-roller gamblers, Las Vegas Sands is forced to focus on lower-margin markets, presenting long-term profitability challenges and leading to bearish investor sentiment.
See More
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- Microsoft's Disappointing Earnings: Microsoft shares plummeted over 10% due to underwhelming growth in its cloud business and higher-than-expected expenses, putting pressure on the overall market, particularly tech stocks.
- Meta's Strong Rebound: Meta Platforms' stock surged more than 10% after reporting Q4 revenue of $59.89 billion, exceeding expectations, with Q1 revenue forecasted between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, significantly above the $51.27 billion consensus.
- Energy Stocks Benefit: WTI crude oil prices jumped over 3% to a 4.25-month high as President Trump called for negotiations with Iran on a nuclear deal, boosting energy producers' stock prices.
- Economic Data Impact: US weekly initial unemployment claims fell to 209,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market, while continuing claims dropped to 1.827 million, showing a stronger labor market, influencing market sentiment.
See More
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- Earnings Beat: Las Vegas Sands reported adjusted EPS of $0.85 for Q4, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $0.76, with sales hitting $3.649 billion, exceeding the forecast of $3.328 billion, showcasing resilience in a challenging economic environment.
- Negative Market Reaction: Despite strong earnings, concerns over declining profitability in the Macao unit led to a significant sell-off in LVS stock, reflecting investor worries about the shift away from high-margin VIP patrons to a mass market clientele.
- Options Market Signals: Even with the stock's decline, smart money is paying a premium for upside options, indicating that market participants remain optimistic about a potential rebound, as both ITM and OTM calls reflect varying degrees of upside optionality.
- Future Price Expectations: According to the Black-Scholes model, LVS stock is expected to fluctuate between $50 and $57 over the next 10 weeks, with the highest probability density around $53 to $54, suggesting that the market still anticipates a rebound.
See More
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- U.S. Stock Market Performance: Stock indexes in the U.S. ended the day mixed on Thursday.
- Index Movements: The S&P 500 increased by 0.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.72%.
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