Dollar General Reports Strong Q3 Earnings and Raises Annual Forecast
Quarterly Performance: Dollar General reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings of $1.28 per share, exceeding estimates and showing a 43.8% increase year-over-year, with net sales rising 4.6% to $10.65 billion, driven by same-store sales growth and new store openings.
Sales Growth and Guidance: Same-store sales grew by 2.5%, with increases across all major categories, prompting the company to raise its fiscal 2025 guidance for net sales growth to 4.7%-4.9% and earnings per share to between $6.30 and $6.50.
Strategic Initiatives: Dollar General opened 196 new stores and remodeled 651 locations as part of its ongoing real estate strategy, with plans for approximately 4,885 projects in fiscal 2025, including new store openings and renovations.
Financial Position: The company ended the quarter with $1.24 billion in cash and cash equivalents and plans to maintain capital expenditures at the lower end of the $1.3-$1.4 billion range for fiscal 2025, without share repurchases planned.
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- Strong Sales Outlook: Chefs' Warehouse projects net sales for FY 2026 to be between $4.35 billion and $4.45 billion, reflecting robust performance in Q4 2025, indicating sustained market demand that could drive stock price appreciation.
- Stable Gross Profit: The company anticipates gross profit to range from $1.053 billion to $1.076 billion for FY 2026, showcasing its success in cost control and operational efficiency, thereby strengthening its position in the competitive food distribution market.
- Adjusted EBITDA Forecast: The expected adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $276 million and $286 million, providing investors with a clearer view of the company's core operating performance, which may attract increased investor interest.
- Dilution Impact on Shares: The diluted share count is forecasted to be between 46.0 million and 46.7 million shares, including approximately 6.5 million shares from convertible notes, which may pressure earnings per share but also offers flexibility for future financing.
- Stock Price Analysis: CHEF's 52-week low is $47.39, with a high of $68.94, and the last trade at $60.20 indicates significant price fluctuations, reflecting market caution regarding its future performance.
- Technical Indicator Observation: The current price of $60.20 is below the 200-day moving average, suggesting a potentially bearish sentiment in the short term, prompting investors to monitor subsequent trends to assess risk.
- Market Sentiment Assessment: Despite the fluctuations within the 52-week range, the current price remains above the low point, indicating some market confidence in CHEF's fundamentals, though potential pullback risks should be noted.
- Investor Focus: Investors should closely watch CHEF's price movements in the coming trading days to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

Record Sales Achievement: The Chef's Warehouse achieved quarterly sales exceeding $1 billion for the first time in 2025, with a 10% year-over-year increase in Q3 revenue.
Positive Growth Outlook: Analysts predict a 7% increase in total sales for 2026, supported by the company's consistent performance, having surpassed earnings expectations for eight consecutive quarters.
Stock Performance: The company's stock has risen 113% over the past two years, closing 2025 with a 25% increase, driven by rising profits and positive earnings reports.
Investment Considerations: Despite its strong performance, The Chef's Warehouse was not included in a recent list of top stock recommendations by The Motley Fool, which suggests investors explore other options for potentially higher returns.
Quarterly Performance: Dollar General reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings of $1.28 per share, exceeding estimates and showing a 43.8% increase year-over-year, with net sales rising 4.6% to $10.65 billion, driven by same-store sales growth and new store openings.
Sales Growth and Guidance: Same-store sales grew by 2.5%, with increases across all major categories, prompting the company to raise its fiscal 2025 guidance for net sales growth to 4.7%-4.9% and earnings per share to between $6.30 and $6.50.
Strategic Initiatives: Dollar General opened 196 new stores and remodeled 651 locations as part of its ongoing real estate strategy, with plans for approximately 4,885 projects in fiscal 2025, including new store openings and renovations.
Financial Position: The company ended the quarter with $1.24 billion in cash and cash equivalents and plans to maintain capital expenditures at the lower end of the $1.3-$1.4 billion range for fiscal 2025, without share repurchases planned.
Chefs' Warehouse Upgrade: Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) due to a positive shift in earnings estimates, indicating potential stock price increases driven by improved earnings outlook.
Zacks Rating System: The Zacks rating system, which evaluates stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, has a strong track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 1988, highlighting the effectiveness of this approach for investors.
Earnings Estimates Increase: Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chefs' Warehouse has risen by 8.6%, reflecting analysts' growing confidence in the company's financial performance.
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Post Holdings Share Repurchase: Post Holdings, Inc. has authorized a new $500 million share repurchase program following the cancellation of a previous buyback, having repurchased approximately $275.2 million in shares prior to this decision.
Strong Financial Performance: The company reported significant cash inflows in fiscal 2025, generating $301 million in operating cash and $488.1 million in free cash flow, alongside notable year-over-year earnings improvements in key segments like Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail.
Stock Valuation: Post Holdings' stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.64, which is below both the industry average of 14.72 and the sector average of 16.4, indicating a modest discount compared to peers.
Market Performance: Despite strong financials, Post Holdings shares have declined by 5.2% over the past month, underperforming the broader Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500 index during the same period.










