Should I Buy CHEF? CHEF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Chefs' Warehouse Inc (CHEF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

66.670

1 Day change

3.94%

52 Week Range

68.940

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (pre-market ~64.27): Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and fundamentals are improving, with a meaningful Street upside target (Benchmark PT $84, Buy).
Near-term setup: price is just above the pivot (63.774) with upside levels at 65.756 (R1) and 66.981 (R2); this favors an immediate entry for an impatient buyer aiming for a quick continuation move.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.
Sentiment check: Options positioning is modestly bullish (calls favored by open interest), and there’s no negative news flow in the past week.
Watch the next major catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market)—this is the next event likely to drive a decisive move.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.00451 (slightly bearish) but negatively contracting, implying downside momentum is fading and the trend may reassert.
RSI (6): 60.95 (neutral-to-slightly-bullish), not overbought.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 63.774 (current pre-market 64.27 is slightly above)
- Resistance: 65.756 (R1) then 66.981 (R2)
- Support: 61.791 (S1) then 60.566 (S2)
Pattern-based projection (similar candlesticks): small expected edge next day/week but weaker next month (model indicates +0.15% next day, +2.07% next week, -4.26% next month)—this supports a near-term trade/entry more than a hands-off month-long hold.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: OI Put/Call = 0.8 implies calls outweigh puts in open interest (moderately bullish sentiment).
Activity: Put/Call volume = 0.0, but total volume is extremely light (todays_volume = 1), so the volume signal is not very informative.
Volatility: 30D IV ~37.95% vs HV ~32.91% (options priced a bit richer than realized); IV percentile ~55 suggests mid-range volatility pricing rather than extreme fear/mania.
Volume vs average: today vs 30D avg ~2.04x, but again off a very small base.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst support: Benchmark reiterates Buy and raised PT to $84 (from $79), citing strong underlying momentum.
- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) can re-rate the stock if momentum continues.
- Technical backdrop: Bullish moving-average stack increases probability that dips are bought.
- Business execution (latest reported quarter): strong YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS supports multiple expansion if sustained.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- No fresh news catalysts in the past week; near-term moves may rely more on technical flows until earnings.
- MACD still slightly negative (even though improving), which can cap upside until a clearer momentum turn.
- Model-implied 1-month bias is negative (-4.26%); if the stock stalls near resistance, it may mean-revert.
- Institutional/insider signal is neutral: no strong recent hedge fund or insider accumulation noted.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $1.021B, +9.65% YoY (healthy top-line growth)
- Net income: $19.15M, +35.82% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue)
- EPS: $0.44, +29.41% YoY
- Gross margin: 24.2%, up ~0.29 YoY (slight margin improvement)
Overall: accelerating profitability vs revenue suggests improving operating leverage/efficiency.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2026-01-29 (Benchmark): Raised price target to $84 from $79; maintained Buy.
Rationale from the note: quarter tracked in line with expectations and the analyst cites strong, highly visible underlying momentum.
Wall Street pros/cons (from available data):
- Pros: improving earnings power (NI/EPS up strongly YoY), supportive technical trend, raised PT implies meaningful upside from ~64.
- Cons: limited incremental news flow until earnings; momentum indicators aren’t fully “all-clear” yet (MACD slightly negative).

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CHEF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHEF is 76.71 USD with a low forecast of 66 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 64.140

Low

Averages

76.71

High

Current: 64.140

Low

Averages

76.71

High

Benchmark

Buy

maintain

$79 -> $84

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

Benchmark

Price Target

$79 -> $84

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

Benchmark raised the firm's price target on Chefs' Warehouse to $84 from $79 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The quarter tracked in line with the firm's prior expectations, notes the analyst, who cites strong and highly visible underlying momentum in the company's business for the firm's increased price target.

UBS

Mark Carden

Buy

maintain

$78 -> $80

2025-10-30

Reason

UBS

Mark Carden

Price Target

$78 -> $80

2025-10-30

maintain

Buy

Reason

UBS analyst Mark Carden raised the firm's price target on Chefs' Warehouse to $80 from $78 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

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CHEF Should I Buy

CHEF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Chefs' Warehouse Inc (CHEF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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