Craft: 2026 Oil & Gas Royalty Volumes Near 2025 Record Levels
"Looking ahead to 2026, oil & gas royalty volumes are expected to be near 2025 Full Year record levels at the high end of our 2026 guidance," commented Craft. "Over the past week, commodity benchmark pricing has been volatile, with 2026 oil futures down 3-8% and natural gas futures up 10-15% compared to 2025 averages. February Henry Hub futures climbed to $7.46 per MMBtu on its final trading day compared to $3.68 per MMBtu at the beginning of this year. Lower crude oil prices have created a softer backdrop for acquisition activity. However, we were successful in completing $14.4 million in oil & gas mineral acquisitions during the 2025 Quarter and we remain committed to growing our minerals portfolio moving forward. At the midpoint of our 2026 guidance, coal royalty tons sold are expected to be six million tons, or 25% above 2025, reflecting higher volumes at our Hamilton and Tunnel Ridge mines. Turning to our coal operations, we expect another year of strong operational and financial performance as we build on the progress achieved in 2025," continued Craft. "Our 2026 guidance reflects the anticipated impact of reduced coal sales volumes at our Mettiki mine as disclosed in last week's WARN Act notices. Notwithstanding these reductions, our guidance reflects higher planned coal sales tons in 2026, where previous capital investments in equipment and mine development are driving meaningful productivity gains with total sales tons expected to exceed 2025 levels by 0.8 million to 2.3 million tons, primarily across the Illinois Basin and at Tunnel Ridge. Customer demand across our core markets remains strong, and we have already committed and priced more than 93% of our 2026 sales tons guidance range at the midpoint."
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on ARLP
About ARLP
About the author
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA reached $191.1 million, a 54.1% increase year-over-year, with net income of $82.7 million translating to $0.64 per unit, reflecting the company's success in reducing operating costs and enhancing investment income.
- Sales and Revenue Dynamics: Total revenues were $535.5 million, showing a decline primarily due to lower coal sales and transportation revenues; however, record oil and gas royalty income partially offset this decrease, indicating resilience in the company's revenue streams.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Coal sales volumes for 2026 are projected between 33.75 million and 35.25 million tons, with expected increases in Illinois Basin and Tunnel Ridge volumes despite a significant decline at Mettiki, showcasing the company's positive market demand expectations.
- Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow: Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $280 million and $300 million, while Q4 free cash flow was $93.8 million, with a distribution coverage ratio of 1.29, demonstrating the company's robust financial health and investment capacity.
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Highlights: Alliance Resource Partners reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.64, beating expectations by $0.03, indicating stable profitability; however, revenue of $535.5 million fell 9.3% year-over-year and missed market expectations, reflecting challenges in the coal market.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 coal sales volume is projected to be between 33.75 million and 35.25 million short tons, with Illinois Basin sales expected at 26.00 to 27.00 million short tons and Appalachia at 7.75 to 8.25 million short tons, showing cautious optimism about future market demand.
- Price and Cost Analysis: The expected coal sales price per ton for the Illinois Basin in 2026 is between $50.00 and $52.00, while Appalachia is projected at $66.00 to $71.00; despite rising sales prices, the adjusted EBITDA expense per ton is also increasing, which may impact overall profit margins.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures between $280 million and $300 million for 2026, demonstrating a commitment to future investments, even amid market volatility, while aiming to maintain operations and expand its business.
Alliance Resource Partners Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 2nd
- Earnings Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 2nd before market open, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $556.82 million, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year decline.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, ARLP has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, indicating challenges in profitability amid the current coal cycle, which may impact investor confidence.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Industry Context: With the coal cycle gradually declining, ARLP's income model is under scrutiny, prompting investors to closely monitor how the company maintains its revenue and profit levels in this challenging environment.
Alliance Resource Partners Announces Cash Distribution
- Cash Distribution Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Board approved a cash distribution of $0.60 per unit for the 2025 Quarter, reflecting the company's ongoing cash flow stability and commitment to unitholders.
- Payment Schedule: The cash distribution will be paid on February 13, 2026, with a record date of February 6, 2026, ensuring timely returns for investors and reinforcing confidence in the company's financial health.
- Earnings Report Schedule: ARLP is set to release its financial results for the 2025 Quarter before market opens on February 2, 2026, followed by a conference call at 10:00 AM Eastern, enhancing transparency and investor engagement.
- Tax Compliance Notification: Concurrently, ARLP provided notice to brokers regarding the federal income tax withholding requirements for non-U.S. investors, mandating a withholding rate of the highest applicable rate plus 10%, ensuring compliance and clarity in tax obligations.
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Set to Participate in Investor Conference
Panel Discussion Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. will have select management team members participate in a panel discussion at the AllianceBernstein Energy & Natural Resources Study Group in Houston on November 13, 2025, where they will present on the company's business.
Investor Presentation Availability: An investor presentation related to the panel discussion will be posted on ARLP's website in the "Investors" section prior to the event.
Company Overview: ARLP is the second largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., providing energy to major utilities and industrial users, while also generating income from mineral interests in coal and oil & gas regions.
Future Energy Partnerships: The company is focused on becoming a reliable energy partner by exploring opportunities that support the growth of energy and related infrastructure.
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates for Alliance Resource Partners, Masco, and Warrior Met Coal
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates: On 11/7/25, Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP), Masco Corp. (MAS), and Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) will trade ex-dividend, with respective dividends of $0.60, $0.31, and $0.08 scheduled for payment on 11/14/25 and 11/24/25.
Expected Price Adjustments: Following the ex-dividend date, ARLP shares are expected to drop by approximately 2.44%, MAS by 0.49%, and HCC by 0.12%, based on their recent stock prices.
Dividend Yield Estimates: The estimated annualized yields for the upcoming dividends are 9.75% for ARLP, 1.97% for MAS, and 0.49% for HCC, indicating varying levels of return for investors.
Current Stock Performance: As of Wednesday trading, shares of ARLP, MAS, and HCC have seen declines of about 1.3%, 1.1%, and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting market fluctuations.
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA reached $191.1 million, a 54.1% increase year-over-year, with net income of $82.7 million translating to $0.64 per unit, reflecting the company's success in reducing operating costs and enhancing investment income.
- Sales and Revenue Dynamics: Total revenues were $535.5 million, showing a decline primarily due to lower coal sales and transportation revenues; however, record oil and gas royalty income partially offset this decrease, indicating resilience in the company's revenue streams.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Coal sales volumes for 2026 are projected between 33.75 million and 35.25 million tons, with expected increases in Illinois Basin and Tunnel Ridge volumes despite a significant decline at Mettiki, showcasing the company's positive market demand expectations.
- Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow: Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $280 million and $300 million, while Q4 free cash flow was $93.8 million, with a distribution coverage ratio of 1.29, demonstrating the company's robust financial health and investment capacity.
Alliance Resource Partners Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Highlights: Alliance Resource Partners reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.64, beating expectations by $0.03, indicating stable profitability; however, revenue of $535.5 million fell 9.3% year-over-year and missed market expectations, reflecting challenges in the coal market.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 coal sales volume is projected to be between 33.75 million and 35.25 million short tons, with Illinois Basin sales expected at 26.00 to 27.00 million short tons and Appalachia at 7.75 to 8.25 million short tons, showing cautious optimism about future market demand.
- Price and Cost Analysis: The expected coal sales price per ton for the Illinois Basin in 2026 is between $50.00 and $52.00, while Appalachia is projected at $66.00 to $71.00; despite rising sales prices, the adjusted EBITDA expense per ton is also increasing, which may impact overall profit margins.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans capital expenditures between $280 million and $300 million for 2026, demonstrating a commitment to future investments, even amid market volatility, while aiming to maintain operations and expand its business.
Alliance Resource Partners Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 2nd
- Earnings Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 2nd before market open, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $556.82 million, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year decline.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, ARLP has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, indicating challenges in profitability amid the current coal cycle, which may impact investor confidence.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Industry Context: With the coal cycle gradually declining, ARLP's income model is under scrutiny, prompting investors to closely monitor how the company maintains its revenue and profit levels in this challenging environment.
Alliance Resource Partners Announces Cash Distribution
- Cash Distribution Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Board approved a cash distribution of $0.60 per unit for the 2025 Quarter, reflecting the company's ongoing cash flow stability and commitment to unitholders.
- Payment Schedule: The cash distribution will be paid on February 13, 2026, with a record date of February 6, 2026, ensuring timely returns for investors and reinforcing confidence in the company's financial health.
- Earnings Report Schedule: ARLP is set to release its financial results for the 2025 Quarter before market opens on February 2, 2026, followed by a conference call at 10:00 AM Eastern, enhancing transparency and investor engagement.
- Tax Compliance Notification: Concurrently, ARLP provided notice to brokers regarding the federal income tax withholding requirements for non-U.S. investors, mandating a withholding rate of the highest applicable rate plus 10%, ensuring compliance and clarity in tax obligations.
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Set to Participate in Investor Conference
Panel Discussion Announcement: Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. will have select management team members participate in a panel discussion at the AllianceBernstein Energy & Natural Resources Study Group in Houston on November 13, 2025, where they will present on the company's business.
Investor Presentation Availability: An investor presentation related to the panel discussion will be posted on ARLP's website in the "Investors" section prior to the event.
Company Overview: ARLP is the second largest coal producer in the eastern U.S., providing energy to major utilities and industrial users, while also generating income from mineral interests in coal and oil & gas regions.
Future Energy Partnerships: The company is focused on becoming a reliable energy partner by exploring opportunities that support the growth of energy and related infrastructure.
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates for Alliance Resource Partners, Masco, and Warrior Met Coal
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates: On 11/7/25, Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP), Masco Corp. (MAS), and Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) will trade ex-dividend, with respective dividends of $0.60, $0.31, and $0.08 scheduled for payment on 11/14/25 and 11/24/25.
Expected Price Adjustments: Following the ex-dividend date, ARLP shares are expected to drop by approximately 2.44%, MAS by 0.49%, and HCC by 0.12%, based on their recent stock prices.
Dividend Yield Estimates: The estimated annualized yields for the upcoming dividends are 9.75% for ARLP, 1.97% for MAS, and 0.49% for HCC, indicating varying levels of return for investors.
Current Stock Performance: As of Wednesday trading, shares of ARLP, MAS, and HCC have seen declines of about 1.3%, 1.1%, and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting market fluctuations.
