Commvault Reports Strong Earnings but Weak Outlook Causes Stock Plunge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 30 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CVLT?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Strong Earnings: Commvault reported record revenue of $314 million for Q3 FY2023, a 19% year-over-year increase, with subscription revenue rising 30% to $206 million, indicating robust performance in the data and cybersecurity sector.
- Stock Plunge: Despite exceeding earnings expectations, Commvault's stock fell 33% to $86.80 per share post-earnings, marking a 52-week low, reflecting market disappointment regarding future growth prospects.
- Weak Outlook: The company forecasts FY2026 revenue between $1.177 billion and $1.118 billion, representing only 21% to 22% growth, which is below analysts' expectations of $1.190 billion, signaling signs of slowing growth.
- Valuation Pressure: Following the significant stock drop, Commvault's price-to-earnings ratio has become more reasonable, although analysts still view it as a buying opportunity, with a median price target of $177 suggesting potential for a price doubling.
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Analyst Views on CVLT
Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 182.27 USD with a low forecast of 144.00 USD and a high forecast of 220.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 81.340
Low
144.00
Averages
182.27
High
220.00
Current: 81.340
Low
144.00
Averages
182.27
High
220.00
About CVLT
Commvault Systems, Inc. is a provider of cyber resilience and data protection solutions. The Company’s cyber resilience platform combines data security and rapid recovery at enterprise scale across any workload. The Company provides these products and services for their data across many types of environments, including on-premises, hybrid and multi-cloud. Its offerings are delivered via self-managed software, software-as-a-service (SaaS), integrated appliances, or managed by partners. Its Commvault Cloud offerings are organized into three packages, such as Operational Recovery, Autonomous Recovery and Cyber Recovery. Its Operational Recovery provides backup, verifiable recovery, and cost-optimized cloud workload mobility, helping to ensure data availability and granular recovery, even across multiple clouds. In addition, it also provides customers with a range of offerings, including Cleanroom Recovery, HyperScale X, Air Gap Protect, Cloud Rewind, Clumio Backtrack and Compliance.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Widespread Negative Returns: Year to date, 100 out of 110 constituents in the software sector have posted negative returns, with over 20 stocks down more than 30%, reflecting growing concerns about the sustainability of software business models.
- Deteriorating Technical Indicators: A striking 97 of the IGV ETF's constituents are trading below their 200-day moving average, highlighting a broad breakdown in technical momentum, while the 14-day RSI has plummeted to 16, the lowest since September 2001, indicating extreme market pessimism.
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- Partner Strategy Advancement: Graff's
See More
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- Executive Recognition: Commvault's Michelle Graff and Chad Blackwell have been named to the 2026 CRN Channel Chiefs list, highlighting their exceptional contributions to channel strategy and innovation, which further enhances Commvault's reputation in the industry.
- Partner Strategy: Graff's advancement of the 'Connected Partner Strategy' unifies diverse market routes, focusing on accelerating customer success and adoption, demonstrating Commvault's commitment to delivering industry-leading cyber resilience alongside partners.
- New Framework Implementation: Blackwell's launch of a new partner engagement framework, featuring quarterly partner insights dashboards and revamped channel communications, significantly improved partner alignment and satisfaction, driving deal velocity and pipeline growth.
- Shared Success Philosophy: Commvault executives emphasize close collaboration with partners to achieve mutual customer data protection and resilience, showcasing the company's capability to navigate challenges in a complex environment and solidifying its market leadership.
See More
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- Data Sovereignty Assurance: Commvault Geo Shield is designed to help organizations protect and recover critical data without sacrificing security or recoverability, while ensuring customer control over data location and encryption keys to meet evolving sovereign needs.
- Compliance Support: The solution supports a wide range of federal and industry regulatory requirements, including FedRAMP High and HIPAA, ensuring that customers can effectively manage data in compliance-driven environments, thereby enhancing corporate compliance capabilities and market competitiveness.
- Unified Platform Advantage: Commvault's adaptive architecture separates control and data planes, allowing customers to flexibly choose how data is stored and protected, thus achieving data sovereignty in customer or partner-operated environments and enhancing business resilience.
- Future Deployment Plans: Commvault will announce additional specific deployment models for Geo Shield based on implementation timelines with partners in relevant regions, further expanding its influence and service capabilities in the global market.
See More
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- Tariff Increase Risks: By raising tariffs on South Korea to 25%, Trump risks exacerbating tensions in the already fragile memory chip market, potentially impacting the profitability of related companies.
- French Social Media Legislation: The French lower house has approved legislation to block children under 15 from social media, indicating a tougher stance on Big Tech, which may affect these companies' user bases and advertising revenues.
- India-EU Tariff Agreement: The Indian government has reportedly reached an agreement with the EU to lower tariffs on cars imported from the bloc from 110% to 40%, a policy shift that will promote bilateral trade and potentially attract more foreign investment.
See More
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- Earnings Report Disappointment: Commvault's Q3 earnings revealed a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $314 million, yet the stock plummeted 33% to $86.80 per share, marking a 52-week low, indicating investor concerns over high valuations despite solid performance.
- Strong Subscription Revenue: Approximately two-thirds of the company's revenue comes from software subscriptions, which rose 30% to $206 million, while annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 28% to $941 million, demonstrating sustained demand in the data and cybersecurity sectors.
- Outlook Slightly Weak: Although management forecasts revenue for fiscal 2026 to reach between $1.177 billion and $1.118 billion, reflecting a 21% to 22% growth, this is below analysts' consensus estimates, leading to a cautious market sentiment.
- Analysts Remain Bullish: Despite recent price target downgrades, Commvault's stock is still viewed as a strong buy by analysts, with a median price target of $177, suggesting potential for a doubling of the current price, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects.
See More
