Should I Buy CVLT? CVLT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Commvault Systems Inc (CVLT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

86.070

1 Day change

5.82%

52 Week Range

200.680

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price is in a strong downtrend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and is trading below near-term support (S1 ~83.27), leaving room for a further leg down toward ~71.48.
Options sentiment is bullish-leaning (calls favored), and fundamentals/analyst commentary suggest the post-earnings selloff may be overdone—but the chart has not stabilized yet.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, indicating continued downside pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram -3.778 (below zero) = bearish momentum, though “negatively contracting” hints selling pressure may be slowing.
RSI: RSI_6 ~21 signals oversold conditions (bounce risk exists), but oversold can persist in a downtrend.
Levels: Current ~82.5 is under S1 (83.27); next key support S2 ~71.48. Major overhead resistance remains far above at Pivot ~102.36 then R1 ~121.45.
Pattern-based odds provided: next week skew mildly positive, but next month skew negative (model shows ~-6% bias), aligning with the bearish trend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI 0.35 = call-heavy open interest (bullish tilt). Put/Call volume 0.56 also suggests more call activity than puts.
Activity: Volume vs 30D average is elevated (~15.82x), consistent with post-earnings repricing and active speculation.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~53.41 with IV percentile ~65 indicates options are relatively expensive; market expects larger-than-usual moves.
Takeaway: Options market is leaning bullish on a rebound, but elevated IV implies the market is pricing meaningful downside/upside swings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Fundamentals in the latest quarter were strong (revenue and EPS growth) and multiple analysts characterized the ~30% selloff as an overreaction.
- Product/news flow: Launch of Geo Shield (data sovereignty/compliance) supports the cyber/data-resilience narrative.
- Secular tailwinds remain intact (cyber resilience, data growth, AI-driven data management demand), repeatedly cited by analysts.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Primary overhang: market focus on net-new ARR / SaaS NRR softness and guidance concerns after the Q3 print; confidence needs to rebuild.
- Technical damage: sharp post-earnings breakdown and trading below support increases probability of continuation to lower support (~71.5).
- No supportive near-term flow from “smart money” signals: hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity; no politician/influential buying/selling noted.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3
Revenue: $313.832M, +19.5% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income $17.782M, +61.35% YoY; EPS $0.40, +66.67% YoY.
Margins: Gross margin 80.28%, slightly down (-0.21% YoY) but still very high; overall profitability trend improved meaningfully.
Market interpretation: strong reported quarter, but the stock reaction reflects forward growth durability concerns (ARR mix/duration) rather than current-quarter weakness.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Broad price target cuts on 2026-01-28 across firms (e.g., KeyBanc 152→108; Stephens 162→135; Oppenheimer 180→150; Mizuho 180→140; RBC 167→100; Cantor 144→100), largely after the sharp selloff and mixed ARR optics.
Ratings: Many maintained bullish ratings (Overweight/Outperform/Buy) despite the cuts; a couple remain more cautious (Cantor Neutral, RBC Sector Perform).
Wall Street “pros” view: selloff likely overdone, strong competitive positioning in backup/recovery/cyber-resilience, and demand not seen as structurally broken.
Wall Street “cons” view: uncertainty around ARR mix shift, deal duration, net-new ARR trajectory, and guidance credibility; analysts want cleaner beat/raise execution to restore confidence.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 182.27 USD with a low forecast of 144 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 81.340

Low

144

Averages

182.27

High

220

Current: 81.340

Low

144

Averages

182.27

High

220

KeyBanc

Overweight

downgrade

$152 -> $108

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

Reason

KeyBanc

Price Target

$152 -> $108

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $108 from $152 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following a mixed Q3 as NNARR constant currency missed expectations due to a greater mix shift to SaaS and longer duration term deals. The firm views the mixed Q3 results more so the result of unpredictability on duration and mix shift, and what could have been clearer messaging and expectation setting, rather than a deterioration in demand or change in the competitive environment.

Stephens

Overweight

maintain

$162 -> $135

2026-01-28

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$162 -> $135

2026-01-28

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $135 from $162 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Commvault's net new ARR and SaaS NRR were below expectations, the firm views the 30% stock pullback as "an overreaction" relative to a 100 basis point reduction in the ARR growth outlook, the analyst tells investors. While the quarter appears to be fueling concerns about the durability of displacement-driven growth in data protection, the firm sees "no evidence of a material change in Commvault's fundamental growth outlook," the analyst added.

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CVLT Should I Buy

CVLT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Commvault Systems Inc (CVLT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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