Cleveland-Cliffs Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy CLF?
Source: seekingalpha
- Policy Support for Manufacturing: CEO Lourenco Goncalves highlighted a shift in federal policy favoring American manufacturing, yet noted that steel imports continue to pressure the domestic market, creating a demand gap that negatively impacts steel shipments and asset utilization.
- Growth in Automotive Orders: Goncalves announced that the company has secured more business from automotive clients, which is expected to manifest significantly throughout 2026 as OEMs gradually shift production back to the U.S., enhancing the company's market position.
- Strategic Partnership: The memorandum of understanding with POSCO, Korea's largest steelmaker, illustrates the potential for deepened industrial cooperation, with a definitive agreement targeted for the first half of 2026, marking it as the top strategic priority for both companies.
- Shipment and Price Outlook: CFO Celso Goncalves projected full-year shipments for 2026 to be in the range of 16.5 million to 17 million tons, with first-quarter shipments expected to return to 4 million tons, and anticipated price realizations to increase by approximately $60 per ton compared to Q4 2025.
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Analyst Views on CLF
Wall Street analysts forecast CLF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLF is 12.78 USD with a low forecast of 5.75 USD and a high forecast of 17.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
5 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 14.730
Low
5.75
Averages
12.78
High
17.00
Current: 14.730
Low
5.75
Averages
12.78
High
17.00
About CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a steel producer with a focus on value-added sheet products, particularly for the automotive industry in North America. The Company is vertically integrated from the mining of iron ore, production of pellets and direct reduced iron, and processing of ferrous scrap through primary steelmaking and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing. Its offering includes advanced high-strength steel, hot-dipped galvanized, aluminized, galvalume, electrogalvanized, galvanneal, hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil, plate, grain oriented electrical steel (GOES), non-oriented electrical steel (NOES), stainless steels, tool and die, stamped components, rail, slab and cast ingot. Its Other Businesses primarily include the Tubular and Tooling and Stamping segments that provide customer solutions with carbon and stainless steel tubing products, advanced-engineered solutions, tool design and build, hot- and cold-stamped steel components and complex assemblies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Q4 2025 Results with Narrowed Loss
- Narrowed Loss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a diluted loss per share of $0.43 for Q4 2025, narrowing by approximately 37% from the previous year, yet still missing analyst expectations of $0.62, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability amid persistent weakness in the automotive sector.
- Revenue Miss: The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter was $4.3 billion, flat year-on-year but below the analyst consensus of $4.6 billion, reflecting insufficient market demand and negative impacts from expiring contracts, which led to a more than 19% drop in share price on Monday.
- Cautious Outlook: While Cleveland-Cliffs did not provide specific revenue and earnings guidance, it expects steel shipment volumes of 16.5 to 17.0 million net tons in 2026, slightly above 2025's 16.2 million tons, and anticipates unit cost reductions of about $10 per ton, indicating efforts in cost management.
- POSCO Deal Update: The company reiterated that its deal with Korea's largest steelmaker POSCO remains its top strategic priority, targeting a definitive agreement in the first half of 2026; however, no other meaningful updates were provided, although management emphasized that negotiations are ongoing, reflecting the seriousness of the opportunity.
See More
US Stocks Rebound as Tech Shares Recover
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 0.61%, indicating a rebound in the market driven by recovering tech and chipmaker stocks, reflecting investor confidence in economic growth.
- Mining Stocks Surge: Gold prices increased by over 1% and silver prices jumped more than 6%, boosting mining stocks with Coeur Mining up over 6% and Freeport McMoRan up more than 5%, suggesting rising investor demand for precious metals amid inflation concerns.
- Positive Earnings Outlook: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, indicating sustained corporate profitability that could further drive stock market gains.
- Economic Data Focus: The market is closely watching upcoming employment and inflation data, with January nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 69,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%, as these figures will influence investor expectations regarding future monetary policy, potentially leading to market volatility.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Policy Support for Manufacturing: CEO Lourenco Goncalves highlighted a shift in federal policy favoring American manufacturing, yet noted that steel imports continue to pressure the domestic market, creating a demand gap that negatively impacts steel shipments and asset utilization.
- Growth in Automotive Orders: Goncalves announced that the company has secured more business from automotive clients, which is expected to manifest significantly throughout 2026 as OEMs gradually shift production back to the U.S., enhancing the company's market position.
- Strategic Partnership: The memorandum of understanding with POSCO, Korea's largest steelmaker, illustrates the potential for deepened industrial cooperation, with a definitive agreement targeted for the first half of 2026, marking it as the top strategic priority for both companies.
- Shipment and Price Outlook: CFO Celso Goncalves projected full-year shipments for 2026 to be in the range of 16.5 million to 17 million tons, with first-quarter shipments expected to return to 4 million tons, and anticipated price realizations to increase by approximately $60 per ton compared to Q4 2025.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Disappointing Q4 Results
- Revenue Miss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q4 consolidated revenues of $4.3 billion, which, while consistent with the prior year, fell short of Wall Street estimates, leading to a 19% drop in stock price during Monday's trading.
- Narrowed Net Loss: The company reduced its net loss to $235 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, down from a $434 million loss, or $0.92 per share a year earlier, indicating some operational improvement, yet overall financial performance remains weak.
- Adjusted EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 plummeted to $37 million from $773 million in 2024, highlighting a significant deterioration in operating performance, particularly due to persistently weak production levels in the automotive sector throughout the year.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: The firm anticipates steel shipment volumes of approximately 16.5 to 17 million net tons in 2026, with unit cost reductions of about $10 per net ton compared to 2025, suggesting a potential rebound in performance as the trade environment improves.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Disappointing Q4 Results Amid Optimism for 2026
- Disappointing Performance: Cleveland-Cliffs reported flat sales in Q4, failing to meet analysts' expectations for mid-single-digit growth, resulting in a 25% drop in stock price despite a 50% increase over the past six months.
- Loss Exceeds Expectations: The company's quarterly loss was greater than anticipated, although it showed improvement compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing challenges amid a sluggish automotive market and weak Canadian demand.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: CEO Lourenco Goncalves noted improvements entering 2026, having signed multi-year contracts with major automotive customers, reduced unit costs, extended debt maturities, and lowered capital expenditures, indicating proactive measures to address challenges.
- Expected Shipment Growth: Cleveland-Cliffs anticipates a shipment volume increase of about 3.4% in 2026, aligning with Nucor's 5% growth forecast, suggesting a recovery in steel demand, while investors await further details on strategic partnerships.
See More
US Stocks Dip Slightly as Tech Shares Retreat
- Tech Stock Retreat: Technology stocks are broadly down today, contributing to a 0.03% decline in the S&P 500, a 0.34% drop in the Dow Jones, and a 0.17% decrease in the Nasdaq 100, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment following last Friday's sharp gains.
- Bond Yield Pressure: Rising US bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield up 2 basis points to 4.22%, are exacerbated by Chinese regulators instructing banks to reduce their US debt holdings, reviving concerns over the haven status of US assets and potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Earnings Season Insights: More than half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 79% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, indicating resilience in corporate earnings and potential market support.
- Economic Data Focus: The market is set to focus on upcoming economic data, including a projected 0.8% increase in the employment cost index on Tuesday and a 2.5% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index on Friday, which will provide guidance on future economic trends.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Q4 2025 Results with Narrowed Loss
- Narrowed Loss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a diluted loss per share of $0.43 for Q4 2025, narrowing by approximately 37% from the previous year, yet still missing analyst expectations of $0.62, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability amid persistent weakness in the automotive sector.
- Revenue Miss: The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter was $4.3 billion, flat year-on-year but below the analyst consensus of $4.6 billion, reflecting insufficient market demand and negative impacts from expiring contracts, which led to a more than 19% drop in share price on Monday.
- Cautious Outlook: While Cleveland-Cliffs did not provide specific revenue and earnings guidance, it expects steel shipment volumes of 16.5 to 17.0 million net tons in 2026, slightly above 2025's 16.2 million tons, and anticipates unit cost reductions of about $10 per ton, indicating efforts in cost management.
- POSCO Deal Update: The company reiterated that its deal with Korea's largest steelmaker POSCO remains its top strategic priority, targeting a definitive agreement in the first half of 2026; however, no other meaningful updates were provided, although management emphasized that negotiations are ongoing, reflecting the seriousness of the opportunity.
See More
US Stocks Rebound as Tech Shares Recover
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 0.61%, indicating a rebound in the market driven by recovering tech and chipmaker stocks, reflecting investor confidence in economic growth.
- Mining Stocks Surge: Gold prices increased by over 1% and silver prices jumped more than 6%, boosting mining stocks with Coeur Mining up over 6% and Freeport McMoRan up more than 5%, suggesting rising investor demand for precious metals amid inflation concerns.
- Positive Earnings Outlook: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, indicating sustained corporate profitability that could further drive stock market gains.
- Economic Data Focus: The market is closely watching upcoming employment and inflation data, with January nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 69,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%, as these figures will influence investor expectations regarding future monetary policy, potentially leading to market volatility.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Policy Support for Manufacturing: CEO Lourenco Goncalves highlighted a shift in federal policy favoring American manufacturing, yet noted that steel imports continue to pressure the domestic market, creating a demand gap that negatively impacts steel shipments and asset utilization.
- Growth in Automotive Orders: Goncalves announced that the company has secured more business from automotive clients, which is expected to manifest significantly throughout 2026 as OEMs gradually shift production back to the U.S., enhancing the company's market position.
- Strategic Partnership: The memorandum of understanding with POSCO, Korea's largest steelmaker, illustrates the potential for deepened industrial cooperation, with a definitive agreement targeted for the first half of 2026, marking it as the top strategic priority for both companies.
- Shipment and Price Outlook: CFO Celso Goncalves projected full-year shipments for 2026 to be in the range of 16.5 million to 17 million tons, with first-quarter shipments expected to return to 4 million tons, and anticipated price realizations to increase by approximately $60 per ton compared to Q4 2025.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Disappointing Q4 Results
- Revenue Miss: Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q4 consolidated revenues of $4.3 billion, which, while consistent with the prior year, fell short of Wall Street estimates, leading to a 19% drop in stock price during Monday's trading.
- Narrowed Net Loss: The company reduced its net loss to $235 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, down from a $434 million loss, or $0.92 per share a year earlier, indicating some operational improvement, yet overall financial performance remains weak.
- Adjusted EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 plummeted to $37 million from $773 million in 2024, highlighting a significant deterioration in operating performance, particularly due to persistently weak production levels in the automotive sector throughout the year.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: The firm anticipates steel shipment volumes of approximately 16.5 to 17 million net tons in 2026, with unit cost reductions of about $10 per net ton compared to 2025, suggesting a potential rebound in performance as the trade environment improves.
See More
Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Disappointing Q4 Results Amid Optimism for 2026
- Disappointing Performance: Cleveland-Cliffs reported flat sales in Q4, failing to meet analysts' expectations for mid-single-digit growth, resulting in a 25% drop in stock price despite a 50% increase over the past six months.
- Loss Exceeds Expectations: The company's quarterly loss was greater than anticipated, although it showed improvement compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing challenges amid a sluggish automotive market and weak Canadian demand.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: CEO Lourenco Goncalves noted improvements entering 2026, having signed multi-year contracts with major automotive customers, reduced unit costs, extended debt maturities, and lowered capital expenditures, indicating proactive measures to address challenges.
- Expected Shipment Growth: Cleveland-Cliffs anticipates a shipment volume increase of about 3.4% in 2026, aligning with Nucor's 5% growth forecast, suggesting a recovery in steel demand, while investors await further details on strategic partnerships.
See More
US Stocks Dip Slightly as Tech Shares Retreat
- Tech Stock Retreat: Technology stocks are broadly down today, contributing to a 0.03% decline in the S&P 500, a 0.34% drop in the Dow Jones, and a 0.17% decrease in the Nasdaq 100, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment following last Friday's sharp gains.
- Bond Yield Pressure: Rising US bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield up 2 basis points to 4.22%, are exacerbated by Chinese regulators instructing banks to reduce their US debt holdings, reviving concerns over the haven status of US assets and potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Earnings Season Insights: More than half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 79% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, indicating resilience in corporate earnings and potential market support.
- Economic Data Focus: The market is set to focus on upcoming economic data, including a projected 0.8% increase in the employment cost index on Tuesday and a 2.5% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index on Friday, which will provide guidance on future economic trends.
See More
