Should I Buy CLF? CLF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

14.730

1 Day change

6.35%

52 Week Range

16.700

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Buy now (tactical): price is in a short-term uptrend (bullish moving-average stack) and options positioning is risk-on (low put/call ratios), which fits an impatient buyer looking for near-term follow-through.
Near-term upside setup: price is above the pivot (14.292) and pressing toward first resistance (15.083); a clean push through ~15.10 opens room toward ~15.57.
Key timing catalyst: earnings are 2026-02-09 (QDEC 2025, pre-market), which can accelerate the move either way; current positioning suggests the market is leaning optimistic into the event.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, consistent with an ongoing rebound/uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0445 (below 0) but negatively contracting, implying bearish momentum is fading and a potential bullish turn is developing.
RSI: RSI(6) 55.6 (neutral-to-slightly bullish); not overbought, leaving room for continuation.
Levels: Pivot 14.292 (price 14.71 above it = constructive). Resistance R1 15.083, R2 15.572. Support S1 13.502, S2 13.013.
Pattern-based odds (provided): next day slightly negative bias, but next week +2.62% suggests better short swing potential than immediate day-trade expectancy.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are bullish (more calls relative to puts on both OI and volume).
Activity: Today’s volume (38,836) is below 30-day average ("today vs avg" ~53.6%), so the bullish tilt is more about positioning than a one-day speculative surge.
Volatility: 30D IV ~70 with IV percentile ~70.8 (elevated), implying the market is pricing meaningful movement—consistent with the upcoming earnings window.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst upside case: Morgan Stanley upgrade to Overweight with $17 target highlights potential upside and structural opportunity.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Mixed Wall Street stance: recent downgrades (Seaport to Neutral; KeyBanc to Sector Weight) suggest valuation/cost concerns are now more prominent after the rally.
- Profitability pressure: latest reported quarter still shows net losses and weak/negative margin metrics, limiting how far optimism can run without improved fundamentals.
- Event risk: earnings expectation is EPS est. -0.62, meaning a miss or cautious outlook could quickly reverse the uptrend.
- News tone: attention on a “misleading” government graph adds noise; not directly CLF-specific, but can muddy policy/industry messaging.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $4.734B, +3.61% YoY (top-line improving).
- Net income: - $251M (still a loss; “improved” YoY per data but remains negative).
- EPS: -0.51, down ~1.92% YoY (slightly worse).
- Gross margin: -0.97, down ~58% YoY (material deterioration per snapshot, signaling profitability remains the core issue).
Bottom line: modest revenue growth, but the investment case near-term hinges on expectation of improving steel pricing/cost execution rather than current earnings power.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (last ~3 months): targets and ratings were generally cautious/neutral in late 2025, then Morgan Stanley turned bullish (upgrade to Overweight, PT $17) in early Jan 2026, followed by Seaport downgrade to Neutral after the stock moved above its prior $13 target.
Wall Street pros (bull case): potential for elevated steel pricing/tariff backdrop, strategic/transformational opportunity (MS), and catalysts like liquidity/asset actions referenced by prior coverage.
Wall Street cons (bear case): valuation now less compelling after the run, cost pressures/richer mix, and earnings still negative—supporting a more “wait/neutral” posture from several firms.
Influential buyers/sellers: no notable hedge fund/insider trend flagged; no recent Congress trading data available.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CLF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLF is 12.78 USD with a low forecast of 5.75 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

5 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 13.850

Low

5.75

Averages

12.78

High

Current: 13.850

Low

5.75

Averages

12.78

High

Seaport Research

Buy -> Neutral

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Seaport Research

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

downgrade

Buy -> Neutral

Reason

Seaport Research downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Neutral from Buy. While noting that Cleveland-Cliffs is starting 2026 in "a notably better fundamental position than a year ago," the firm also believes shares are beginning to discount more normalized earnings as its share price has exceeded the firm's prior $13 price target, which has been removed. While factors may drive incremental upside for shareholders from here, "perhaps making this ratings change appear premature in hindsight," the firm is also aware of corresponding downside risks, the analyst added.

Seaport Research

Martin Englert

Buy

Neutral

downgrade

2026-01-23

Reason

Seaport Research

Martin Englert

Price Target

2026-01-23

downgrade

Buy

Neutral

Reason

Seaport Research analyst Martin Englert downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Neutral from Buy.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CLF

Unlock Now

CLF Should I Buy

CLF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch