Can Coinbase really grow bigger than Schwab in 2025? 3 things need to happen.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 18 2024
0mins
Should l Buy SCHW?
Source: MarketWatch
- Market Prediction: Matthew Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management predicts that Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab in market capitalization next year.
- Industry Impact: If this occurs, Coinbase would become the largest brokerage firm globally.
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Analyst Views on SCHW
Wall Street analysts forecast SCHW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SCHW is 116.64 USD with a low forecast of 91.00 USD and a high forecast of 148.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 105.080
Low
91.00
Averages
116.64
High
148.00
Current: 105.080
Low
91.00
Averages
116.64
High
148.00
About SCHW
The Charles Schwab Corporation is a savings and loan holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in wealth management, securities brokerage, banking, asset management, custody, and financial advisory services. The Company provides financial services to individuals and institutional clients through two segments: Investor Services, and Advisor Services. The Investor Services segment provides retail brokerage, investment advisory, and banking and trust services to individual investors, and retirement plan and business services, as well as other corporate brokerage services, to businesses and their employees. The Advisor Services segment provides custodial, trading, banking and trust, and support services to independent registered investment advisors (RIAs), independent retirement advisors, and recordkeepers. Its products and services include brokerage, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), managed investing solutions, alternative investments, banking, and trust.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Schwab Clients Surge in Net Equity Buying in January
- Trading Activity Index Rise: Schwab's Trading Activity Index (STAX) increased to 49.96 in January from 48.48 in December, indicating a resurgence in client stock trading activity and reflecting a rebound in investor confidence in the markets.
- Dominance of Tech Sector: The net buying in January was predominantly in the Information Technology sector, which propelled STAX to a 3.05% increase, marking the largest gain since October 2025, showcasing the sector's strong appeal and investor enthusiasm.
- Generational Investment Differences: During the January STAX period, Generation X (born 1965-1980) was the most aggressively positioned group, while Generation Z (born 1997-2012) showed lower buying confidence, possibly due to concerns about economic prospects and job security, highlighting varying market responses across generations.
- Overall Market Performance: Despite five S&P 500 sectors experiencing outflows, the substantial inflows into Information Technology drove STAX higher, and the S&P 500 index briefly surpassed 7000 points at the end of January, indicating a robust market recovery and optimistic investor sentiment.
See More
Robinhood Markets Rebounds with 13.95% Stock Surge Ahead of Earnings
- Stock Rebound: Robinhood Markets saw its stock price surge by 13.95% to close at $82.82 on Friday, primarily driven by a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, indicating market anticipation for the upcoming earnings report.
- Volume Surge: The company recorded a trading volume of 53.8 million shares, approximately 97% higher than its three-month average of 27.4 million shares, reflecting renewed investor interest in crypto assets.
- Market Dynamics: In the financial services sector, peers Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers Group also saw stock increases of 3.02% and 7.34%, respectively, indicating a broadening investor interest across retail brokerages that further supported Robinhood's stock price.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite the rebound in cryptocurrency prices, investors remain cautious about whether this short-term volatility can translate into sustained trading activity, leading to increased stock price fluctuations for Robinhood, which reflects the market's heightened focus on trading engagement.
See More
Top Strategies: How Advisors Are Allocating $1 Million This Week
Investment Strategies: Financial advisors from Dynasty Financial Partners shared their strategies for investing a million dollars, focusing on asset allocation and inflation protection.
Preferred Sectors: The advisors emphasized diversification while favoring investments in sectors such as artificial intelligence, energy, real estate, and defense.
Unconventional Ideas: Alongside traditional investments, the advisors also highlighted their favorite unconventional investing ideas to enhance portfolio performance.
Market Trends: The responses reflect current market trends and the advisors' insights into navigating economic uncertainties through strategic investments.
See More
SCHW Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $95.00 put option is 17 cents, and if an investor sells-to-open this contract, they will commit to purchasing shares at $95.00, resulting in an effective cost basis of $94.83, which represents approximately a 7% discount to the current share price of $101.78, making it an attractive investment alternative.
- Put Option Yield Potential: Should the put option expire worthless, the premium would yield a 0.18% return on the cash commitment, or an annualized yield of 1.31%, referred to as YieldBoost, indicating potential profitability under current market conditions.
- Call Option Return Analysis: The $112.00 call option has a current bid of 33 cents, and if an investor buys SCHW shares at $101.78 and sells this call, the total return could reach 10.37% if the stock is called away at expiration, although significant upside could be missed if the stock price surges.
- Call Option Risk Assessment: Current data suggests a 74% chance that the $112.00 call option will expire worthless, allowing the investor to retain both the shares and the premium collected, with an additional return of 0.32% or an annualized yield of 2.37%, further enhancing the investment's attractiveness.
See More
U.S. ETF Industry Faces Potential Distribution Fee Changes
- Emerging Distribution Fees: U.S. brokerage firms and custodians may soon impose distribution fees on ETF managers, potentially reshaping the cost structure of the $13.5 trillion U.S. ETF industry, particularly after over a decade of zero-commission trading that has disrupted traditional revenue streams.
- Impact of Zero-Commission Trading: Companies like Robinhood have attracted millions of retail investors with zero trading commissions, forcing traditional brokers like Fidelity and Charles Schwab to eliminate ETF trading fees, which, while retaining clients, has significantly impacted their profitability.
- Changing Cost Structure: J.P. Morgan estimates that the current U.S. ETF management fee pool is around $21 billion, and if intermediaries capture 10% to 20% of ETF expense ratios, the industry could incur an additional $2 billion to $4 billion in distribution costs annually, affecting investor returns.
- Market Competitive Landscape: Large ETF issuers may be better positioned under this new fee structure, while mid-sized firms could face greater pressure, particularly niche and actively managed ETFs that may be the first to feel the impact, potentially halting the decline in their expense ratios.
See More
Robinhood Markets Shares Plunge Amid Crypto Weakness
- Significant Stock Decline: Robinhood Markets closed at $89.91 on Monday, down 9.62%, reflecting investor concerns over weakened cryptocurrency trading volumes that could impact the company's transaction-based revenue.
- Surge in Trading Volume: The trading volume reached 59 million shares, approximately 136% above the three-month average of 25 million shares, indicating heightened market interest in Robinhood's stock, yet failing to counteract the downward price trend.
- Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: Bitcoin has fallen over 12% in the past five days, nearing a ten-month low, suggesting that instability in the crypto market may negatively affect risk appetite among Robinhood's retail users, thereby impacting its revenue streams.
- Revenue Source Risks: As Robinhood primarily earns from payment for order flow, a decline in trading volume could lead to reduced revenue, raising investor concerns about the company's future profitability and putting pressure on its stock price.
See More
Schwab Clients Surge in Net Equity Buying in January
- Trading Activity Index Rise: Schwab's Trading Activity Index (STAX) increased to 49.96 in January from 48.48 in December, indicating a resurgence in client stock trading activity and reflecting a rebound in investor confidence in the markets.
- Dominance of Tech Sector: The net buying in January was predominantly in the Information Technology sector, which propelled STAX to a 3.05% increase, marking the largest gain since October 2025, showcasing the sector's strong appeal and investor enthusiasm.
- Generational Investment Differences: During the January STAX period, Generation X (born 1965-1980) was the most aggressively positioned group, while Generation Z (born 1997-2012) showed lower buying confidence, possibly due to concerns about economic prospects and job security, highlighting varying market responses across generations.
- Overall Market Performance: Despite five S&P 500 sectors experiencing outflows, the substantial inflows into Information Technology drove STAX higher, and the S&P 500 index briefly surpassed 7000 points at the end of January, indicating a robust market recovery and optimistic investor sentiment.
See More
Robinhood Markets Rebounds with 13.95% Stock Surge Ahead of Earnings
- Stock Rebound: Robinhood Markets saw its stock price surge by 13.95% to close at $82.82 on Friday, primarily driven by a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, indicating market anticipation for the upcoming earnings report.
- Volume Surge: The company recorded a trading volume of 53.8 million shares, approximately 97% higher than its three-month average of 27.4 million shares, reflecting renewed investor interest in crypto assets.
- Market Dynamics: In the financial services sector, peers Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers Group also saw stock increases of 3.02% and 7.34%, respectively, indicating a broadening investor interest across retail brokerages that further supported Robinhood's stock price.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite the rebound in cryptocurrency prices, investors remain cautious about whether this short-term volatility can translate into sustained trading activity, leading to increased stock price fluctuations for Robinhood, which reflects the market's heightened focus on trading engagement.
See More
Top Strategies: How Advisors Are Allocating $1 Million This Week
Investment Strategies: Financial advisors from Dynasty Financial Partners shared their strategies for investing a million dollars, focusing on asset allocation and inflation protection.
Preferred Sectors: The advisors emphasized diversification while favoring investments in sectors such as artificial intelligence, energy, real estate, and defense.
Unconventional Ideas: Alongside traditional investments, the advisors also highlighted their favorite unconventional investing ideas to enhance portfolio performance.
Market Trends: The responses reflect current market trends and the advisors' insights into navigating economic uncertainties through strategic investments.
See More
SCHW Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $95.00 put option is 17 cents, and if an investor sells-to-open this contract, they will commit to purchasing shares at $95.00, resulting in an effective cost basis of $94.83, which represents approximately a 7% discount to the current share price of $101.78, making it an attractive investment alternative.
- Put Option Yield Potential: Should the put option expire worthless, the premium would yield a 0.18% return on the cash commitment, or an annualized yield of 1.31%, referred to as YieldBoost, indicating potential profitability under current market conditions.
- Call Option Return Analysis: The $112.00 call option has a current bid of 33 cents, and if an investor buys SCHW shares at $101.78 and sells this call, the total return could reach 10.37% if the stock is called away at expiration, although significant upside could be missed if the stock price surges.
- Call Option Risk Assessment: Current data suggests a 74% chance that the $112.00 call option will expire worthless, allowing the investor to retain both the shares and the premium collected, with an additional return of 0.32% or an annualized yield of 2.37%, further enhancing the investment's attractiveness.
See More
U.S. ETF Industry Faces Potential Distribution Fee Changes
- Emerging Distribution Fees: U.S. brokerage firms and custodians may soon impose distribution fees on ETF managers, potentially reshaping the cost structure of the $13.5 trillion U.S. ETF industry, particularly after over a decade of zero-commission trading that has disrupted traditional revenue streams.
- Impact of Zero-Commission Trading: Companies like Robinhood have attracted millions of retail investors with zero trading commissions, forcing traditional brokers like Fidelity and Charles Schwab to eliminate ETF trading fees, which, while retaining clients, has significantly impacted their profitability.
- Changing Cost Structure: J.P. Morgan estimates that the current U.S. ETF management fee pool is around $21 billion, and if intermediaries capture 10% to 20% of ETF expense ratios, the industry could incur an additional $2 billion to $4 billion in distribution costs annually, affecting investor returns.
- Market Competitive Landscape: Large ETF issuers may be better positioned under this new fee structure, while mid-sized firms could face greater pressure, particularly niche and actively managed ETFs that may be the first to feel the impact, potentially halting the decline in their expense ratios.
See More
Robinhood Markets Shares Plunge Amid Crypto Weakness
- Significant Stock Decline: Robinhood Markets closed at $89.91 on Monday, down 9.62%, reflecting investor concerns over weakened cryptocurrency trading volumes that could impact the company's transaction-based revenue.
- Surge in Trading Volume: The trading volume reached 59 million shares, approximately 136% above the three-month average of 25 million shares, indicating heightened market interest in Robinhood's stock, yet failing to counteract the downward price trend.
- Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: Bitcoin has fallen over 12% in the past five days, nearing a ten-month low, suggesting that instability in the crypto market may negatively affect risk appetite among Robinhood's retail users, thereby impacting its revenue streams.
- Revenue Source Risks: As Robinhood primarily earns from payment for order flow, a decline in trading volume could lead to reduced revenue, raising investor concerns about the company's future profitability and putting pressure on its stock price.
See More
