SCHW Should I Buy
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SCHW is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The bigger-picture trend is still constructive (bullish moving-average stack), but near-term momentum is weakening (MACD histogram negative and expanding) while options positioning is notably defensive (elevated put/call ratios). With price sitting just above the pivot (102.83) and close to first support (100.49), the risk/reward favors waiting rather than buying immediately.
Price/Trend: Bullish moving-average alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the primary trend remains up. Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.119 and negatively expanding signals fading upside momentum / increasing downside pressure in the short term. RSI: RSI_6 at 56.81 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal. Levels: Pivot 102.83 is the near-term line in the sand. Upside resistance at R1 105.17 then R2 106.61. Downside supports at S1 100.49 then S2 99.05. With MACD weakening, a test of ~100.5 is plausible before the next cleaner long entry. Pattern/Stats: Similar-pattern projection suggests roughly flat next-day, slight weakness over the next week (-0.21%), and a positive 1-month bias (+3.27%), reinforcing “near-term choppy, medium-term constructive.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Dividend hike: Board declared a 19% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.32/share (supports shareholder-return narrative).
Business actions: Executive leadership reorganization and merging wealth + banking into a new division (could improve execution/focus if well-received).
Fundamentals backdrop: Latest reported quarter showed strong profit acceleration (EPS and net income up sharply YoY).
Congress activity: Net positive tilt (3 purchases vs 2 sales in last 90 days; median size ~$0.8M).
Insider behavior: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up sharply (+12642.6% over last month), which can cap near-term upside.
Options positioning: Put-heavy flow and elevated IV vs HV indicate near-term caution/hedging.
Market tape: Broader market risk-off today (S&P 500 down ~0.98%) can pressure brokers/financials near term.
Mixed-quarter framing: Some analysts characterized the quarter as “mixed,” shifting focus to guidance quality.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth: Revenue $7.168B (+7.81% YoY), Net Income $2.367B (+37.86% YoY), EPS $1.33 (+38.54% YoY). Margins: Gross margin 88.39 (+10.28% YoY). Takeaway: Clear earnings acceleration vs revenue growth suggests improving profitability/operating leverage—fundamentally supportive, but the stock’s near-term setup is more mixed due to momentum/positioning.
Recent trend: Broadly positive with multiple firms raising price targets in January 2026 and reiterating Buy/Overweight/Outperform (Barclays, UBS, Truist, Deutsche Bank, TD Cowen, Wolfe). Targets cluster in the low-to-high $120s, with TD Cowen highest at $138 and Deutsche at $131; Barclays/UBS around $125. Outlier: BofA remains Underperform with a $94 target. Wall Street pros: Improving net interest income narrative, earnings power trajectory (some see path to ~$7 EPS by 2027), and generally constructive 2026 outlook. Wall Street cons: Mixed-quarter elements, higher expenses, and skepticism about near-term incremental revenue levers (e.g., limited interest/opportunity in prediction-market expansion).
