Bank of America Strategist Urges Investors to Favor Main Street Over Elites
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Source: Benzinga
- Shift to Main Street: Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett urges investors to back U.S. small and mid-cap stocks, asserting that as inflation cools and political pressures rise, markets are quietly pivoting towards Main Street, which is expected to significantly influence investment strategies.
- Diverging Asset Performance: Assets that were punished during the early 2020s bond bear market are beginning to outperform elite 'Davos' trades, and while this divergence may seem modest, historically it often marks the beginning of regime changes, indicating potential major shifts ahead.
- Capital Expenditure Risks: Hartnett warns that former market leaders face risks in shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy business models, with AI hyperscalers projected to spend $670 billion on capex by 2026, consuming 96% of their cash flow, which will fundamentally alter market dynamics.
- Leadership Rotation Pattern: Hartnett observes that major global events typically trigger long-term shifts in market leadership, predicting that 2025 will be the next inflection point, where U.S. small and mid-cap stocks, financials, regional banks, and REITs will outperform high-valuation tech giants.
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Analyst Views on APO
Wall Street analysts forecast APO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APO is 162.77 USD with a low forecast of 136.00 USD and a high forecast of 186.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 126.080
Low
136.00
Averages
162.77
High
186.00
Current: 126.080
Low
136.00
Averages
162.77
High
186.00
About APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a global alternative asset manager and a retirement services provider. It operates through three segments: Asset Management, Retirement Services and Principal Investing. The Asset Management segment focuses on three investing strategies: yield, hybrid, and equity. These strategies reflect the range of investment capabilities across its platform based on relative risk and return. The Retirement Services business is conducted by Athene Holding Ltd (Athene), a financial services company that specializes in issuing, reinsuring, and acquiring retirement savings products designed for the increasing number of individuals and institutions seeking to fund retirement needs. Athene product lines include annuities and funding agreements. The Principal Investing segment includes realized performance fee income, realized investment income from its balance sheet investments, and certain allocable expenses related to corporate functions supporting the entire company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Expectation Adjustment Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions and nine downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have experienced four upward revisions and one downward, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
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- Earnings Season Arrives: Companies like Coinbase, Ford, McDonald's, and Moderna will report earnings next week, with analysts focusing on McDonald's same-store sales, which are expected to rise due to promotional activities, reflecting consumer demand for value products.
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- Inflation Indicator Focus: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Friday, with the market closely monitoring this key indicator's impact on future economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy, potentially influencing interest rate decisions.
See More
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- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
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See More
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- Private Credit Sector: The emergence of private credit "cockroaches" indicates a shift in the market, particularly affecting the software sector.
- Investment Opportunities: This situation may present new investment opportunities in shares of business development companies that hold the debt of these affected companies.
See More
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- Private Credit Sector: The private credit sector is facing challenges, likened to "cockroaches" emerging from the software industry.
- Opportunities in Business Development Companies: This situation may present investment opportunities in business development companies that hold the debt of affected firms.
See More
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- Inflation Metrics Analysis: The January Consumer Price Index is projected to rise by 0.29% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, showing improvement but still falling short of the Fed's 2% target, potentially affecting investor rate expectations.
- Market Reaction and Risks: Recent signs of labor market weakness, including an ADP report indicating only 22,000 new private sector jobs, may heighten expectations for further Fed rate cuts, although investors remain optimistic about economic resilience.
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