Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is technically oversold, but momentum is still deteriorating and headline/legal risk is the dominant driver.
Primary reason to avoid buying immediately: the Epstein-related federal securities law investigation headline is a live, event-driven overhang that can keep pressure on the stock into earnings.
What would change the view to Buy: stabilization/reclaim of the 132.6 pivot with improving MACD (momentum turn) or a clean earnings/investigation update.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggests a potential transition phase, but current momentum signals still favor caution.
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of +3.34% next day, +3.28% next week, +11.09% next month—supports a bounce thesis, but it’s competing with heavy news risk.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning vs. trading sentiment: OI put/call 0.66 suggests more call-heavy open interest (medium-term optimism/positioning), while volume put/call 1.23 indicates more puts traded today (near-term caution/hedging).
Volatility: 30D IV 39.1 vs historical vol 42.1; IV percentile 70.4 → options are relatively expensive vs recent history, consistent with elevated uncertainty.
Activity: today’s option volume ~100% of 30D average and open interest ~102% of average → active but not a blow-off extreme.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
proximity to S1 support (125.1) increases odds of a reflex bounce if selling pressure fades.
Overall: recent quarter shows powerful growth trends, which supports the longer-term bull case, but the stock is currently being driven more by headline risk + near-term sentiment.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: ratings skew bullish (Buy/Overweight/Outperform) with price targets generally raised into late 2025, followed by minor trims from some firms in early Jan 2026.
Recent targets/ratings:
UBS (2025-12-11): Buy, PT $186
Morgan Stanley (2025-11-20): upgraded to Overweight, PT $180
Barclays (2026-01-09): Overweight, PT $168 (trimmed from $172)
BofA (2025-12-10): Buy, PT $164 (trimmed from $168)
Wolfe (2026-01-07): Outperform, PT $166
Wall Street pros: sees Apollo as an attractive way to play private credit/alternatives, with growth expected to re-accelerate and valuation viewed as appealing.
Wall Street cons: concerns around credit performance are debated, and the current investigation headline is the key non-fundamental risk weighing on sentiment.
Influential/political trading: Hedge funds Neutral, insiders Neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast APO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APO is 162.77 USD with a low forecast of 136 USD and a high forecast of 186 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast APO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APO is 162.77 USD with a low forecast of 136 USD and a high forecast of 186 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 126.080
Low
136
Averages
162.77
High
186
Current: 126.080
Low
136
Averages
162.77
High
186
Barclays
Overweight
maintain
$172 -> $168
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$172 -> $168
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Apollo Global to $168 from $172 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the alternative asset manager group as part of its Q4 outlook. Barclays expect realizations to pick up meaningfully across the board. The market-wide concerns around credit performance are overblown, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Wolfe Research
Steven Chubak
Outperform
maintain
$165 -> $166
2026-01-07
Reason
Wolfe Research
Steven Chubak
Price Target
$165 -> $166
2026-01-07
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Wolfe Research analyst Steven Chubak raised the firm's price target on Apollo Global to $166 from $165 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as part of the firm's Top 10 Themes for 2026 note on the Banks, Brokers, and Alternative Managers. Heading into 2026, the firm notes Retail Brokers and Alts are its favorite subsectors.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for APO
