Astrana Health Stock Plummets 22% Amid Medicare Payment Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 28 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ASTH?
Source: Benzinga
- Significant Stock Drop: Astrana Health Inc. shares fell approximately 22% to close at $21.48 on Tuesday, primarily due to CMS's proposed 0.09% payment growth for Medicare Advantage in 2027, indicating weak payment growth that could impact future revenues.
- High Revenue Dependency: Analysts noted that Medicare accounts for about 61% of Astrana Health's revenue, and despite the sharp decline, the stock's drop was more severe than peers like Agilon Health and Alignment Healthcare, which fell around 10% and 12%, respectively, reflecting greater market concerns about Astrana.
- Differentiated Risk Adjustment Practices: Analyst William Blair highlighted that Astrana Health's risk adjustment practices differ from larger payers, relying on direct patient care rather than audio-only visits or standalone chart reviews, resulting in lower exposure to the risk score impacts proposed by CMS.
- Long-Term Value Potential: Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe that CMS's proposals could enhance the company's long-term value, as payers will need to rely on fully delegated care delivery partners to manage patients and costs, potentially leading to more delegated contract agreements in 2027 and beyond.
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Analyst Views on ASTH
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTH is 31.50 USD with a low forecast of 26.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 21.710
Low
26.00
Averages
31.50
High
37.00
Current: 21.710
Low
26.00
Averages
31.50
High
37.00
About ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc. is a physician-centric, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered healthcare company focused on delivering patient-centered care. The Company provides care coordination services to each major constituent of the healthcare delivery system, including patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The Company's segments include Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. Its Care Partners segment is focused on building and managing provider networks by partnering with, empowering, and investing in provider partners aligned on a shared vision for coordinated care delivery. Its Care Delivery organization includes primary care, multi-specialty care, and ancillary care services. Its Care Enablement segment represents a comprehensive platform that integrates clinical, operational, financial, and administrative information. It supports more than 20,000 providers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Astrana Health Stock Plummets 22% Amid Medicare Payment Concerns
- Significant Stock Drop: Astrana Health Inc. shares fell approximately 22% to close at $21.48 on Tuesday, primarily due to CMS's proposed 0.09% payment growth for Medicare Advantage in 2027, indicating weak payment growth that could impact future revenues.
- High Revenue Dependency: Analysts noted that Medicare accounts for about 61% of Astrana Health's revenue, and despite the sharp decline, the stock's drop was more severe than peers like Agilon Health and Alignment Healthcare, which fell around 10% and 12%, respectively, reflecting greater market concerns about Astrana.
- Differentiated Risk Adjustment Practices: Analyst William Blair highlighted that Astrana Health's risk adjustment practices differ from larger payers, relying on direct patient care rather than audio-only visits or standalone chart reviews, resulting in lower exposure to the risk score impacts proposed by CMS.
- Long-Term Value Potential: Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe that CMS's proposals could enhance the company's long-term value, as payers will need to rely on fully delegated care delivery partners to manage patients and costs, potentially leading to more delegated contract agreements in 2027 and beyond.
See More
Astrana Health to Present at 2026 JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, Showcasing AI Innovations
- Conference Participation: Astrana Health will present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing its latest advancements in healthcare technology, which is expected to attract investor and industry attention, thereby enhancing the company's visibility in the healthcare sector.
- Technology-Driven: As a physician-centric, AI-powered healthcare company, Astrana Health supports over 20,000 providers and 1.6 million patients through its proprietary technology platform and aligned provider networks, driving the implementation of value-based care that enhances patient experiences and outcomes.
- Market Positioning: Astrana Health's business model integrates scalable care delivery infrastructure with proactive preventive care capabilities, aiming to improve the overall value of the healthcare system and strengthen the company's strategic position in a competitive healthcare market.
- Future Outlook: By participating in key industry conferences, Astrana Health not only showcases its technological innovations but also paves the way for future investment opportunities, further solidifying its leadership position in the healthcare sector.
See More
Astrana Health to Present at J.P. Morgan 2026 Healthcare Conference, Showcasing AI-Driven Care Solutions
- Leadership Participation: Astrana Health's leadership will present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing their latest advancements in healthcare technology, which is expected to attract investor and industry attention.
- Technology-Driven Care: As a physician-centric company, Astrana Health supports over 20,000 providers and 1.6 million patients through its proprietary technology platform and aligned provider networks, driving the implementation of value-based care that enhances patient experiences and outcomes.
- Market Impact: Astrana Health's participation not only highlights its innovative capabilities in the healthcare sector but also has the potential to strengthen its position in a competitive market, attracting more partners and investments.
- Future Outlook: By showcasing its AI-driven care solutions at the conference, Astrana Health aims to further promote transformative changes in the healthcare system, leading to higher medical value and better patient outcomes.
See More
ASTH Stock Analysis: 52-Week Low at $20.12 with Current Price at $27.40
- Stock Fluctuation: ASTH's 52-week low is $20.12, with a high of $39.97, and the current trading price at $27.40 indicates stability within this range, which may influence investor confidence and market expectations.
- Market Performance: The current price of $27.40 shows a significant gap from the 52-week high, suggesting a cautious market sentiment regarding ASTH's future performance, potentially impacting its fundraising capabilities and investor appeal.
- Technical Indicators: ASTH's stock price has crossed above the 200-day moving average, which may attract the attention of technical analysis investors, thereby influencing short-term trading strategies and market liquidity.
- Investor Sentiment: Although the current stock price is positioned in the middle of the 52-week range, investor sentiment towards ASTH's future performance remains cautious, which could lead to increased market volatility.
See More
New CMS Accountable Care Model Expected to Benefit Value-Based Care Providers
New ACO Model Introduction: CMS has announced the Long-term Enhanced ACO Design (LEAD) model, a 10-year voluntary pilot program starting in 2027, aimed at improving value-based care for healthcare providers.
Improvements Over Previous Model: LEAD addresses financial and administrative challenges faced by providers, offering enhanced cash flow payments and tools to better meet patient needs, particularly for high-needs patients.
Positive Industry Reaction: Jefferies has responded favorably to the LEAD model, indicating it provides future flexibility and stability for value-based care within Medicare fee-for-service.
Supporting Companies: Companies like Astrana Health, agilon health, and Privia Health Group are involved in supporting ACOs, with recent developments in their financial standings and market positions.
See More
Jefferies Keeps Buy Rating on Astrana Health, Reduces Price Target to $37
Real-time Intelligence: Benzinga Pro offers the fastest news alerts for traders, helping them stay informed and make timely decisions in the stock market.
Exclusive Content: The platform provides exclusive stories and insights generated by Benzinga reporters, enhancing the trading experience for its users.
Community Engagement: Over 10,000 serious traders are part of the Benzinga Pro community, fostering a collaborative environment for sharing market intelligence.
Market Success: Traders utilize Benzinga Pro's resources to gain a competitive edge and improve their chances of winning in the markets daily.
See More
Astrana Health Stock Plummets 22% Amid Medicare Payment Concerns
- Significant Stock Drop: Astrana Health Inc. shares fell approximately 22% to close at $21.48 on Tuesday, primarily due to CMS's proposed 0.09% payment growth for Medicare Advantage in 2027, indicating weak payment growth that could impact future revenues.
- High Revenue Dependency: Analysts noted that Medicare accounts for about 61% of Astrana Health's revenue, and despite the sharp decline, the stock's drop was more severe than peers like Agilon Health and Alignment Healthcare, which fell around 10% and 12%, respectively, reflecting greater market concerns about Astrana.
- Differentiated Risk Adjustment Practices: Analyst William Blair highlighted that Astrana Health's risk adjustment practices differ from larger payers, relying on direct patient care rather than audio-only visits or standalone chart reviews, resulting in lower exposure to the risk score impacts proposed by CMS.
- Long-Term Value Potential: Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe that CMS's proposals could enhance the company's long-term value, as payers will need to rely on fully delegated care delivery partners to manage patients and costs, potentially leading to more delegated contract agreements in 2027 and beyond.
See More
Astrana Health to Present at 2026 JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, Showcasing AI Innovations
- Conference Participation: Astrana Health will present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing its latest advancements in healthcare technology, which is expected to attract investor and industry attention, thereby enhancing the company's visibility in the healthcare sector.
- Technology-Driven: As a physician-centric, AI-powered healthcare company, Astrana Health supports over 20,000 providers and 1.6 million patients through its proprietary technology platform and aligned provider networks, driving the implementation of value-based care that enhances patient experiences and outcomes.
- Market Positioning: Astrana Health's business model integrates scalable care delivery infrastructure with proactive preventive care capabilities, aiming to improve the overall value of the healthcare system and strengthen the company's strategic position in a competitive healthcare market.
- Future Outlook: By participating in key industry conferences, Astrana Health not only showcases its technological innovations but also paves the way for future investment opportunities, further solidifying its leadership position in the healthcare sector.
See More
Astrana Health to Present at J.P. Morgan 2026 Healthcare Conference, Showcasing AI-Driven Care Solutions
- Leadership Participation: Astrana Health's leadership will present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing their latest advancements in healthcare technology, which is expected to attract investor and industry attention.
- Technology-Driven Care: As a physician-centric company, Astrana Health supports over 20,000 providers and 1.6 million patients through its proprietary technology platform and aligned provider networks, driving the implementation of value-based care that enhances patient experiences and outcomes.
- Market Impact: Astrana Health's participation not only highlights its innovative capabilities in the healthcare sector but also has the potential to strengthen its position in a competitive market, attracting more partners and investments.
- Future Outlook: By showcasing its AI-driven care solutions at the conference, Astrana Health aims to further promote transformative changes in the healthcare system, leading to higher medical value and better patient outcomes.
See More
ASTH Stock Analysis: 52-Week Low at $20.12 with Current Price at $27.40
- Stock Fluctuation: ASTH's 52-week low is $20.12, with a high of $39.97, and the current trading price at $27.40 indicates stability within this range, which may influence investor confidence and market expectations.
- Market Performance: The current price of $27.40 shows a significant gap from the 52-week high, suggesting a cautious market sentiment regarding ASTH's future performance, potentially impacting its fundraising capabilities and investor appeal.
- Technical Indicators: ASTH's stock price has crossed above the 200-day moving average, which may attract the attention of technical analysis investors, thereby influencing short-term trading strategies and market liquidity.
- Investor Sentiment: Although the current stock price is positioned in the middle of the 52-week range, investor sentiment towards ASTH's future performance remains cautious, which could lead to increased market volatility.
See More
New CMS Accountable Care Model Expected to Benefit Value-Based Care Providers
New ACO Model Introduction: CMS has announced the Long-term Enhanced ACO Design (LEAD) model, a 10-year voluntary pilot program starting in 2027, aimed at improving value-based care for healthcare providers.
Improvements Over Previous Model: LEAD addresses financial and administrative challenges faced by providers, offering enhanced cash flow payments and tools to better meet patient needs, particularly for high-needs patients.
Positive Industry Reaction: Jefferies has responded favorably to the LEAD model, indicating it provides future flexibility and stability for value-based care within Medicare fee-for-service.
Supporting Companies: Companies like Astrana Health, agilon health, and Privia Health Group are involved in supporting ACOs, with recent developments in their financial standings and market positions.
See More
Jefferies Keeps Buy Rating on Astrana Health, Reduces Price Target to $37
Real-time Intelligence: Benzinga Pro offers the fastest news alerts for traders, helping them stay informed and make timely decisions in the stock market.
Exclusive Content: The platform provides exclusive stories and insights generated by Benzinga reporters, enhancing the trading experience for its users.
Community Engagement: Over 10,000 serious traders are part of the Benzinga Pro community, fostering a collaborative environment for sharing market intelligence.
Market Success: Traders utilize Benzinga Pro's resources to gain a competitive edge and improve their chances of winning in the markets daily.
See More
