Should I Buy ASTH? ASTH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

21.100

1 Day change

-2.81%

52 Week Range

39.970

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price trend is decisively bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum is still deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and expanding).
The stock is sitting right on key support (~21.30). That can produce a bounce, but the current setup is still “falling knife” without a confirmed reversal.
Options positioning is mixed and volatility is elevated, which favors waiting for a clearer direction rather than buying immediately.
With no proprietary buy signals (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax both absent) and fundamentals showing profit/margin compression, the risk/reward is not compelling today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.68 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
RSI(6): ~24.7 = oversold/washed-out conditions; oversold can bounce, but it’s not a reversal signal by itself.
Levels: Current pre-market 21.28 is essentially at S1 (21.295). A clean hold/bounce could target the pivot (24.446) first; failure to hold risks a drop toward S2 (~19.35).
Pattern-based odds provided: modest skew to upside over a week/month, but not strong enough to override the downtrend without confirmation.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest put/call ratio 0.15: positioning is call-heavy on OI, typically a bullish longer-look sentiment.
Volume put/call ratio 3.33 today: near-term flow is put-dominant (more hedging/spec downside), though absolute volume is very small (13 contracts), so the signal is noisy.
Volatility: IV 30D ~76.6 with IV percentile ~85% (elevated). Market is pricing large moves; good for option sellers, but for stock buyers it often means uncertainty is high.
Volume vs average: today’s option volume is far above its 30D average baseline (27.66x), but again off a tiny base—treat as a caution flag rather than a firm sentiment read.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

can trigger a reflex bounce if sellers exhaust.
pre-market on 2026-03-02 (Street EPS est. 0.
could re-rate the stock if guidance/contracting updates restore confidence.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Clear downtrend with worsening momentum (bearish MA stack + MACD deterioration) increases probability of support failure.
- Fundamental pressure: profitability/margins collapsed in the latest quarter despite revenue surge (suggests integration/contracting/medical cost pressures).
- Analyst price targets have been cut repeatedly, highlighting reduced confidence and higher perceived risk around 2026 EBITDA and full-risk contract conversion timing.
- No supportive flow signals from insiders/hedge funds (both neutral) and no positive news catalysts in the last week.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $956.0M, up +99.71% YoY (very strong top-line expansion).
Profitability: Net income $0.373M, down -97.68% YoY; EPS $0.01, down -96.97% YoY.
Efficiency: Gross margin 8.53%, down -38.32% YoY.
Takeaway: Growth is headline-strong, but it is not converting into earnings/margins—this is a key reason the stock can stay under pressure until profitability trajectory improves.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings mostly remain Buy/positive, but price targets have moved down materially across firms (clear de-risking).
2026-02-02 BTIG: Buy maintained; PT cut to $40 from $45 (expects pressure unless 2026 guidance/Q4 results offset concerns).
2025-12-12 Needham: Initiated Buy; PT $28 (sees VBC inflection and long-term 20%-30% growth potential).
2025-11-25 Jefferies: Buy maintained; PT cut to $37 from $44 (wants proof points on 1H26 trends; sees MA 2026 upside underappreciated).
2025-11-24 Barclays: Equal Weight; PT cut to $26 from $36 (contracting trade-offs raise risk to 2026/2027 EBITDA targets).
2025-11-10 TD Cowen: Buy maintained; PT cut to $35 from $40 (cautious on Medicaid/VBC environment).
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros = long-term VBC/risk-deal growth opportunity and potential MA upside; Cons = near-term execution/medical cost trend uncertainty and reduced confidence shown by widespread PT cuts.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ASTH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTH is 31.5 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 21.710

Low

Averages

31.5

High

Current: 21.710

Low

Averages

31.5

High

BTIG

Buy

downgrade

$45 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

BTIG

Price Target

$45 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

downgrade

Buy

Reason

BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Astrana Health to $40 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q4 for Healthcare IT and Digital Health names. High medical trend is good for volume driven, fee-for-service stocks but unfavorable for value-based care stocks, and given macro challenges, the company may remain under pressure unless the management can offset investor concerns with favorable 2026 guidance and Q4 earnings, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Needham

Matthew Shea

initiated

$28

2025-12-12

Reason

Needham

Matthew Shea

Price Target

$28

2025-12-12

initiated

Reason

Needham analyst Matthew Shea initiated coverage of Astrana Health with a Buy rating and $28 price target. The firm believes value-based care "is at an inflection point," with higher reimbursement rates and heightened utilization working their way into benchmarks. Astrana is "leaning into full risk deals at a greater rate than others in our coverage," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham believes the shift to risk and organic growth opportunities in core and emerging markets can drive 20%-30% growth for Astrana Health over the long term.

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ASTH Should I Buy

ASTH Should I Buy

Should You Buy Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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