Arm Holdings plc to Join the Nasdaq-100 Index® Beginning June 24, 2024
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Analyst Views on ARM
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- Unique Business Model: Arm Holdings licenses its CPU designs and earns royalties from sales, and while concerns about declining production in the smartphone sector have spooked investors, its actual exposure is less than perceived, demonstrating the resilience of its business model.
- Surge in R&D Spending: Arm's R&D expenditure jumped 46% on a non-GAAP basis to $512 million, reflecting significant investment in new solutions like edge AI and physical AI, indicating strong future growth potential.
- Rapid Data Center Growth: Arm's revenue from data centers more than doubled year-over-year, and it expects to capture 50% of the CPU market share among top hyperscalers by year-end, showcasing its growth potential in this massive market.
- Valuation Risks: Despite a 26% revenue growth in Q3, Arm's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 60, suggesting high market expectations, which necessitates careful evaluation of its growth potential relative to its current valuation.
- Tech Stock Retreat: Technology stocks are broadly down today, contributing to a 0.03% decline in the S&P 500, a 0.34% drop in the Dow Jones, and a 0.17% decrease in the Nasdaq 100, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment following last Friday's sharp gains.
- Bond Yield Pressure: Rising US bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield up 2 basis points to 4.22%, are exacerbated by Chinese regulators instructing banks to reduce their US debt holdings, reviving concerns over the haven status of US assets and potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Earnings Season Insights: More than half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 79% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, indicating resilience in corporate earnings and potential market support.
- Economic Data Focus: The market is set to focus on upcoming economic data, including a projected 0.8% increase in the employment cost index on Tuesday and a 2.5% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index on Friday, which will provide guidance on future economic trends.

Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector saw a 4% surge on Friday, as indicated by the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF.
Weekly Closing Status: Despite the Friday surge, the ETF closed the week down 1.9%, marking its second-largest trading volume in nearly four years.
2026 Performance Context: Technology remains the worst-performing sector among the 11 S&P sectors in 2026, with a decline of 2%.
Market Trends: The fluctuations highlight ongoing volatility and challenges within the technology sector amidst broader market conditions.

Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector saw a 4% surge on Friday, as indicated by the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF.
Weekly Closing Status: Despite the Friday surge, the ETF closed the week down 1.9%, marking its second-largest trading volume in nearly four years.
2026 Performance Context: Technology remains the worst-performing sector among the 11 S&P sectors in 2026, with a decline of 2%.
Market Trends: The fluctuations highlight ongoing volatility and challenges within the technology sector amidst broader market conditions.
- Musk Ordered to Testify: A federal judge has ruled that Elon Musk must testify regarding his role in dismantling USAID, rejecting his legal team's attempt to avoid questioning, which could impact Musk's reputation and future business endeavors.
- Alphabet Beats Earnings Estimates: Alphabet reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83 billion, surpassing the Street consensus estimate of $111.31 billion, with earnings per share of $2.82 exceeding expectations of $2.63, indicating strong performance in advertising and cloud services that may drive stock price increases.
- Amazon Delivery Milestone: Amazon announced it delivered over 13 billion items globally in 2025, with more than 8 billion items reaching U.S. Prime members the same or next day, a speed enhancement that will further strengthen its competitive position in the e-commerce market.
- Tesla's New Model Launch: Tesla unveiled a new All-Wheel Drive variant of the Model Y in the U.S. and Puerto Rico following Elon Musk's announcement of discontinuing the Model S and X, which could attract more consumers and enhance market share.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Arm's data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year in the most recent quarter, indicating strong potential in this rapidly growing market, with expectations to capture 50% of the CPU market share among top hyperscalers by year-end.
- Increased R&D Investment: The company ramped up its R&D spending by 46% year-over-year to $512 million, reflecting Arm's commitment to investing in new areas like Edge AI and Physical AI, aiming to achieve higher royalty rates and licensing fees through new products.
- Market Reaction Volatility: Although Arm's stock initially fell after its earnings report, it rebounded during regular trading, suggesting that the market's understanding of its unique business model remains flawed, particularly against the backdrop of weakness in the smartphone sector.
- Future Growth Potential: Arm anticipates that its new products will generate higher royalty revenues, and while its current growth may not match that of other AI companies like Nvidia, its upcoming developments are still worth watching, especially in the early stages of the AI revolution.









