Should I Buy ARM? ARM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

123.700

1 Day change

11.56%

52 Week Range

183.160

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price trend is still bearish (stacked bearish moving averages) and short-term statistical pattern odds skew negative (next week/month).
Near-term catalyst risk is high with earnings after-hours on 2026-02-04; options flow is leaning defensive (put volume > call volume).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Decision: Hold/avoid initiating a new position pre-earnings; reassess after earnings and price confirms a trend turn above key resistance.

Technical Analysis

Pre-market price ~104.5, sitting just above first support S1 ~103.78; a break below increases downside risk toward S2 ~98.61.
Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the broader downtrend is intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.1 (still positive) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than strengthening.
RSI_6 ~30.6 (near oversold/low area), which can produce bounces, but it’s not enough to override the bearish MA structure.
Key levels: Pivot 112.16 is the first major reclaim level; resistance overhead at 120.54 (R1) then 125.71 (R2).

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: OI put/call ~0.95 is roughly balanced/slightly call-leaning, but put volume dominance (1.48) suggests near-term hedging/bearish positioning into the event.
Volatility: 30D IV ~58.27 vs HV ~59.82 (IV slightly below realized), with IV percentile ~59 (not cheap). Market is pricing meaningful movement but not at extreme panic levels.
Activity: today’s option volume ~32k vs 30D average (shown as ~62.6% of avg), indicating activity is not unusually elevated; positioning looks cautious rather than euphoric.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings on 2026-02-04 (after hours) with Street expecting EPS ~0.41 and revenue ~$1.23B; upside could re-rate the stock quickly from near-support levels.
- News tailwinds: long-term Apple agreement extending to 2040 and continued relevance of Arm architecture for AI/data center efficiency (e.g., hyperscaler adoption).
- Strategic narrative remains strong: potential “company-changing” initiatives cited by bulls (custom server CPU / AI XPU/ASIC direction).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical structure remains bearish; rallies are more likely to be sold until ARM reclaims the ~112 pivot and moving averages start to turn.
- Options tape into earnings is defensively skewed (put volume > call volume), implying traders are bracing for downside or hedging.
- Street concern that forward estimates need a reset (recent target cuts) and skepticism about near-term leverage to the AI cycle (per bearish analyst view).
- Pattern-based forecast provided: estimated probabilities skew to -3.54% next week and -6.71% next month.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2.
Growth: Revenue $1.135B, +34.48% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Profitability: Net income $238M, +122.43% YoY; EPS $0.22, +120% YoY (operating leverage is improving).
Margins: Gross margin 97.44% (+1.28% YoY), consistent with a high-margin licensing/royalty model and supportive of long-term earnings power.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: multiple firms cut price targets (UBS 195→175; Wells Fargo 195→160; BofA 205→145) while mostly maintaining Buy/Overweight-type ratings—net message: still like the story, but expectations/valuation are being tempered.
Upgrades/support: Susquehanna upgraded to Positive (PT $150) citing an “excellent setup” after underperformance; Oddo BHF upgraded to Outperform (PT $170).
Bear case on the Street: Goldman downgraded to Sell (PT $120) citing limited AI-cycle leverage and transition risk.
Wall Street pros: durable ecosystem, expanding data-center footprint, strong margin model, and strategic AI initiatives.
Wall Street cons: visibility/estimate-reset risk, execution risk if moving toward more chip-making, and valuation sensitivity.

20 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARM is 173.44 USD with a low forecast of 120 USD and a high forecast of 215 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

14 Buy

4 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 110.880

Low

120

Averages

173.44

High

215

Current: 110.880

Low

120

Averages

173.44

High

215

JPMorgan

Overweight -> Buy

downgrade

$180 -> $145

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$180 -> $145

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Overweight -> Buy

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Arm to $145 from $180 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported solid fiscal Q3 results on better than expected royalty revenue from smartphones and cloud data centers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

UBS

Timothy Arcuri

Buy

downgrade

$175 -> $170

2026-02-05

New

Reason

UBS

Timothy Arcuri

Price Target

$175 -> $170

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target on Arm (ARM) to $170 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While Arm posted a strong CPU ramp, OpEx and SoftBank (SFTBY) are clouding the narrative, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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ARM Should I Buy

ARM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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