Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Reports Strong Loan Activity with $3B in Year-to-Date Originations as Capital Shifts from Targeted Assets
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 31 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ARI?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Management Insights: CEO Stuart Rothstein reported strong origination activity with over $19 billion in commercial real estate loans closed to date, and emphasized the importance of European expansion as a differentiating factor for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI).
Financial Performance: ARI reported a GAAP net income of $48 million and distributable earnings of $42 million for Q3 2025, with a portfolio carrying value of $8.3 billion and a weighted average unlevered yield of 7.7%.
Outlook and Strategy: Management anticipates that capital rotation from focus assets will enhance earnings, with expectations to exit the Brook investment in late 2026 and ongoing efforts to monetize assets like 111 West 57th Street.
Risks and Concerns: The company faces unpredictability in asset monetization timing, particularly with ongoing bankruptcy proceedings at Liberty Center, and acknowledges the lumpy nature of repayment pacing quarter-to-quarter.
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Analyst Views on ARI
Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARI is 10.56 USD with a low forecast of 9.50 USD and a high forecast of 11.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 10.720
Low
9.50
Averages
10.56
High
11.00
Current: 10.720
Low
9.50
Averages
10.56
High
11.00
About ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company primarily originates, acquires, invests in and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. Its principal business objective is to acquire its target assets in order to provide attractive risk- adjusted returns to its stockholders over the long term, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. Its investment strategy is to identify opportunities within its target assets through its manager and its affiliates as well as their platform, which integrates real estate experience with private equity and capital markets in transaction sourcing, underwriting, execution, asset operation, management and disposition. It targets assets that are secured by real estate throughout the United States and Europe. The Company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Announces 2025 Distribution Tax Treatment
- Distribution Tax Classification: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance anticipates a $0.25 per share distribution for its common stock in 2025, which may qualify for a 20% deduction under Section 199A, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Preferred Stock Dividend Details: The company’s 7.25% Series B-1 preferred stock will also yield a $0.453125 per share distribution, ensuring stable returns for preferred shareholders and reflecting robust capital management strategies.
- Cash Distribution Treatment: The cash distribution on January 15, 2026, will be treated as a 2025 distribution, indicating transparency in tax handling and helping to bolster investor confidence in the company's financial practices.
- Investor Consultation Recommendation: The company encourages shareholders to consult tax advisors regarding their specific tax treatment, highlighting its commitment to shareholder interests and aiming to enhance understanding and trust in its distribution policies.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Sells $9B Loan Portfolio to Athene Holding
- Loan Portfolio Sale: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) announced the sale of a ~$9 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding, with the purchase price based on 99.7% of total loan commitments, indicating strong market positioning.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the announcement, ARI's shares rose 4.35% in pre-market trading to $10.56, reflecting positive market sentiment and increased investor confidence in the company's prospects.
- Cash Flow Expectations: Post-transaction, ARI anticipates having ~$1.4 billion in net cash and ~$1.7 billion in common stockholders' equity, providing ample funding for future investments and strategic acquisitions.
- Strategic Evaluation Plan: ARI plans to spend the remainder of the year evaluating a range of commercial real estate-related strategies, including strategic M&A opportunities, aiming to enhance current yield and position its shares to trade at or above book value.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Sees 144.2% Growth in 2025 EPS Estimates
- Industry Trend Improvement: The mREIT sector is expected to see asset value improvement driven by declining mortgage rates following three Fed rate cuts this year, enhancing profitability for companies in the space.
- Apollo Financing Strategy: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance originated $1 billion in new loans in Q3, leveraging its strong real estate credit platform, with earnings growth anticipated to materialize in Q4 2025.
- Ellington Diversified Investments: Ellington Financial maintains low leverage and a diversified portfolio with dynamic hedging strategies, projecting a 25.3% growth in 2025 EPS, demonstrating resilience amid market volatility.
- NexPoint Market Outlook: NexPoint focuses on multi-family and single-family rental markets, with a 1.7% growth in 2025 EPS estimates, reflecting optimism about long-term housing demand trends.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. Offers $1 Annual Dividend, Attracting Value Investors
- Dividend Appeal: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. offers an annual dividend of $1, distributed quarterly, which attracts value investors seeking stable income, although the level of dividends may be uncertain due to market volatility.
- Unique Nature of REITs: As a Real Estate Investment Trust, Apollo is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders annually, which can lead to high dividend yields but also introduces volatility in payment levels, potentially affecting investor confidence.
- Importance of Dividend History: The report emphasizes that studying a company's long-term dividend history is crucial for assessing the sustainability of current dividends, allowing investors to evaluate future payout potential through historical data analysis.
- Investment Strategy: By utilizing a proprietary DividendRank formula, investors can identify the most attractive high-yield REITs, aiding them in making more informed investment decisions in a complex market environment.
See More
Arika Resources Insiders Purchase AU$561k in Shares, Indicating Confidence
- Insider Purchase Signal: Arika Resources' Non-Executive Chairman Roger Steinepreis purchased AU$561k worth of shares at AU$0.023 each, indicating insider confidence despite the lower price compared to the current AU$0.031.
- Ongoing Buying Trend: Over the past year, insiders at Arika Resources have consistently bought shares without selling, reflecting a positive outlook from management and enhancing trust among minority shareholders.
- Insider Ownership Ratio: Insiders own approximately AU$6.4 million in shares, representing 18% of the company, which, while not exceptional, suggests a degree of alignment between management and smaller shareholders.
- Risk Warnings: Despite the positive insider buying trend, there are three warning signs for Arika Resources, two of which could pose threats to the company's future, indicating that investors should remain cautious.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Declares $0.25 Dividend Per Share
- Dividend Declaration: Apollo Commercial Real Estate's Board of Directors has declared a $0.25 per share dividend, payable on January 15, 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to maintaining cash flow stability, which aims to enhance shareholder confidence and attract more investors.
- Shareholder Returns: This dividend payment will benefit common stockholders of record as of December 31, 2025, indicating the company's ability to sustain shareholder returns in the current economic environment, thus reflecting its financial robustness and market confidence.
- Management Background: Apollo Commercial Real Estate is externally managed by ACREFI Management, an indirect subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, which manages approximately $908 billion in assets as of September 30, 2025, showcasing strong management capabilities and market influence.
- Market Outlook: Despite challenges from rising interest rates and inflation, the company demonstrates confidence in future market conditions through its stable dividend policy, aiming to attract long-term investors and enhance its competitive position in the market.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Announces 2025 Distribution Tax Treatment
- Distribution Tax Classification: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance anticipates a $0.25 per share distribution for its common stock in 2025, which may qualify for a 20% deduction under Section 199A, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Preferred Stock Dividend Details: The company’s 7.25% Series B-1 preferred stock will also yield a $0.453125 per share distribution, ensuring stable returns for preferred shareholders and reflecting robust capital management strategies.
- Cash Distribution Treatment: The cash distribution on January 15, 2026, will be treated as a 2025 distribution, indicating transparency in tax handling and helping to bolster investor confidence in the company's financial practices.
- Investor Consultation Recommendation: The company encourages shareholders to consult tax advisors regarding their specific tax treatment, highlighting its commitment to shareholder interests and aiming to enhance understanding and trust in its distribution policies.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Sells $9B Loan Portfolio to Athene Holding
- Loan Portfolio Sale: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) announced the sale of a ~$9 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding, with the purchase price based on 99.7% of total loan commitments, indicating strong market positioning.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the announcement, ARI's shares rose 4.35% in pre-market trading to $10.56, reflecting positive market sentiment and increased investor confidence in the company's prospects.
- Cash Flow Expectations: Post-transaction, ARI anticipates having ~$1.4 billion in net cash and ~$1.7 billion in common stockholders' equity, providing ample funding for future investments and strategic acquisitions.
- Strategic Evaluation Plan: ARI plans to spend the remainder of the year evaluating a range of commercial real estate-related strategies, including strategic M&A opportunities, aiming to enhance current yield and position its shares to trade at or above book value.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Sees 144.2% Growth in 2025 EPS Estimates
- Industry Trend Improvement: The mREIT sector is expected to see asset value improvement driven by declining mortgage rates following three Fed rate cuts this year, enhancing profitability for companies in the space.
- Apollo Financing Strategy: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance originated $1 billion in new loans in Q3, leveraging its strong real estate credit platform, with earnings growth anticipated to materialize in Q4 2025.
- Ellington Diversified Investments: Ellington Financial maintains low leverage and a diversified portfolio with dynamic hedging strategies, projecting a 25.3% growth in 2025 EPS, demonstrating resilience amid market volatility.
- NexPoint Market Outlook: NexPoint focuses on multi-family and single-family rental markets, with a 1.7% growth in 2025 EPS estimates, reflecting optimism about long-term housing demand trends.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. Offers $1 Annual Dividend, Attracting Value Investors
- Dividend Appeal: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. offers an annual dividend of $1, distributed quarterly, which attracts value investors seeking stable income, although the level of dividends may be uncertain due to market volatility.
- Unique Nature of REITs: As a Real Estate Investment Trust, Apollo is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders annually, which can lead to high dividend yields but also introduces volatility in payment levels, potentially affecting investor confidence.
- Importance of Dividend History: The report emphasizes that studying a company's long-term dividend history is crucial for assessing the sustainability of current dividends, allowing investors to evaluate future payout potential through historical data analysis.
- Investment Strategy: By utilizing a proprietary DividendRank formula, investors can identify the most attractive high-yield REITs, aiding them in making more informed investment decisions in a complex market environment.
See More
Arika Resources Insiders Purchase AU$561k in Shares, Indicating Confidence
- Insider Purchase Signal: Arika Resources' Non-Executive Chairman Roger Steinepreis purchased AU$561k worth of shares at AU$0.023 each, indicating insider confidence despite the lower price compared to the current AU$0.031.
- Ongoing Buying Trend: Over the past year, insiders at Arika Resources have consistently bought shares without selling, reflecting a positive outlook from management and enhancing trust among minority shareholders.
- Insider Ownership Ratio: Insiders own approximately AU$6.4 million in shares, representing 18% of the company, which, while not exceptional, suggests a degree of alignment between management and smaller shareholders.
- Risk Warnings: Despite the positive insider buying trend, there are three warning signs for Arika Resources, two of which could pose threats to the company's future, indicating that investors should remain cautious.
See More
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Declares $0.25 Dividend Per Share
- Dividend Declaration: Apollo Commercial Real Estate's Board of Directors has declared a $0.25 per share dividend, payable on January 15, 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to maintaining cash flow stability, which aims to enhance shareholder confidence and attract more investors.
- Shareholder Returns: This dividend payment will benefit common stockholders of record as of December 31, 2025, indicating the company's ability to sustain shareholder returns in the current economic environment, thus reflecting its financial robustness and market confidence.
- Management Background: Apollo Commercial Real Estate is externally managed by ACREFI Management, an indirect subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, which manages approximately $908 billion in assets as of September 30, 2025, showcasing strong management capabilities and market influence.
- Market Outlook: Despite challenges from rising interest rates and inflation, the company demonstrates confidence in future market conditions through its stable dividend policy, aiming to attract long-term investors and enhance its competitive position in the market.
See More
