Buy now: trend is bullish and the $9B loan-portfolio sale is a material de-risking/liquidity catalyst that can support a re-rating.
Near-term, ARI is slightly overbought (RSI elevated) and sits just below first resistance ($11.01), but given you’re impatient and unwilling to wait for a “perfect” entry, the current pre-market level ($10.87) is still an attractive buy zone vs. Wall St. targets.
Volatility: IV 30d 15.14% with IV percentile 8 / IV rank 3.07 → options are priced cheaply vs. recent history (market not pricing big swings).
Activity: Today’s option volume is modest (44 contracts) and below typical 10d average (72), suggesting no panic hedging and no major speculative surge.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Major balance-sheet catalyst: Sale of a ~$9B commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene; ARI expects ~$1.4B net cash post-transaction and ~$1.7B common equity—supports flexibility (buybacks, redeployment, de-risking).
Market reaction: Shares popped on the announcement (positive tape/confirmation of sentiment).
Distribution/tax angle: Communication around distributions (including potential Section 199A treatment) supports income-focused investor interest.
Upcoming event: Earnings on 2026-02-09 (after hours) can be a catalyst if guidance/portfolio strategy is well received.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
could introduce volatility if book value, credit marks, or forward earnings power disappoint.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $193.8M, +941.92% YoY (very large jump; likely mix/portfolio and transaction-related effects—still a clear top-line surge).
Profitability/EPS: Net income $47.0M (-149.33% YoY) and EPS $0.34 (-149.28% YoY)—despite revenue strength, earnings power versus last year weakened materially.
Margins: Reported gross margin shows a large YoY decline (data suggests significant volatility/one-offs), reinforcing that results may be driven by marks/transactions rather than stable run-rate profitability.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Net-positive bias recently.
JPMorgan (2026-01-23): Kept Overweight, raised price target to $12 from $11 (selective but favorable REIT macro view).
Keefe Bruyette (2025-11-06): Kept Outperform, trimmed price target to $10.75 from $11.
Wall St. pros vs cons:
Pros: Targets cluster around ~$10.75–$12, implying upside from ~$10.87; ratings remain constructive (Overweight/Outperform).
Cons: Target trimming from KBW and “risk-aware” language reflect ongoing concern around CRE/REIT macro and earnings durability.
Politicians/Congress trades: No recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARI is 10.56 USD with a low forecast of 9.5 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARI is 10.56 USD with a low forecast of 9.5 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 10.720
Low
9.5
Averages
10.56
High
11
Current: 10.720
Low
9.5
Averages
10.56
High
11
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$11 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$11 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $12 from $11 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the mortgage real estate investment trust group a part of a Q4 preview. The macro environment for REITs remains "mixed but still favorable," with the U.S. economy showing resilience even as inflation tracks above policy targets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan keeps a "selective and risk-aware stance across the REIT sector."
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
downgrade
$11
2025-11-06
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$11
2025-11-06
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $10.75 from $11 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
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