Analysts Favor Novavax Over Moderna After $30M Pfizer Licensing Deal
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 22 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MRNA?
Source: stocktwits
- Analyst Rating Divergence: Despite Moderna's 39% stock price increase over the past year, analysts remain cautious, assigning a ‘Hold’ rating with a price target of $37.40, indicating a 25% downside risk, reflecting concerns about its future performance.
- Optimistic Outlook for Novavax: Novavax closed at $9.90, with analysts projecting a 12-month price target of $12.89, suggesting a 30% upside, indicating confidence in its growth potential.
- Significant Licensing Agreement: Novavax's non-exclusive licensing deal with Pfizer includes a $30 million upfront payment and up to $500 million in development and sales milestones, showcasing its strategic positioning in the vaccine market and potential future revenue.
- High Market Sentiment: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for both Moderna and Novavax is ‘extremely bullish’, with Novavax's message activity surging over 600% in the past year, indicating strong investor confidence in its future performance.
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Analyst Views on MRNA
Wall Street analysts forecast MRNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRNA is 29.36 USD with a low forecast of 17.00 USD and a high forecast of 63.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
14 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 40.870
Low
17.00
Averages
29.36
High
63.00
Current: 40.870
Low
17.00
Averages
29.36
High
63.00
About MRNA
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company. The Company is advancing a new class of medicines made of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). It is developing therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases and autoimmune diseases. mRNA medicines are designed to direct the body’s cells to produce intracellular, membrane or secreted proteins that have a therapeutic or preventive benefit with the potential to address a spectrum of diseases. The Company’s diverse development pipeline consists of 44 therapeutic and vaccine programs, 11 of which are in late-stage development. Its commercial products include Spikevax (its COVID vaccine) and mRESVIA (its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine). Additionally, it has achieved four positive Phase III data readouts for its COVID vaccine (mRNA-1283), its RSV vaccine for high-risk adults aged 18 to 59 (mRNA-1345), its seasonal flu+COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083), and its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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