Should I Buy MRNA? MRNA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Moderna Inc (MRNA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

41.010

1 Day change

0.34%

52 Week Range

55.200

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price action is weak (bearish MACD expansion) and the stock is sitting below key pivot resistance (45.74) with momentum still pointing down.
Near-term setup is event-risk heavy with earnings on 2026-02-13 (pre-market) and a very negative EPS expectation (Est. -2.60), which is unfavorable for an impatient buyer.
Sentiment is not supportive: hedge funds are selling aggressively (+437% QoQ selling), and Street targets skew below/near the current price.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram -0.926 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
RSI(6) 37.37 → weak/near-oversold but not showing a clear reversal signal.
Levels: Current 41.35 is below S1 (41.953) and above S2 (39.617) → price is in a vulnerable support zone; a break toward ~39.6 is plausible if selling persists.
Resistance overhead: Pivot 45.735 then R1 49.517 → the stock would need a sizable rebound to regain a bullish structure.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: OI put/call 1.06 suggests slightly bearish/defensive positioning (more puts than calls outstanding).
Flow today: volume put/call 0.97 is roughly neutral on the day, not a clear bullish “dip-buying” signal.
Volatility: 30D IV 81.16 with IV percentile 83.27 (elevated) → options market is pricing large moves; this typically reflects uncertainty into catalysts (earnings soon).
Open interest is large (total OI ~1.02M), implying the stock can react sharply around key dates/levels as positions adjust.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst on 2026-02-13 (pre-market): any upside surprise vs very low expectations could trigger a sharp relief rally.
- New leveraged single-name ETF (MRNX) may increase short-term trading activity/attention in MRNA, occasionally improving liquidity and near-term momentum.
- Gross margin remains high (86.22% in 2025/Q3), suggesting strong unit economics even while revenue is pressured.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technicals are currently bearish (MACD negative and worsening) and price is below a key pivot, increasing odds of further downside before any sustainable bounce.
- Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up 437.15% QoQ) → institutional flow is a headwind.
- Elevated implied volatility into earnings indicates high uncertainty; for an impatient buyer, this increases the chance of an immediate adverse move.
- Analysts are largely cautious (multiple Holds/Neutrals and an Underperform) with several price targets below the current ~$41 price.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.016B, down -45.44% YoY → strong top-line contraction continues post-COVID peak.
Net income: -$200M (down -1638.46% YoY) and EPS: -0.51 (down -1800% YoY) → profitability remains negative and deteriorated versus last year.
Gross margin: 86.22%, up +2.78% YoY → margins are strong, but the key issue is demand/revenue scale and operating leverage.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: ratings skew cautious (Hold/Neutral/Equal Weight) with at least one Underperform; overall tone suggests limited confidence in near-term growth visibility.
Price target changes: mixed, but the most notable moves include TD Cowen raising PT to $40 (Hold) and UBS cutting to $34 (Neutral); Barclays initiated at $25 (Equal Weight) and BofA raised to $24 (Underperform) — many targets cluster below the current ~$41.
Wall Street “pros” view: acknowledges cost cutting progress and potential longer-term biotech tailwinds.
Wall Street “cons” view: low visibility on meaningful revenue growth and a more binary pipeline/data-driven path; near-term trading still tied heavily to COVID/seasonal uptake sentiment.

19 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MRNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRNA is 29.36 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 63 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

14 Hold

4 Sell

Hold

Current: 40.870

Low

Averages

29.36

High

Current: 40.870

Low

Averages

29.36

High

TD Cowen

Tyler Van Buren

Hold

upgrade

$25 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

TD Cowen

Tyler Van Buren

Price Target

$25 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

upgrade

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren raised the firm's price target on Moderna to $40 from $25 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q4 results.

Barclays

Eliana Merle

Equal Weight

initiated

$25

2026-01-27

Reason

Barclays

Eliana Merle

Price Target

$25

2026-01-27

initiated

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays analyst Eliana Merle assumed coverage of Moderna with an Equal Weight rating and $25 price target. Barclays initiated coverage of 12 biotech stocks and assumed coverage of 11 with a positive view of the industry. The analyst likes the setup for the group in 2026. Many biotech stocks remain undervalued, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects continued mergers and acquisitions, "strong" underlying fundamentals, and less of a focus on drug pricing to act as "significant tailwinds."

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MRNA Should I Buy

MRNA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Moderna Inc (MRNA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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