Algoma Steel Group Provides Q4 2025 Guidance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ASTL?
Algoma Steel Group provided guidance for its quarter ended December 31, 2025. Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be in the range of 375,000-380,000 tons and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of (C$95M)-(C$105M). Rajat Marwah, CEO of Algoma, commented, "Our fourth-quarter results were in line with expectations, reflecting the continued impact of steel tariffs and the previously announced wind-down of our blast furnace operations, which are expected to conclude in the coming days. We are encouraged by the ongoing ramp-up of the first unit of our Electric Arc Furnace project, which is now operating 6 days per week, and we remain on schedule with the second unit. As we move toward completing our transition to EAF steelmaking during the current quarter, we continue to optimize our existing assets and advance discussions with potential partners to expand our finishing capabilities. This strategy is deliberately aligned with Canada's national interest-strengthening domestic steelmaking capacity, supporting critical infrastructure and defence supply chains, and reinforcing Canada's long-term industrial competitiveness."
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Analyst Views on ASTL
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTL is 5.67 USD with a low forecast of 4.32 USD and a high forecast of 8.28 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 4.320
Low
4.32
Averages
5.67
High
8.28
Current: 4.320
Low
4.32
Averages
5.67
High
8.28
About ASTL
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a Canada-based integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. The Company delivers responsive, customer-driven product solutions for applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. It is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the producer of discrete plate products in Canada. The Company offers a wide range of steel plate products, which include AR225, Heat Treated Plate, AlgoLaser, AlgoGrip, and The Heavies. Its sheet products include Hot Rolled Sheet - DSPC, AR200, and Cold Rolled Sheet. The Company has a raw steel production capacity of an estimated over 2.8 million liquid tons per year. Its Direct Strip Production Complex is a continuous casting and rolling mill, producing high-quality hot-rolled sheet steel directly from liquid steel. The Company also generates by-products from its operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Funding Allocation Details: Of the committed C$345 million, approximately C$275 million is earmarked for the development of the beam mill, while the remaining funds will support Algoma Steel's other products, indicating a strategic focus on product diversification.
- Sales Revenue Sharing Terms: The agreement stipulates that Algoma Steel will make annual payments to Hanwha Ocean equal to 3% of the net sales from the beam mill for 10 years post-operation, which will directly impact the company's cash flow and profitability.
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- Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: The company expects an Adjusted EBITDA in the range of negative CAD 95 million to negative CAD 105 million, indicating significant financial pressure during its transition phase.
- EAF Project Progress: The first unit of Algoma's Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) project is now operating six days a week, demonstrating positive advancements in the company's shift towards more sustainable steel production.
- Strategic Alignment: Algoma's transformation aligns with Canada's national interests by enhancing domestic steelmaking capacity and supporting critical infrastructure, showcasing the company's proactive approach to future market demands.
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- Investment Agreement Signed: Algoma Steel's memorandum of understanding with Hanwha Ocean secures up to C$345 million (US$250 million) for a new structural steel beam mill in Ontario, reflecting strong confidence in future production capacity expansion.
- Funding Allocation Details: Of the committed C$345 million, approximately C$275 million is earmarked for the development of the beam mill, while the remaining funds will support Algoma Steel's other products, indicating a strategic focus on product diversification.
- Sales Revenue Sharing Terms: The agreement stipulates that Algoma Steel will make annual payments to Hanwha Ocean equal to 3% of the net sales from the beam mill for 10 years post-operation, which will directly impact the company's cash flow and profitability.
- Project Dependency: The effectiveness of the MOU is contingent upon Hanwha winning an order to build up to 12 submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy, emphasizing the close ties to government projects and commitment to local investment.
See More
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- Price Increase: Algoma Steel Group's stock has risen 7.8% over the past four weeks, reflecting growing investor interest and enhancing its market appeal.
- Long-Term Momentum: The stock gained 4.7% over the past 12 weeks, indicating not only strong short-term performance but also sustained upward potential, making it suitable for long-term momentum investors.
- Momentum Score: With a Momentum Score of B, Algoma Steel is positioned as an attractive entry point for investors, suggesting a high probability of success and drawing further market attention.
- Reasonable Valuation: Despite its fast-paced momentum, Algoma Steel trades at a Price-to-Sales ratio of just 0.31, meaning investors pay only 31 cents for each dollar of sales, indicating significant room for growth.
See More
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- Coverage Initiation: RBC Capital Markets has initiated coverage on the semiconductor sector, assigning a ‘Sector Perform’ rating to most legacy chipmakers like Intel and AMD, citing a lack of near-term catalysts that could impact their stock performance.
- Bullish Forecasts: The brokerage rates Nvidia and Micron as ‘Outperform’, expecting Nvidia to benefit from gradually slowing hyperscaler capital expenditures, while Micron may gain strong profits due to a memory chip shortage.
- Stock Price Targets: RBC has set optimistic price targets for Arm, Astera Labs, and Marvell at $140, $225, and $105 respectively, anticipating these companies will benefit from data center growth and collaborations with Amazon.
- Dim Outlook for Legacy Chipmakers: While RBC expresses caution regarding the prospects of legacy chipmakers like Intel and AMD due to a lack of catalysts, it remains optimistic about the growth potential of emerging companies, reflecting market preference for innovative technologies.
See More
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- EPS Revision Grade Analysis: As the earnings season approaches, an analysis reveals that several mid to low cap material stocks have received an 'F' EPS revision grade, indicating significant downward pressure on future earnings expectations, which may lead to decreased investor confidence.
- List of Affected Companies: Companies such as American Battery Technology Company (ABAT), Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), and Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) have all received an 'F' grade, highlighting serious challenges in their earnings momentum.
- Market Impact Assessment: The poor EPS revision grades of these companies could adversely affect their stock performance, prompting investors to carefully assess associated risks, especially during the earnings season when market sensitivity to earnings is heightened.
- Industry Outlook: With the earnings season underway, the overall performance of the materials sector may be dragged down by these low-rated companies, leading investors to seek out better-performing firms within the industry for potential investment opportunities.
See More
Algoma Steel Projects Q4 2025 Shipments of 375K to 380K Tons
- Shipment Guidance: Algoma Steel anticipates total steel shipments for Q4 2025 to be between 375,000 and 380,000 tons, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market due to steel tariffs.
- Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: The company expects an Adjusted EBITDA in the range of negative CAD 95 million to negative CAD 105 million, indicating significant financial pressure during its transition phase.
- EAF Project Progress: The first unit of Algoma's Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) project is now operating six days a week, demonstrating positive advancements in the company's shift towards more sustainable steel production.
- Strategic Alignment: Algoma's transformation aligns with Canada's national interests by enhancing domestic steelmaking capacity and supporting critical infrastructure, showcasing the company's proactive approach to future market demands.
See More
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- Rating Initiation: Freedom Capital Markets has initiated coverage on Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (NYSE:BWMX) with a Buy rating and a price target of $20, reflecting analysts' confidence in the company's future growth potential.
- Market Performance: Betterware de México shares closed at $14.21 on Wednesday, indicating significant upside potential compared to the analyst's target price, which suggests a positive market outlook for its future performance.
- Industry Outlook: With increasing consumer demand for home products, Betterware's market positioning provides it with strong growth opportunities in a competitive industry, and the positive rating may attract more investor interest.
- Investor Confidence: Jefferies initiated a Hold rating on Algoma Steel Group (TSX:ASTL) with a price target of C$6, and despite a 2.68% decline in the company's stock price, the analyst's rating reflects recognition of its stability.
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