Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: no proprietary buy signals, weak recent fundamentals, and the chart lacks a clear breakout.
If you must trade it today, it’s more of a tactical support-bounce attempt near ~4.42 than a high-conviction buy; upside looks capped into ~4.71–4.90 resistance.
Options are pricing very high volatility and today’s flow leans more defensive (puts), suggesting sentiment is mixed rather than confidently bullish.
Technical Analysis
Pre-market ~4.46 is just above the pivot/support zone (Pivot 4.418; S1 4.122), so the stock is sitting near an area where bounces can happen—but it’s not confirming a strong uptrend.
MACD histogram is negative (-0.00886) but contracting: bearish momentum is fading, yet still not a confirmed bullish reversal.
RSI(6) ~57: neutral-to-slightly constructive, not an oversold “easy buy” setup.
Moving averages are converging: typically indicates consolidation/indecision rather than a strong trend.
Levels to watch: support 4.42 then 4.12; resistance 4.71 (R1) then 4.90 (R2).
Open interest put/call ratio 0.58: positioning is more call-heavy overall (mildly bullish/less hedged).
Volume put/call ratio 1.13 today: today’s trading flow is slightly put-dominant (more cautious/hedging tone).
IV is extremely elevated (30D IV ~113%, IV percentile ~90.8): market expects big moves; option prices are rich.
Volume is elevated vs average (today vs 30D avg ~2.71x): heightened attention/speculation, but direction is not cleanly bullish.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
can act as a volatility catalyst if results confirm a turnaround.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No fresh news catalysts in the past week to drive a sustained upside move.
Very high implied volatility signals elevated risk and “expensive” options; also often accompanies uncertain direction.
Canadian steel market dynamics/tariff challenges highlighted by Jefferies are a structural headwind.
No notable supportive activity from hedge funds/insiders recently (both neutral), and no congress trading data to indicate influential buying.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $523.9M, down -12.73% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: -$485.1M (still deeply negative); the reported YoY change indicates results deteriorated versus last year.
EPS: -4.46 (still heavily negative; YoY change also implies worsening).
Gross margin: -3.38% and down -41.01% YoY (profitability under pressure).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating trend: Jefferies initiated coverage (2026-01-02) with a Hold rating and C$6 price target.
Wall Street pro view: transition in steelmaking could lift volumes and mix toward higher value-add products over time.
Wall Street con view: near-term market conditions are challenging (tariffs/Canadian dynamics), limiting confidence in a clean uptrend right now.
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTL is 5.67 USD with a low forecast of 4.32 USD and a high forecast of 8.28 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTL is 5.67 USD with a low forecast of 4.32 USD and a high forecast of 8.28 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 4.320
Low
4.32
Averages
5.67
High
8.28
Current: 4.320
Low
4.32
Averages
5.67
High
8.28
Jefferies
Hold
initiated
$6
AI Analysis
2026-01-02
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$6
AI Analysis
2026-01-02
initiated
Hold
Reason
Jefferies initiated coverage of Algoma Steel with a Hold rating and C$6 price target. The company is transitioning its steelmaking, which should increase its volumes from higher value-add products and improve through-cycle margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies cites the "challenging" Canadian steel market dynamics as a result of tariffs for the Hold rating.
Stifel
Buy
downgrade
$13
2025-09-30
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$13
2025-09-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Algoma Steel to C$10.75 from C$13 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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