Upstart Holdings Faces Market Challenges Despite Growth Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 16 2024
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Should l Buy UPST?
Source: Coinmarketcap
Upstart Holdings Inc. has seen its stock price decline by 6.09%, hitting a 20-day low, as broader market conditions weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
Despite Upstart's promising growth potential, including an impressive 80% revenue increase year-over-year for the first three quarters of 2025 and a significant expansion of its customer base to over 100 banks and credit unions, the stock is facing pressure. Analysts project a per-share profit of $2.38 in 2026, but concerns over short-term economic headwinds have led to cautious market sentiment, contributing to the stock's decline.
The company's innovative AI-driven credit scoring algorithm, which enhances loan approval rates, positions it well for future growth. However, the current market environment, characterized by a 1.41% drop in the Nasdaq-100 and a 0.78% drop in the S&P 500, has resulted in sector rotation, impacting Upstart's stock performance.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPST is 56.73 USD with a low forecast of 20.00 USD and a high forecast of 80.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 34.620
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 34.620
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Stock Decline: Upstart's stock has fallen over 50% from its 52-week high, reflecting legitimate concerns about its business as highlighted in recent earnings reports, which may impact investor confidence.
- Future Potential: Despite current challenges, analysts believe Upstart could rise by over 50% by 2026, indicating a continued optimistic outlook on its long-term growth prospects, potentially attracting new investors.
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See More
Upstart Holdings Shows Promising Growth Potential Ahead
- Loan Approval Innovation: Upstart's use of an AI algorithm analyzing over 2,500 variables increases loan approval rates by 43% without additional defaults, significantly enhancing its competitiveness in the credit market.
- Customer Base Expansion: Over 100 banks and credit unions are now regular customers of Upstart, indicating growing recognition and influence of its platform within the financial industry.
- Strong Revenue Growth: For the first three quarters of 2025, Upstart's revenue surged nearly 80% year-over-year, successfully turning a profit and demonstrating the sustainability of its business model and strong market demand.
- Cautious Market Reaction: Despite analysts projecting a per-share profit of $2.38 in 2026, the current stock price trades below 20 times earnings, reflecting market concerns over short-term economic headwinds, necessitating patience from investors for the realization of profit potential.
See More
Upstart's New Credit Scoring Algorithm Shows Potential
- Credit Scoring Innovation: Upstart's use of an AI algorithm that considers over 2,500 variables increases loan approval rates by 43% without additional defaults, showcasing its competitive edge in the credit market.
- Customer Base Expansion: More than 100 banks and credit unions are now regular customers of Upstart, indicating a growing market recognition and demand for its innovative lending platform.
- Financial Recovery: In the first three quarters of 2025, Upstart's revenue surged nearly 80% year-over-year, successfully turning profitable, with strong growth expected to continue into 2026, potentially driving stock price recovery.
- Market Caution: Despite analysts projecting earnings of $2.38 per share and the stock trading at less than 20 times earnings, recent economic warnings have led to lower-than-expected loan originations, resulting in cautious market sentiment that has prevented stock price rebound.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Fintech Stocks Amidst Market Challenges
- Market Challenges: Over the past year, fintech stocks have faced significant declines due to macroeconomic factors such as inflation and high interest rates, with Upstart and Affirm dropping approximately 90% and 60%, respectively, creating pressure for investors amid short-term volatility.
- Upstart's Business Model: Upstart operates an AI-powered online lending marketplace that has originated over $50.4 billion in loans for more than 3 million customers, showcasing its innovative approach to analyzing non-traditional data for loan approvals, which enhances its market reach.
- Affirm's Market Positioning: Affirm focuses on providing buy now, pay later services to younger, lower-income consumers, currently serving 24.1 million active consumers and 419,000 active merchants, with its low-cost structure attracting a significant number of merchants, highlighting its competitive advantage in the market.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts project that Upstart and Affirm will achieve substantial growth in the coming years, with Upstart's revenue and adjusted EBITDA expected to grow at CAGRs of 20% and 35%, respectively, while Affirm's revenue and adjusted EBITDA are projected to grow at CAGRs of 25% and 125%, indicating strong rebound potential for both companies as market conditions improve.
See More
Upstart Could Potentially Rise Over 50% by 2026
- Stock Price Decline: Upstart's stock has fallen over 50% from its 52-week high, reflecting legitimate concerns about its business as highlighted in recent earnings reports, which may impact investor confidence.
- Future Outlook: Despite current challenges, analysts believe Upstart could potentially achieve over 50% growth by 2026, indicating that there remains confidence in its long-term business model.
- Market Reaction: As of the morning of January 29, 2026, Upstart's stock price was $5.49, showing a cautious attitude from investors regarding its future performance, which could affect short-term capital inflows.
- Video Analysis: The video published on January 30, 2026, provides an in-depth analysis of Upstart's future growth potential, aiming to help investors understand the reasons behind the current stock price volatility and its possible rebound in the future.
See More
Upstart Stock Could Rise Over 50% by 2026
- Stock Decline: Upstart's stock has fallen over 50% from its 52-week high, reflecting legitimate concerns about its business as highlighted in recent earnings reports, which may impact investor confidence.
- Future Potential: Despite current challenges, analysts believe Upstart could rise by over 50% by 2026, indicating a continued optimistic outlook on its long-term growth prospects, potentially attracting new investors.
- Investment Recommendations: Upstart is included in the analyst team's list of 10 best stocks to buy right now, showcasing its appeal in the current market environment, especially given Stock Advisor's total average return of 942%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 196%.
- Analyst Holdings: Matt Frankel, CFP, holds positions in Upstart, indicating his confidence in the company, while The Motley Fool also recommends the stock, further enhancing its perceived investment value.
See More
Upstart Holdings Shows Promising Growth Potential Ahead
- Loan Approval Innovation: Upstart's use of an AI algorithm analyzing over 2,500 variables increases loan approval rates by 43% without additional defaults, significantly enhancing its competitiveness in the credit market.
- Customer Base Expansion: Over 100 banks and credit unions are now regular customers of Upstart, indicating growing recognition and influence of its platform within the financial industry.
- Strong Revenue Growth: For the first three quarters of 2025, Upstart's revenue surged nearly 80% year-over-year, successfully turning a profit and demonstrating the sustainability of its business model and strong market demand.
- Cautious Market Reaction: Despite analysts projecting a per-share profit of $2.38 in 2026, the current stock price trades below 20 times earnings, reflecting market concerns over short-term economic headwinds, necessitating patience from investors for the realization of profit potential.
See More
Upstart's New Credit Scoring Algorithm Shows Potential
- Credit Scoring Innovation: Upstart's use of an AI algorithm that considers over 2,500 variables increases loan approval rates by 43% without additional defaults, showcasing its competitive edge in the credit market.
- Customer Base Expansion: More than 100 banks and credit unions are now regular customers of Upstart, indicating a growing market recognition and demand for its innovative lending platform.
- Financial Recovery: In the first three quarters of 2025, Upstart's revenue surged nearly 80% year-over-year, successfully turning profitable, with strong growth expected to continue into 2026, potentially driving stock price recovery.
- Market Caution: Despite analysts projecting earnings of $2.38 per share and the stock trading at less than 20 times earnings, recent economic warnings have led to lower-than-expected loan originations, resulting in cautious market sentiment that has prevented stock price rebound.
See More
