Should I Buy UPST? UPST 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

38.240

1 Day change

10.46%

52 Week Range

96.430

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now. UPST is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages + worsening MACD) and just broke below the first support area (~40.29) after a -5.49% regular-session drop. Even though it’s deeply oversold (RSI_6 ~17.6) and could bounce, there’s no Intellectia buy signal today and the near-term pattern stats skew negative (next week expectation -5.58%). For an impatient buyer, the odds favor more chop/down before a cleaner entry—so I would not buy at current levels.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.841 and expanding negatively → downside momentum is strengthening. Overbought/oversold: RSI_6 = 17.57 → extremely oversold; this raises the chance of a short, tactical rebound, but it does not by itself signal a durable bottom. Key levels: Price ~39.35 is below S1 (40.292), which turns that area into overhead resistance. Next support is S2 ~37.852; pivot/mean reversion area is ~44.242; resistance levels above include ~48.192 and ~50.632. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bullish skew (more calls than puts) with Put/Call OI 0.52 and Put/Call volume 0.39, suggesting traders are positioned more for upside than downside. Activity/conviction: Today’s option volume is light vs its own recent averages (today vs 30D avg volume ~41.73%), which weakens the strength of the sentiment read. Volatility: IV (30D) ~78.69 vs HV ~76.06; IV percentile ~40.8 and IV rank ~23.95 → elevated absolute vol but not extreme relative to its history. This can amplify price swings around catalysts (notably earnings).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Macro tailwind potential: UPST is levered to easing rates and stabilizing consumer credit (also echoed in Truist’s initiation).
can act as a reset catalyst if guidance/credit performance surprises positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

with next support ~37.
- Profitability/earnings quality concerns: latest quarter shows steep YoY declines in net income/EPS despite revenue growth.
can keep buyers sidelined and volatility elevated.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $277.1M, +65.35% YoY (strong top-line rebound).
Gross margin: 82.03%, +7.16% YoY (improving unit economics).
Net income: $31.8M, -570.63% YoY and EPS: $0.29, -462.50% YoY (profitability is highly volatile/declining YoY despite better revenue and margin). Overall: growth is improving, but earnings stability/quality remains a key issue the market is discounting.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: After the Q3 print (early Nov 2025), multiple firms cut price targets (B. Riley, Citi, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Piper), signaling tempered expectations even when ratings stayed positive. Current mix (from provided items):

Bullish: Truist initiated Buy PT $59 (2026-01-06); several Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings remain despite lowered targets.
Bearish/neutral: Goldman maintains Sell with PT $40; Morgan Stanley is Equal Weight PT $45. Wall Street pros: AI underwriting differentiation + leverage to easing rates and improved consumer credit. Wall Street cons: highly credit-cycle sensitive with limited valuation downside protection, and needs consistently “clean” quarters to rebuild confidence. Ownership/flow checks: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral; no recent congress trading data available.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPST is 56.73 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 80 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

4 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 34.620

Low

Averages

56.73

High

Current: 34.620

Low

Averages

56.73

High

Truist

Arvind Ramnani

Buy

initiated

$59

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Truist

Arvind Ramnani

Price Target

$59

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

initiated

Buy

Reason

Truist analyst Arvind Ramnani initiated coverage of Upstart with a Buy rating and $59 price target. From the company's inception, Upstart's core offering is anchored around GenAI, including its underwriting model, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While its model offers significant improvements to traditional credit models, it is still highly exposed to the credit cycle, and offers a levered way to play the U.S. easing rates and stable/improving consumer credit, Truist says.

Mizuho

Joseph Catanzaro

Outperform

initiated

$51

2025-12-17

Reason

Mizuho

Joseph Catanzaro

Price Target

$51

2025-12-17

initiated

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Joseph Catanzaro initiated coverage of Upstream Bio with an Outperform rating and $51 price target. The company's lead program verekitug is well positioned for a positive Phase II readout in asthma in Q1, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm projects $2.7B in risk-adjusted 2035 worldwide sales for verekitug and expects the positive Phase II data to drive share outperformance.

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UPST Should I Buy

UPST Should I Buy

Should You Buy Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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