Turning Point Brands Inc rises amid sector rotation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 05 2024
0mins
Should l Buy TPB?
Source: 4
Turning Point Brands Inc saw a price increase of 6.76% as it crossed above the 5-day SMA, reflecting a positive shift in investor sentiment.
This movement occurs amid a broader market context where the Nasdaq-100 is up 1.05% and the S&P 500 is up 0.70%. However, the tobacco sector is facing challenges, as indicated by a recent decline in cigarette and tobacco stocks, which collectively fell by approximately 2.6%. This suggests a sector rotation as investors reassess their positions in traditional consumer goods, impacting Turning Point Brands despite the overall market strength.
The implications of this price movement indicate that while Turning Point Brands is experiencing a short-term gain, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing regulatory pressures and changing consumer preferences in the tobacco industry.
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Analyst Views on TPB
Wall Street analysts forecast TPB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TPB is 116.67 USD with a low forecast of 110.00 USD and a high forecast of 120.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 125.250
Low
110.00
Averages
116.67
High
120.00
Current: 125.250
Low
110.00
Averages
116.67
High
120.00
About TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a manufacturer, marketer and distributor of branded consumer products. It sells a range of products to adult consumers, consisting of staple products under the brands Zig-Zag and Stoker’s. Its segments include Zig-Zag Products (Zig-Zag) and Stoker’s Products (Stoker’s). Zig-Zag principally markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, and related products; finished cigars and make-your-own cigar wraps, and other accessories. It introduced Zig-Zag ‘Rillo-sized wraps, which are similar in size to cigarillos, a type of machine-made cigars. Stoker’s manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco (MST) and contract for and market FRE, its modern oral product and contract for and market loose-leaf chewing tobacco products. Its products are available in approximately 200,000 in the United States retail locations which, with the addition of retail stores in Canada, brings its total North American retail presence to an estimated 220,000 points of distribution.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Warning Signs for Momentum Investors in Consumer Staples
- Overbought Warning: As of January 29, 2026, two stocks in the consumer staples sector, Turning Point Brands Inc (NYSE:TPB) and TreeHouse Foods Inc (NYSE:THS), are showing overbought signals with an RSI above 70, indicating potential short-term price correction risks.
- Momentum Indicator Analysis: The RSI serves as a momentum indicator by comparing the strength of a stock on up days versus down days, providing traders with insights into short-term performance, and an overbought condition may prompt a reassessment of holding strategies.
- Market Reaction Expectations: The emergence of overbought signals may lead investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding the future performance of TPB and THS, potentially impacting their short-term stock price movements and increasing market volatility.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: In light of the overbought warnings, investors may need to reevaluate their momentum trading strategies to avoid losses during potential corrections, especially in the current market environment.
See More
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Accelerates Shift to Smoke-Free Products with 14.8% Growth in Oral Nicotine Sales
- Smoke-Free Transition: Altria Group is accelerating its shift towards smoke-free products in Q3 2025, particularly in oral nicotine and heated tobacco, demonstrating ongoing market adaptability and strategic realignment.
- Oral Nicotine Growth: The on! brand saw a 14.8% increase in shipment volumes to 133.6 million cans over the first nine months of 2025, maintaining a stable retail share of 8.7%, which lays a solid foundation for future growth in a competitive market.
- New Product Launch: Altria introduced the premium on! PLUS in select U.S. markets, aimed at attracting both existing smokeless users and adult consumers migrating from competing brands, thereby enriching its oral nicotine portfolio.
- Regulatory Progress: Altria filed a combined application with the FDA for the Ploom device and Marlboro heated tobacco sticks, marking a pivotal advancement in its smoke-free strategy and laying the groundwork for future market introduction in the U.S.
See More
Mid-to-Low Cap Consumer Staples Stocks Earn A+ EPS Revision Ratings
- Analyst Rating Upgrades: As earnings season begins, low-to-mid cap consumer staples stocks like The Andersons (ANDE) and Beyond Meat (BYND) have received an A+ EPS revision rating from analysts, indicating growing confidence in their profitability outlook.
- Improved Earnings Expectations: Companies such as Freshpet (FRPT) and John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) have shown strong performance in recent earnings estimate upgrades, suggesting an improvement in their fundamentals.
- Increased Market Attention: Firms like Oddity Tech (ODD) and Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) are attracting investor interest due to their strong earnings momentum, with positive analyst revisions likely to drive stock price increases.
- Industry Trend Analysis: Companies such as Turning Point Brands (TPB) and Village Farms International (VFF) are performing well in the current market environment, demonstrating resilience in the consumer staples sector amid structural challenges.
See More
Turning Point Brands Executive Glazek Sells $3.31 Million in Shares
- Insider Sale: Turning Point Brands' Executive Chairman David Glazek sold 30,000 shares on December 19 for $3.31 million, indicating a liquidity-driven decision rather than a negative outlook on the company.
- Ownership Impact: The sale represented 19.10% of Glazek's direct holdings, reducing his stake but leaving him with 127,083 shares, which maintains his significant exposure to the company's future performance.
- Strong Performance: The company reported a 31.2% year-over-year increase in net sales to $119 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA rising 17.2% to $31.3 million, highlighting robust market demand and profitability.
- Positive Guidance: Management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $115 million to $120 million, reflecting confidence in demand trends, particularly in its Modern Oral portfolio, which has grown over 600% year-over-year, indicating continued growth potential.
See More
Turning Point Brands' Chairman Sells $3.31 Million in Shares
- Insider Sale: Turning Point Brands' Executive Chairman David Edward Glazek sold 30,000 shares on December 19 for $3.31 million, representing 19.10% of his direct holdings, reducing his position to 127,083 shares, indicating a liquidity management strategy rather than a negative outlook.
- Strong Performance: The company reported a 31.2% year-over-year increase in net sales to $119 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA rising 17.2% to $31.3 million, prompting management to raise full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $115 million and $120 million, reflecting confidence in demand trends.
- Modern Oral Growth: Turning Point's Modern Oral product line grew over 600% year-over-year, now accounting for nearly a third of total sales, showcasing the company's strong performance in emerging product categories and reinforcing its market position.
- Ongoing Ownership: Despite the sale, Glazek retains significant direct ownership and option exposure, indicating continued confidence in the company's future growth, and the transaction should not be interpreted as a bearish signal regarding the company's fundamentals.
See More
Cigarette & Tobacco Stocks Decline, Led by Turning Point Brands Down 3.9%
- Market Underperformance: Cigarette and tobacco stocks collectively fell by approximately 2.6%, with Turning Point Brands down 3.9% and Altria Group down 3%, reflecting negative market sentiment towards the tobacco industry, which may impact investor confidence.
- Industry Trends: This decline mirrors the performance of the oil and gas exploration and production sector, indicating a broader market concern regarding traditional consumer goods, potentially leading investors to reassess the long-term outlook for the tobacco sector.
- Investor Reaction: The overall market's bearish sentiment may prompt investors to shift towards other sectors, exacerbating selling pressure on tobacco stocks and affecting their short-term price performance.
- Future Outlook: With changing consumer preferences and increasing regulatory pressures, the tobacco industry faces challenges, necessitating strategic adjustments from Turning Point Brands and Altria Group to navigate the evolving market landscape.
See More
Warning Signs for Momentum Investors in Consumer Staples
- Overbought Warning: As of January 29, 2026, two stocks in the consumer staples sector, Turning Point Brands Inc (NYSE:TPB) and TreeHouse Foods Inc (NYSE:THS), are showing overbought signals with an RSI above 70, indicating potential short-term price correction risks.
- Momentum Indicator Analysis: The RSI serves as a momentum indicator by comparing the strength of a stock on up days versus down days, providing traders with insights into short-term performance, and an overbought condition may prompt a reassessment of holding strategies.
- Market Reaction Expectations: The emergence of overbought signals may lead investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding the future performance of TPB and THS, potentially impacting their short-term stock price movements and increasing market volatility.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: In light of the overbought warnings, investors may need to reevaluate their momentum trading strategies to avoid losses during potential corrections, especially in the current market environment.
See More
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Accelerates Shift to Smoke-Free Products with 14.8% Growth in Oral Nicotine Sales
- Smoke-Free Transition: Altria Group is accelerating its shift towards smoke-free products in Q3 2025, particularly in oral nicotine and heated tobacco, demonstrating ongoing market adaptability and strategic realignment.
- Oral Nicotine Growth: The on! brand saw a 14.8% increase in shipment volumes to 133.6 million cans over the first nine months of 2025, maintaining a stable retail share of 8.7%, which lays a solid foundation for future growth in a competitive market.
- New Product Launch: Altria introduced the premium on! PLUS in select U.S. markets, aimed at attracting both existing smokeless users and adult consumers migrating from competing brands, thereby enriching its oral nicotine portfolio.
- Regulatory Progress: Altria filed a combined application with the FDA for the Ploom device and Marlboro heated tobacco sticks, marking a pivotal advancement in its smoke-free strategy and laying the groundwork for future market introduction in the U.S.
See More
Mid-to-Low Cap Consumer Staples Stocks Earn A+ EPS Revision Ratings
- Analyst Rating Upgrades: As earnings season begins, low-to-mid cap consumer staples stocks like The Andersons (ANDE) and Beyond Meat (BYND) have received an A+ EPS revision rating from analysts, indicating growing confidence in their profitability outlook.
- Improved Earnings Expectations: Companies such as Freshpet (FRPT) and John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) have shown strong performance in recent earnings estimate upgrades, suggesting an improvement in their fundamentals.
- Increased Market Attention: Firms like Oddity Tech (ODD) and Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) are attracting investor interest due to their strong earnings momentum, with positive analyst revisions likely to drive stock price increases.
- Industry Trend Analysis: Companies such as Turning Point Brands (TPB) and Village Farms International (VFF) are performing well in the current market environment, demonstrating resilience in the consumer staples sector amid structural challenges.
See More
Turning Point Brands Executive Glazek Sells $3.31 Million in Shares
- Insider Sale: Turning Point Brands' Executive Chairman David Glazek sold 30,000 shares on December 19 for $3.31 million, indicating a liquidity-driven decision rather than a negative outlook on the company.
- Ownership Impact: The sale represented 19.10% of Glazek's direct holdings, reducing his stake but leaving him with 127,083 shares, which maintains his significant exposure to the company's future performance.
- Strong Performance: The company reported a 31.2% year-over-year increase in net sales to $119 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA rising 17.2% to $31.3 million, highlighting robust market demand and profitability.
- Positive Guidance: Management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $115 million to $120 million, reflecting confidence in demand trends, particularly in its Modern Oral portfolio, which has grown over 600% year-over-year, indicating continued growth potential.
See More
Turning Point Brands' Chairman Sells $3.31 Million in Shares
- Insider Sale: Turning Point Brands' Executive Chairman David Edward Glazek sold 30,000 shares on December 19 for $3.31 million, representing 19.10% of his direct holdings, reducing his position to 127,083 shares, indicating a liquidity management strategy rather than a negative outlook.
- Strong Performance: The company reported a 31.2% year-over-year increase in net sales to $119 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA rising 17.2% to $31.3 million, prompting management to raise full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $115 million and $120 million, reflecting confidence in demand trends.
- Modern Oral Growth: Turning Point's Modern Oral product line grew over 600% year-over-year, now accounting for nearly a third of total sales, showcasing the company's strong performance in emerging product categories and reinforcing its market position.
- Ongoing Ownership: Despite the sale, Glazek retains significant direct ownership and option exposure, indicating continued confidence in the company's future growth, and the transaction should not be interpreted as a bearish signal regarding the company's fundamentals.
See More
Cigarette & Tobacco Stocks Decline, Led by Turning Point Brands Down 3.9%
- Market Underperformance: Cigarette and tobacco stocks collectively fell by approximately 2.6%, with Turning Point Brands down 3.9% and Altria Group down 3%, reflecting negative market sentiment towards the tobacco industry, which may impact investor confidence.
- Industry Trends: This decline mirrors the performance of the oil and gas exploration and production sector, indicating a broader market concern regarding traditional consumer goods, potentially leading investors to reassess the long-term outlook for the tobacco sector.
- Investor Reaction: The overall market's bearish sentiment may prompt investors to shift towards other sectors, exacerbating selling pressure on tobacco stocks and affecting their short-term price performance.
- Future Outlook: With changing consumer preferences and increasing regulatory pressures, the tobacco industry faces challenges, necessitating strategic adjustments from Turning Point Brands and Altria Group to navigate the evolving market landscape.
See More
