TPB Should I Buy
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Buy TPB now. The technical trend is firmly bullish (stacked moving averages and positive MACD), options positioning is aggressively call-skewed (strong bullish sentiment), and the latest quarter (2025/Q3) showed broad-based acceleration in revenue, margins, EPS, and net income. While the stock is already above the latest cited Street price target ($110), the setup still favors near-term upside with defined levels around the 119–124 zone and a positive 1M pattern-based drift.
Trend/structure: Bullish. The moving averages are stacked bullishly (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating a sustained uptrend across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.437) but contracting, which suggests bullish momentum is cooling slightly—more consistent with consolidation than reversal. RSI: RSI_6 at 62.4 is neutral-to-bullish (not overbought), leaving room for continuation. Key levels: Pivot 119.664 is the main “hold-the-trend” area. Resistance levels sit at R1 123.645 and R2 126.104. Support levels: S1 115.684, S2 113.225. Near-term probability model: Similar-pattern projection implies ~+1.55% over 1 week and ~+4.63% over 1 month (with a mild flat bias next day). Overall: a bullish trend with mild short-term digestion—still attractive for an impatient buyer.
Strong recent fundamentals (2025/Q
with accelerating profitability and margin expansion.
Technical uptrend remains intact (bullish MA stack; positive MACD).
Options market is strongly bullish (very low put/call ratios; unusually high volume).
Next earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (pre-market), which can act as a sentiment driver if momentum persists into the print.
Analyst target mentioned ($
is below the current price (~$121), implying the stock may be pricing in more upside than that analyst’s base case.
MACD histogram is still positive but contracting, suggesting near-term upside may come with pauses/consolidation.
No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh catalysts reported).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth was strong and improving across key lines.
Recent Street change: On 2025-11-05, Alliance Global Partners (Aaron Grey) reiterated Buy and raised the price target to $110 from $103, citing another strong quarter (noting continued growth drivers such as pouches). Wall Street pros: Consistent operating momentum, strong earnings quality (margin and EPS expansion), and continued category tailwinds referenced by the analyst. Wall Street cons: The stock now trades above the cited $110 target, which can cap near-term enthusiasm from that coverage unless additional analysts raise targets or new catalysts emerge.
