Tractor Supply Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates, Shares Drop
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSCO?
Source: seekingalpha
Tractor Supply Co's shares fell 5.60% as the stock hit a 5-day low following disappointing Q4 earnings results.
The company reported Q4 earnings of $0.43 per share, missing analyst expectations by $0.03, and revenue of $3.9 billion, which was below the anticipated $3.99 billion. This performance reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising costs and weak market demand, leading to a cautious outlook for 2026 with projected sales growth of only 4% to 6%.
The disappointing earnings report may impact investor confidence and contribute to stock price volatility, as the company faces pressure from increased tariffs and promotional activities, highlighting the need for effective cost management strategies.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy TSCO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on TSCO
Wall Street analysts forecast TSCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSCO is 59.82 USD with a low forecast of 6.92 USD and a high forecast of 70.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 54.480
Low
6.92
Averages
59.82
High
70.00
Current: 54.480
Low
6.92
Averages
59.82
High
70.00
About TSCO
Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers and ranchers. It operates retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Its stores are located in towns outlying various metropolitan markets and in rural communities. It also offers an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com. The Company's selection of merchandise consists of various product categories, including livestock, equine and agriculture; companion animal; seasonal and recreation; truck, tool, and hardware, and clothing, gift, and decor. Its brands consist of 4health, American Farmworks, Bit & Bridle, Blue Mountain, C.E. Schmidt, Country Lane, Countyline, Country Tuff, Dumor, Farm Table, Groundwork, Huskee, and JobSmart.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Dramatic Drop in Fortune 500 Companies' DEI Participation
- Participation Rate Plummets: Research from the Human Rights Campaign reveals a staggering 65% drop in Fortune 500 companies publicly disclosing their diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices, falling from 377 in 2025 to just 131 in 2026, highlighting the pressures and challenges businesses face in the current political climate.
- Widespread Impact: Among the 534 companies that participated, 100 achieved a perfect score, representing nearly 6 million U.S. employees, indicating that despite the overall decline, some firms continue to excel in DEI, reflecting varying market perceptions of social responsibility.
- Political Shift: The rise of the anti-DEI movement, particularly with backing from the White House, has prompted many companies to reassess their DEI policies, with major firms like Walmart and Ford, which previously supported DEI, now withdrawing from related assessments, signaling a significant strategic shift.
- Uncertain Future: As more companies exit the Human Rights Campaign's Corporate Equality Index, the future implementation and evaluation of DEI initiatives face greater uncertainty, potentially impacting corporate social image and employee work environments.
See More
65% Drop in Fortune 500 Companies' Participation in Equity Index
- Significant Participation Decline: The Human Rights Campaign's Corporate Equality Index reveals a drastic 65% drop in Fortune 500 companies' participation, plummeting from 377 in 2025 to just 131 in 2026, indicating a troubling decline in corporate transparency regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices.
- Widespread Impact: Among the 534 companies that participated, 100 achieved a perfect score, representing nearly 6 million U.S. employees; however, the significant reduction in participation raises concerns about the potential erosion of workplace rights and support for these employees, adversely affecting the overall work environment.
- Political Influence: The rise of the anti-DEI movement, particularly with backing from the White House, has prompted many companies to reassess their DEI policies, leading to exits from the index by major firms like Walmart, Ford, and Lowe's, highlighting the impact of the political landscape on corporate social responsibility.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: HRC President Kelley Robinson emphasized that the current climate poses challenges for LGBTQ+ workers and consumers, suggesting that future corporate commitments and practices regarding DEI may face greater scrutiny, potentially affecting brand reputation and market competitiveness.
See More
Analysis of Store Openings and Closures in U.S. Retail Sector
- Increase in Store Openings: Coresight Research projects that U.S. retailers will open approximately 5,500 new stores in 2026, representing a 4.4% year-over-year increase, indicating that value retailers are effectively attracting consumer spending and reflecting sustained demand for low-cost goods.
- Decrease in Store Closures: It is expected that about 7,900 stores will close in 2026, a 4.5% decline from the previous year, marking the lowest number of closures in the past three years, which suggests signs of recovery in the retail sector post-pandemic.
- Impact of Bankruptcies: Last year, 32 retailers filed for bankruptcy, leading to significant store closures; however, affluent consumers continued to support retail growth, highlighting the ongoing K-shaped recovery in the economy.
- Tightening Real Estate Market: With a slowdown in bankruptcies, retail real estate demand is expected to tighten, particularly in major retail markets, as retailers compete for limited commercial space, potentially leading to rising rents in the coming years.
See More
US Retail Store Closures Decline as Industry Stabilizes
- Decline in Store Closures: It is projected that U.S. retailers will close approximately 7,900 stores in 2026, representing a 4.5% year-over-year decrease, marking the lowest closure rate in three years as the retail sector moves past a wave of bankruptcies.
- Increase in New Openings: According to Coresight Research, U.S. retailers are expected to open about 5,500 new stores in 2026, a 4.4% increase year-over-year, indicating the continued appeal of value-focused retailers in attracting consumer spending.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: As demand for retail space rises and supply diminishes, developers may find renewed opportunities to construct new strip malls, potentially revitalizing the retail landscape and driving future growth.
- Economic Factors at Play: Coresight's global research head anticipates that while high inflation and a sluggish housing market continue to impact retail, these economic pressures are expected to ease over the coming year, leading to improved real estate plans for retailers.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, indicating a shift in market sentiment that could influence investor decisions and market trends.
- AMZN Stock Outlook: Analysts' opinions on Amazon (AMZN) stock reveal a divergence in expectations for its future performance, prompting investors to pay attention to the latest ratings and price targets.
- Impact of Rating Changes: Upgrades and downgrades from analysts can lead to stock price volatility, necessitating that investors closely monitor these changes to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
- Market Dynamics Observation: Changes in the overall market environment and economic data may also impact analysts' rating decisions, requiring investors to remain vigilant to address potential market risks.
See More
Tractor Supply Company Reports Quarterly Earnings Miss
- Earnings and Revenue Decline: Tractor Supply Company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of 43 cents, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 47 cents, with quarterly sales of $3.898 billion falling short of the $4 billion expectation, indicating a shift in consumer spending trends.
- Management Commentary: CEO Hal Lawton noted that while essential categories remained resilient, discretionary demand has moderated, reflecting changes in the market environment that may impact future sales strategies.
- Adjusted Future Outlook: The company expects fiscal 2026 GAAP earnings to range between $2.13 and $2.23 per share, lower than the $2.32 analyst estimate, with projected net sales growth of 4% to 6% and comparable store sales growth of 1% to 3%, indicating a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Following the earnings announcement, several analysts adjusted their price targets for Tractor Supply, with Telsey lowering from $70 to $63, Mizuho from $65 to $58, and Piper Sandler from $67 to $59, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance.
See More
Dramatic Drop in Fortune 500 Companies' DEI Participation
- Participation Rate Plummets: Research from the Human Rights Campaign reveals a staggering 65% drop in Fortune 500 companies publicly disclosing their diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices, falling from 377 in 2025 to just 131 in 2026, highlighting the pressures and challenges businesses face in the current political climate.
- Widespread Impact: Among the 534 companies that participated, 100 achieved a perfect score, representing nearly 6 million U.S. employees, indicating that despite the overall decline, some firms continue to excel in DEI, reflecting varying market perceptions of social responsibility.
- Political Shift: The rise of the anti-DEI movement, particularly with backing from the White House, has prompted many companies to reassess their DEI policies, with major firms like Walmart and Ford, which previously supported DEI, now withdrawing from related assessments, signaling a significant strategic shift.
- Uncertain Future: As more companies exit the Human Rights Campaign's Corporate Equality Index, the future implementation and evaluation of DEI initiatives face greater uncertainty, potentially impacting corporate social image and employee work environments.
See More
65% Drop in Fortune 500 Companies' Participation in Equity Index
- Significant Participation Decline: The Human Rights Campaign's Corporate Equality Index reveals a drastic 65% drop in Fortune 500 companies' participation, plummeting from 377 in 2025 to just 131 in 2026, indicating a troubling decline in corporate transparency regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices.
- Widespread Impact: Among the 534 companies that participated, 100 achieved a perfect score, representing nearly 6 million U.S. employees; however, the significant reduction in participation raises concerns about the potential erosion of workplace rights and support for these employees, adversely affecting the overall work environment.
- Political Influence: The rise of the anti-DEI movement, particularly with backing from the White House, has prompted many companies to reassess their DEI policies, leading to exits from the index by major firms like Walmart, Ford, and Lowe's, highlighting the impact of the political landscape on corporate social responsibility.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: HRC President Kelley Robinson emphasized that the current climate poses challenges for LGBTQ+ workers and consumers, suggesting that future corporate commitments and practices regarding DEI may face greater scrutiny, potentially affecting brand reputation and market competitiveness.
See More
Analysis of Store Openings and Closures in U.S. Retail Sector
- Increase in Store Openings: Coresight Research projects that U.S. retailers will open approximately 5,500 new stores in 2026, representing a 4.4% year-over-year increase, indicating that value retailers are effectively attracting consumer spending and reflecting sustained demand for low-cost goods.
- Decrease in Store Closures: It is expected that about 7,900 stores will close in 2026, a 4.5% decline from the previous year, marking the lowest number of closures in the past three years, which suggests signs of recovery in the retail sector post-pandemic.
- Impact of Bankruptcies: Last year, 32 retailers filed for bankruptcy, leading to significant store closures; however, affluent consumers continued to support retail growth, highlighting the ongoing K-shaped recovery in the economy.
- Tightening Real Estate Market: With a slowdown in bankruptcies, retail real estate demand is expected to tighten, particularly in major retail markets, as retailers compete for limited commercial space, potentially leading to rising rents in the coming years.
See More
US Retail Store Closures Decline as Industry Stabilizes
- Decline in Store Closures: It is projected that U.S. retailers will close approximately 7,900 stores in 2026, representing a 4.5% year-over-year decrease, marking the lowest closure rate in three years as the retail sector moves past a wave of bankruptcies.
- Increase in New Openings: According to Coresight Research, U.S. retailers are expected to open about 5,500 new stores in 2026, a 4.4% increase year-over-year, indicating the continued appeal of value-focused retailers in attracting consumer spending.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: As demand for retail space rises and supply diminishes, developers may find renewed opportunities to construct new strip malls, potentially revitalizing the retail landscape and driving future growth.
- Economic Factors at Play: Coresight's global research head anticipates that while high inflation and a sluggish housing market continue to impact retail, these economic pressures are expected to ease over the coming year, leading to improved real estate plans for retailers.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, indicating a shift in market sentiment that could influence investor decisions and market trends.
- AMZN Stock Outlook: Analysts' opinions on Amazon (AMZN) stock reveal a divergence in expectations for its future performance, prompting investors to pay attention to the latest ratings and price targets.
- Impact of Rating Changes: Upgrades and downgrades from analysts can lead to stock price volatility, necessitating that investors closely monitor these changes to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
- Market Dynamics Observation: Changes in the overall market environment and economic data may also impact analysts' rating decisions, requiring investors to remain vigilant to address potential market risks.
See More
Tractor Supply Company Reports Quarterly Earnings Miss
- Earnings and Revenue Decline: Tractor Supply Company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of 43 cents, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 47 cents, with quarterly sales of $3.898 billion falling short of the $4 billion expectation, indicating a shift in consumer spending trends.
- Management Commentary: CEO Hal Lawton noted that while essential categories remained resilient, discretionary demand has moderated, reflecting changes in the market environment that may impact future sales strategies.
- Adjusted Future Outlook: The company expects fiscal 2026 GAAP earnings to range between $2.13 and $2.23 per share, lower than the $2.32 analyst estimate, with projected net sales growth of 4% to 6% and comparable store sales growth of 1% to 3%, indicating a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Following the earnings announcement, several analysts adjusted their price targets for Tractor Supply, with Telsey lowering from $70 to $63, Mizuho from $65 to $58, and Piper Sandler from $67 to $59, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance.
See More
