TSCO Should I Buy
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TSCO is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is sitting right on key support (50.7) with short-term oversold/near-oversold signals that could produce a bounce, but the dominant driver is a fresh earnings miss plus softer 2026 outlook and multiple price-target cuts/downgrades—conditions that often keep pressure on the stock near-term. Best stance: HOLD/AVOID new buys until price reclaims the pivot (53.1) with improving momentum; otherwise downside risk toward ~49 remains meaningful.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Price is below the pivot (53.117) and hovering near S1 support (50.687), suggesting a weak-to-neutral structure with the market testing a support zone. RSI_6 at ~32.4 is near oversold, which can support a short-term reflex bounce, but it is not a strong reversal confirmation by itself. MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.058) but positively contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than strengthening. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation after weakness, not a confirmed uptrend. Key levels: support 50.69 then 49.19; resistance 53.12 then 55.55. Pattern-based odds provided also lean slightly negative next day/week, with a more constructive 1-month bias (+3.92%), which is not ideal for an investor who wants immediate traction.
Hedge funds are reported as net buyers with a very large quarter-over-quarter increase in buying activity, which can help support the stock around this level. The stock is also near a defined support zone (~50.7), and RSI near-oversold conditions can trigger a short-term technical bounce. A subset of Wall Street remains constructive longer term (e.g., Buy/Overweight ratings still exist) with the view that comps can normalize back to ~3%+ over time and share loss is not evident.
Primary catalyst is negative: Q4 EPS and sales missed expectations and 2026 guidance came in below Street views, with commentary pointing to discretionary softness and pressured customer wallets. Multiple firms cut price targets and several are Neutral/Hold, reinforcing a ‘no near-term catalysts’ narrative. JPMorgan specifically flagged near-term trends likely fading as storm-related benefits fade. Option volume skew (put-heavy) also suggests near-term caution. No supportive signal from Intellectia modules today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax trigger).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to $3.898B (+3.31% YoY), but profitability softened: net income fell to $227.4M (-3.81% YoY) and EPS fell to $0.43 (-2.27% YoY). Gross margin declined to 31.86% (down ~0.59 YoY). This is a ‘growth-with-margin-pressure’ quarter, consistent with a consumer/discretionary slowdown and not the kind of acceleration that typically sparks immediate upside re-rating after earnings.
Recent analyst trend is clearly cautious: a cluster of price-target cuts and multiple Holds/Neutrals, including a downgrade (Truist to Hold) and a downgrade at Gordon Haskett to Hold with a $50 target. Even bullish-leaning firms (e.g., Piper Overweight, Citi Buy) reduced targets and acknowledged discretionary softness and below-expectation 2026 guidance. Wall Street pros: strong brand/category positioning, longer-term path back to 3%+ comps, and indications it’s not losing share. Cons: near-term demand softness, storm benefit fading, margin pressure, and a lack of clear positive catalysts over the next 3–6 months. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available; insiders reported as neutral with no notable recent trend.
