J.P. Morgan Downgrades Venture Global Amid EBITDA Guidance Cuts
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 27 2026
0mins
Should l Buy VG?
Source: seekingalpha
Venture Global's stock fell 5.00% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting negative market sentiment.
J.P. Morgan downgraded Venture Global from Overweight to Neutral with an $11 price target, citing a negative revision to FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance. The analyst noted significant earnings volatility due to the company's high sensitivity to short-term pricing, which has led to three downward revisions to the 2025 guidance. Additionally, ongoing arbitration uncertainties continue to pressure the stock price, despite a long-term bullish outlook on LNG spreads.
This downgrade highlights the challenges Venture Global faces in a volatile market, particularly with the anticipated moderation of LNG prices and the impact of arbitration uncertainties on investor confidence.
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Analyst Views on VG
Wall Street analysts forecast VG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VG is 11.89 USD with a low forecast of 8.00 USD and a high forecast of 18.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 9.320
Low
8.00
Averages
11.89
High
18.00
Current: 9.320
Low
8.00
Averages
11.89
High
18.00
About VG
Venture Global, Inc. is a provider of the United States liquefied natural gas (LNG) sourced from North American natural gas basins. The Company's business includes assets across the LNG supply chain, including LNG production, natural gas transport, shipping and regasification. The Company sells LNG and is engaged in the operation, construction, and development of natural gas liquefaction and export facilities in North America (LNG projects). Each LNG project includes a liquefaction facility and export terminal and one or more associated pipelines that interconnect with several interstate and intrastate pipelines for delivery of natural gas into the associated liquefaction facility and export terminal. The Company has multiple segments, including the Company's five LNG projects: the Calcasieu Project, the Plaquemines Project, the CP2 Project, the CP3 Project and the Delta Project, and its direct sales and shipping (DS&S) business and pipeline activities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Contracts and Operational Optimization: Analysts noted that Venture Global's contracts and optimized operations position it well to support the growing global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), despite facing macro risks and arbitration concerns that are already priced in by the market.
- Innovation and Market Positioning: The company's innovations in LNG development and construction have established it as a fast-growing critical energy supplier, enabling LNG delivery in shorter time frames than industry averages, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Future Outlook: While the current wave of U.S. and Qatari LNG supply raises concerns about the macro backdrop, Raymond James analysts believe these risks are already reflected in the market, and Venture Global's growing contract portfolio and robust global demand are expected to remain resilient.
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- Earnings Guidance Downgrade: JPMorgan downgraded Venture Global's rating from Overweight to Neutral on January 27, raising the price target to $11, citing a negative revision in the company's 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance, indicating high sensitivity to short-term pricing.
- Market Dynamics Impact: Despite underperformance of natural gas stocks due to AI bubble concerns during the earnings season, RBC Capital remains optimistic about the natural gas growth narrative, anticipating it to be a significant theme throughout the reporting period.
- Project Development: Venture Global focuses on the construction and development of liquefied natural gas production, with projects including Calcasieu, Plaquemines, CP2, CP3, and Delta, actively advancing despite facing short-term price uncertainties.
See More
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- Earnings Volatility: The analyst highlighted significant earnings volatility for Venture Global due to its high sensitivity to short-term pricing, evidenced by three downward revisions to the 2025 guidance, indicating uncertainty in market performance.
- Market Outlook: With substantial LNG capacity set to come online in the coming years, the analyst expects LNG prices to moderate, negatively impacting Venture Global's market exposure and exacerbating earnings instability.
- Arbitration Uncertainty: Ongoing arbitration uncertainties continue to pose pressure on Venture Global's stock price, despite a bullish outlook on long-term LNG spreads, indicating a complex investment landscape.
See More
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- Export Halt: The winter storm caused U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil and LNG exports to drop to zero on Sunday, with recovery only on Monday, highlighting the severe impact of extreme weather on the energy supply chain.
- Production Losses: Analysts forecast that approximately 2 million barrels per day of oil production went offline over the weekend, representing about 15% of total U.S. output, with the Permian Basin alone seeing 1.5 million barrels per day offline, expected to recover by the end of the month.
- LPG Export Impact: The storm led to liquefied petroleum gas exports, including propane and butane, falling to around a third of seasonal norms, indicating significant market tension regarding energy supplies.
- Natural Gas Decline: The winter storm resulted in a loss of up to 11% of U.S. natural gas production, with January output expected to decline by 3.3 billion cubic feet per day compared to earlier forecasts, affecting overall market supply-demand balance.
See More
