VG Should I Buy
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VG is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. Price is pressing into near-term resistance (9.90) with momentum already stretched (RSI69.5) and no Intellectia “strong-buy” signals to prioritize. Meanwhile, Wall Street has been cutting targets and JPM just downgraded on repeated 2025 EBITDA guidance revisions—so the near-term risk/reward looks more like a choppy, event-driven trade than a clean upside entry.
Trend/Setup: Price at 9.72 is above the pivot (9.117) and approaching first resistance (R1=9.90), suggesting a short-term push higher has already occurred. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.141) but “positively contracting,” implying bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6)=69.54 is near overbought for a short lookback, which often precedes consolidation/pullbacks. Moving Averages: Converging MAs suggest range/transition conditions rather than a strong directional trend. Levels: Immediate resistance 9.90 then 10.384; supports at 9.117 then 8.334. With price close to resistance and momentum cooling, the technical profile is more ‘late-in-move’ than ‘fresh breakout’.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Macro tailwind: recent sharp move up in natural gas prices (weather-driven) can improve near-term sentiment for gas/LNG-linked names.
Legal/arbitration: UBS notes the company prevailed in an arbitration ruling with Repsol (reduces an overhang).
Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 (pre-market) with EPS est. 0.37—could re-rate the stock if guidance stabilizes.
If price cleanly reclaims ~9.90 and holds, technical traders may target ~10.38 next.
Guidance credibility/earnings volatility: JPM downgraded to Neutral after another negative revision to 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance (third downward revision), highlighting sensitivity to short-term pricing.
LNG supply/price uncertainty: Street commentary points to near-term supply additions increasing uncertainty for LNG pricing.
Analyst target cuts have been frequent, reflecting a deteriorating forward pricing/arb outlook and litigation/arbitration overhang concerns.
Technically near resistance with fading MACD momentum and elevated short-term RSI—higher odds of a stall/pullback than an immediate clean breakout.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue surged to $3.329B (+259.5% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply: Net income $429M (-223.6% YoY) and EPS $0.16 (-214.3% YoY), with gross margin down to 51.76% (-15.18% YoY). Growth in revenue is strong, but the margin/earnings trend is the problem—supporting the market’s focus on guidance stability rather than top-line expansion alone.
Recent trend: Predominantly downward price target revisions across multiple banks, plus a key downgrade.
