Humana's Shares Drop Amid Medicare Payment Proposal
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 27 2026
0mins
Should l Buy HUM?
Source: Benzinga
Humana Inc's stock fell sharply, hitting a 52-week low, as the Trump administration proposed a nearly flat reimbursement rate for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, causing significant declines in shares of major health insurers.
The proposal for a mere 0.09% net average payment increase fell drastically short of analysts' expectations of 4% to 6%, leading to a nearly 13% drop in Humana's shares during after-hours trading. This has raised concerns about the company's profitability and future investment capabilities, as the minimal increase in payments could severely impact their operational efficiency and earnings outlook.
As a result, analysts are warning that if the proposed payment rates are finalized without adjustments, Humana could face a potential 15-20% hit to earnings. Despite the current decline, some analysts suggest that the increased value score indicates a potential entry point for contrarian investors.
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Analyst Views on HUM
Wall Street analysts forecast HUM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HUM is 290.39 USD with a low forecast of 231.00 USD and a high forecast of 344.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 193.550
Low
231.00
Averages
290.39
High
344.00
Current: 193.550
Low
231.00
Averages
290.39
High
344.00
About HUM
Humana Inc. provides Humana insurance services and CenterWell health care services. The Company's segments include Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment consists of Medicare benefits, marketed to individuals or directly via group Medicare accounts, as well as its contract with CMS to administer the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI-NET) prescription drug plan program and contracts with various states to provide Medicaid, dual eligible demonstration, and Long-Term Support Services benefits. This segment also includes products consisting of employer group commercial fully-insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits marketed to individuals and employer groups. The CenterWell segment includes its pharmacy, primary care, and home solutions operations. The segment also includes its strategic partnerships with WCAS to develop and operate senior-focused, payor-agnostic, primary care centers, as well as its minority ownership interest in hospice operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Medicare Costs: The standard Medicare Part B premium will increase from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, while the annual deductible will rise by $26 to $283, negatively impacting retirees' disposable income, especially as Social Security cost-of-living adjustments may not keep pace with these increases.
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- Medicare Advantage Chaos: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, reducing benefits for additional services; CEOs warn that the proposed 0.9% payment increase for 2027 could have a profoundly negative impact on seniors' benefits and access to care.
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- Drug Cost Reduction: Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, retirees will see significant reductions in prescription drug costs starting in 2026, with price negotiations for the first ten drugs taking effect on January 1, 2026, alleviating financial burdens and improving overall financial health for retirees.
- Rising Medicare Costs: The standard Medicare Part B premium will increase from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, while the annual deductible will rise by $26 to $283, negatively impacting retirees' disposable income, especially as Social Security cost-of-living adjustments may not keep pace with these increases.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, meaning more retirees will encounter higher healthcare costs, further straining their financial resources.
- Medicare Advantage Market Turmoil: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, leading to reduced services and limited networks, with CEOs warning that future payment increases may have a “profoundly negative impact” on seniors' benefits and access to care.
See More
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- Lower Drug Costs: Starting in 2026, the CMS can negotiate prices for the first time under the Inflation Reduction Act, potentially lowering costs for retirees on 10 key prescription drugs, particularly those for diabetes and heart conditions, thereby alleviating some financial burdens on retirees.
- Rising Premiums and Deductibles: The standard Medicare Part B premium has increased from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, with the annual deductible rising by $26 to $283, leading 54% of Social Security recipients to feel that the 2.8% COLA is insufficient to offset these increases, which may heighten financial stress for retirees.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, further straining their healthcare budgets and reducing disposable income.
- Medicare Advantage Chaos: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, reducing benefits for additional services; CEOs warn that the proposed 0.9% payment increase for 2027 could have a profoundly negative impact on seniors' benefits and access to care.
See More
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- Inflation Metrics Analysis: The January Consumer Price Index is projected to rise by 0.29% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, showing improvement but still falling short of the Fed's 2% target, potentially affecting investor rate expectations.
- Market Reaction and Risks: Recent signs of labor market weakness, including an ADP report indicating only 22,000 new private sector jobs, may heighten expectations for further Fed rate cuts, although investors remain optimistic about economic resilience.
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