Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is in a strong downtrend and policy/Medicare Advantage headline risk is rising.
Oversold conditions (RSI ~18.7) can create a short-term bounce, but the trend/macro-news setup suggests bounces are more likely to be sold until the chart reclaims key levels (at least the pivot area ~225).
Near-term event risk is high with earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) with a very weak EPS estimate (Est: -4.01), which can easily break support around ~$192.
Options positioning is not screaming “capitulation bottom” (put/call ratios < 1), so there’s limited evidence that fear is fully washed out.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-8.215) but “negatively contracting,” which suggests selling pressure is slowing, not reversing.
Overbought/oversold: RSI_6 at 18.746 = deeply oversold; short-term relief rallies are possible, but oversold can stay oversold in downtrends.
Key levels: Price $192.1 is sitting on S1 support (191.766). A clean break below this raises downside risk toward S2 (170.828). Upside resistance begins at the pivot (225.657), then R1 (~259.548).
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): 50% chance of -0.91% next day, +0.97% next week, -4.26% next month (tilts bearish over 1 month).
Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios below 1 imply slightly more call interest than puts (not extreme bearish hedging).
Volatility: IV_30d 56.63 with IV percentile 78.49 (options pricing is relatively elevated vs its own history), suggesting the market is pricing meaningful near-term uncertainty.
Activity: Total volume 3,405 with today’s volume ~26% of 30D average; open interest is large (118,659) and today vs OI avg is elevated (110.39), implying positioning is building but not paired with huge same-day volume.
Takeaway: Options do not show a strong “panic put bid” that often accompanies durable bottoms; uncertainty is high into earnings/policy headlines.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
can trigger a short, sharp mean-reversion bounce from the ~$192 support zone.
on Stars diversification/share gains.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
explicitly cites MA policy risk and pressure into
Earnings catalyst risk on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) with an extremely weak EPS estimate (Est: -4.01), increasing the probability of a support break.
Profitability deteriorated sharply: Net income $195M, -59.38% YoY.
EPS: 1.61, -59.45% YoY.
Interpretation: Growth is being overwhelmed by margin/medical cost or reimbursement pressure—consistent with the market’s bearish stance and the policy-risk narrative.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/targets have skewed more cautious with multiple downgrades and target cuts.
Key negative shift: Morgan Stanley (2026-02-02) downgraded to Underweight and slashed PT to $174 (from $262), explicitly citing 2026 bid strategy/policy risk and MA rate pressure.
Wells Fargo (2026-01-07) downgraded to Equal Weight (from Overweight) with PT $290, citing doubts about margin objective achievability without benefit cuts.
Offsetting bullish voices: Jefferies (2025-12-05) upgraded to Buy (PT $313) on Stars diversification and share gains; Bernstein (2026-01-06) remains Outperform (PT $344) expecting a sector turnaround starting 2026.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Potential multi-year recovery narrative for managed care, Stars diversification/share gains could support earnings normalization.
Cons: Near-term execution risk is high, margin recovery path looks uncertain, and MA policy/rate dynamics are a direct earnings headwind—especially for HUM due to higher exposure.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast HUM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HUM is 290.39 USD with a low forecast of 231 USD and a high forecast of 344 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HUM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HUM is 290.39 USD with a low forecast of 231 USD and a high forecast of 344 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 193.550
Low
231
Averages
290.39
High
344
Current: 193.550
Low
231
Averages
290.39
High
344
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight -> Underweight
downgrade
$262 -> $174
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$262 -> $174
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Equal Weight -> Underweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Humana to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $174, down from $262. The firm says the company's 2026 bid strategy and policy risk may slow its margin turnaround. The "disappointing" Medicare Advantage advance rate notice adds 2027 pressure for Humana and a new policy overhang across Medicare Advantage where the company is "disproportionately exposed," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Wells Fargo
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$290
2026-01-07
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$290
2026-01-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo downgraded Humana to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $290 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis, Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HUM