Equifax Launches Credit Abuse Risk Model to Enhance Lending Confidence
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 30 2026
0mins
Should l Buy EFX?
Source: PRnewswire
Equifax Inc. shares fell 5.97% and hit a 52-week low amid mixed market conditions, with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.16% and the S&P 500 up 0.09%.
The decline in Equifax's stock price comes despite the recent launch of its Credit Abuse Risk Model, which aims to help lenders identify fraudulent behaviors and enhance lending confidence. This model is part of a broader strategy to reduce financial losses due to fraud, indicating a proactive approach to improving their service offerings. Analysts have also reaffirmed positive ratings on the stock, suggesting potential long-term growth despite current pressures.
The implications of this launch could be significant for Equifax, as it positions the company to better serve lenders and potentially regain investor confidence. However, the current market sentiment and the stock's performance at a 52-week low may require the company to demonstrate tangible results from its new initiatives to attract buyers.
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Analyst Views on EFX
Wall Street analysts forecast EFX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EFX is 262.42 USD with a low forecast of 234.00 USD and a high forecast of 295.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 191.010
Low
234.00
Averages
262.42
High
295.00
Current: 191.010
Low
234.00
Averages
262.42
High
295.00
About EFX
Equifax Inc. is a global data, analytics, and technology company. The Company is engaged in helping financial institutions, companies, employers, and government agencies make critical decisions. The Company’s Workforce Solutions segment provides services enabling customers to verify income, employment, educational history, criminal justice data, healthcare professional licensure and sanctions of people in the United States. The Company’s U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) segment provides consumer and commercial information solutions to businesses in the United States, including online information, decisioning technology solutions, identity management services, analytical services, e-commerce fraud and charge back protection services, portfolio management services, mortgage information and marketing services. The Company’s International segment provides products and services similar to those available in the USIS segment but with variations by geographic region.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Sales Growth: The company's quarterly sales reached $1.551 billion, exceeding the anticipated $1.527 billion, demonstrating Equifax's sustained competitiveness in the market, which contributed to its stock price increase.
- Future Outlook: Equifax projects FY2026 adjusted EPS between $8.30 and $8.70, slightly below the market estimate of $8.74, while forecasting sales of $6.660 billion to $6.780 billion, indicating stable growth potential.
- Analyst Rating Adjustments: Following the earnings announcement, Needham's Kyle Peterson maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $295 to $265, while Morgan Stanley's Toni Kaplan kept an Overweight rating, reducing the target from $269 to $244, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding Equifax's future performance.
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- Annual Financial Outlook: The company projects adjusted earnings per share of $8.30 to $8.70 for fiscal 2026, with revenue expected between $6.660 billion and $6.780 billion, reflecting a positive outlook for future market conditions.
- Comparison to 2025: In Q1 2025, Equifax recorded adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share and revenue of $1.442 billion, demonstrating ongoing growth in both revenue and profitability.
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- Mortgage Segment Growth: The company reported a 20% increase in U.S. mortgage revenue for Q4, reflecting a rebound in loan demand supported by a resilient labor market and economy, which boosts the need for credit scores and risk assessments.
- Competitive Strategy: Equifax plans to expand its VantageScore mortgage credit score offerings to counter FICO's strategy of selling credit scores directly to lenders, aiming to enhance market share and achieve margin expansion.
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- Future Guidance: The company issued a midpoint revenue guidance for FY2026 at $6.72 billion, projecting a growth of approximately 10.5%, with organic revenue growth around 10%, reflecting Equifax's confidence in future market conditions despite challenges in the mortgage sector.
- Market Assumptions: The FY2026 guidance assumes a low single-digit decline in the U.S. mortgage market and that 100% of mortgage credit scores will be FICO scores, indicating a cautious outlook that may impact future performance.
- Market Reaction: Despite a positive Q4 outlook, Equifax's stock faces long-term headwinds, particularly after senators warned against Medicaid profiteering, highlighting market concerns regarding the company's growth trajectory.
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- Strong Earnings Report: Equifax reported an adjusted EPS of $2.09 for Q4, surpassing market expectations of $2.05, indicating robust profitability that boosts investor confidence.
- Sales Growth: The company's quarterly sales reached $1.551 billion, exceeding the anticipated $1.527 billion, demonstrating Equifax's sustained competitiveness in the market, which contributed to its stock price increase.
- Future Outlook: Equifax projects FY2026 adjusted EPS between $8.30 and $8.70, slightly below the market estimate of $8.74, while forecasting sales of $6.660 billion to $6.780 billion, indicating stable growth potential.
- Analyst Rating Adjustments: Following the earnings announcement, Needham's Kyle Peterson maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $295 to $265, while Morgan Stanley's Toni Kaplan kept an Overweight rating, reducing the target from $269 to $244, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding Equifax's future performance.
See More
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- Positive Market Reaction: Following the acquisition announcement, Silicon Labs' stock surged by 49%, indicating strong investor confidence in the deal and reflecting optimistic expectations for consolidation within the semiconductor industry.
- Strong Earnings Performance: Silicon Labs reported an adjusted EPS of 56 cents for Q4, slightly above the consensus estimate of 55 cents, demonstrating stable financial performance that enhances the attractiveness of the acquisition.
- Industry Consolidation Trend: This acquisition represents a strategic move for Texas Instruments to expand its product line and signifies an acceleration in semiconductor industry consolidation, potentially triggering more similar deals that could reshape the market landscape.
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Equifax (EFX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Equifax Issues Financial Guidance for 2026
- Q1 2026 Expectations: Equifax anticipates adjusted earnings per share between $1.63 and $1.73 for Q1 2026, with revenue projected at $1.597 billion to $1.627 billion, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market.
- Annual Financial Outlook: The company projects adjusted earnings per share of $8.30 to $8.70 for fiscal 2026, with revenue expected between $6.660 billion and $6.780 billion, reflecting a positive outlook for future market conditions.
- Comparison to 2025: In Q1 2025, Equifax recorded adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share and revenue of $1.442 billion, demonstrating ongoing growth in both revenue and profitability.
- Market Reaction: EFX shares rose by 0.02% to $175 in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange, indicating investor optimism regarding the company's future prospects.
See More
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- Upgraded Profit Forecast: Equifax anticipates annual revenue between $6.66 billion and $6.78 billion for 2023, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $6.59 billion, indicating robust performance amid high interest rates.
- Mortgage Segment Growth: The company reported a 20% increase in U.S. mortgage revenue for Q4, reflecting a rebound in loan demand supported by a resilient labor market and economy, which boosts the need for credit scores and risk assessments.
- Competitive Strategy: Equifax plans to expand its VantageScore mortgage credit score offerings to counter FICO's strategy of selling credit scores directly to lenders, aiming to enhance market share and achieve margin expansion.
- Quarterly Performance Exceeds Expectations: The company posted an adjusted earnings per share of $2.09 for Q4, beating analyst expectations of $2.05, with quarterly revenue reaching $1.55 billion, also above the projected $1.53 billion, showcasing strong financial performance.
See More
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- Future Guidance: The company issued a midpoint revenue guidance for FY2026 at $6.72 billion, projecting a growth of approximately 10.5%, with organic revenue growth around 10%, reflecting Equifax's confidence in future market conditions despite challenges in the mortgage sector.
- Market Assumptions: The FY2026 guidance assumes a low single-digit decline in the U.S. mortgage market and that 100% of mortgage credit scores will be FICO scores, indicating a cautious outlook that may impact future performance.
- Market Reaction: Despite a positive Q4 outlook, Equifax's stock faces long-term headwinds, particularly after senators warned against Medicaid profiteering, highlighting market concerns regarding the company's growth trajectory.
See More
