Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: the trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum remains negative (MACD histogram below 0 and worsening).
Even after today’s +4.53% bounce to 182.55, price is still below the key pivot (194.52); upside is likely capped until it reclaims that level.
Pattern-based probabilities you provided skew bearish (next week expected drift ~-6.43%), which is unfavorable for immediate entries.
Net: HOLD (not a buy today). If forced to act immediately, this setup is more consistent with avoiding new longs rather than chasing the post-earnings move.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the broader downtrend remains intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -3.612 and expanding lower → bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~26 suggests near-term oversold/washed-out conditions, which can produce bounces, but does not confirm a trend reversal by itself.
Key levels:
Resistance/Pivot: 194.52 (must reclaim to improve the chart).
Support: 175.36 (S1), then 163.52 (S2).
Resistance above: 213.68 (R1).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment (flow): Very call-heavy volume (put/call volume ratio 0.05) with moderate OI skew (OI put/call 0.82) → traders positioned more bullish/relief-rally than bearish.
Activity: Today’s options volume is ~213% of the 30-day average → elevated event-driven participation (consistent with earnings/news).
Volatility: IV 30d ~40.99 with IV percentile ~94 (rich vs its recent range), while historical vol ~48.18. Near-term premium remains elevated; options market is pricing large moves.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
could support demand for TotalVerify compliance/verification solutions.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical overhang: chart remains in a downtrend; today’s bounce has not repaired the structure (still below pivot ~194.5).
Regulatory/political headline risk: concerns raised by U.S. Democratic Senators regarding government verification pricing could pressure narrative/valuation multiples.
Earnings quality mixed in headlines: GAAP EPS cited as missing expectations in one summary, which can keep investors cautious even if revenue is strong.
Near-term statistical edge you provided points to additional downside risk (higher probability of weakness over the next week).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter season in dataset: 2025/Q3 showed improving fundamentals:
Revenue: $1.5449B, +7.15% YoY
Net income: $160.2M, +13.38% YoY
EPS: 1.29, +14.16% YoY
Gross margin: 45.21%, +3.88% YoY
Earnings update (Q4 2025, per news): revenue $1.55B, +9% YoY; net income ~$175.8M. Overall trend indicates steady growth and margin resilience, but near-term demand sensitivity (e.g., mortgage/origination exposure) remains a swing factor.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street posture is constructive but with some trimming of targets:
UBS (2026-02-03): Buy, PT $270; attributes selloff to GenAI/regulatory worries but sees Medicaid compliance tailwinds.
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-17): Overweight; PT cut to $280 from $290 (still positive on AI theme).
BMO (2025-12-08): Market Perform; PT cut to $234 from $245; flags mortgage/origination weakness and views consensus as too aggressive.
Wall Street pros:
Verification/compliance platforms and AI-driven data services can support durable growth.
Recent revenue growth trend (~7–9% YoY) is supportive.
Wall Street cons:
Mortgage/origination cyclicality can restrain growth.
Regulatory/political scrutiny around verification pricing adds headline and multiple risk.
Influential/congress trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders shown as neutral (no notable recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast EFX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EFX is 262.42 USD with a low forecast of 234 USD and a high forecast of 295 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EFX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EFX is 262.42 USD with a low forecast of 234 USD and a high forecast of 295 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 191.010
Low
234
Averages
262.42
High
295
Current: 191.010
Low
234
Averages
262.42
High
295
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
$235 -> $208
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$235 -> $208
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Equifax to $208 from $235 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Equifax reported mixed q4 results, with revenue outperforming the firm's estimates and consensus mitigated by a shortfall in margins., the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman expects consumer credit conditions to remain stable this year, driving consistent non-mortgage U.S. Information Solutions growth trends, and looks for Workforce Solutions government revenue to accelerate to double-digit growth reflecting benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
UBS
Buy
downgrade
$270 -> $230
2026-02-05
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$270 -> $230
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on Equifax to $230 from $270 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EFX
