CVS Health Stock Drops Amid Medicare Rate Proposal Impact
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 08 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CVS?
Source: SeekingAlpha
CVS Health Corp's stock has dropped significantly, hitting a 20-day low in pre-market trading, reflecting broader market trends in the health insurance sector.
The decline follows the Trump administration's proposal to maintain Medicare rates flat for the upcoming year, which has led to a significant drop in health insurance stocks, including CVS Health, which fell over 10%. This proposal has raised concerns about profitability among insurers, as the average payment increase for Medicare Advantage plans is only 0.09%, far below expectations, impacting their financial outlook.
This situation highlights the challenges CVS Health faces in the current market environment, particularly with the potential for reduced revenue from Medicare plans. Investors will be closely monitoring how the company navigates these challenges and any potential adjustments to its business strategy.
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Analyst Views on CVS
Wall Street analysts forecast CVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVS is 96.71 USD with a low forecast of 91.00 USD and a high forecast of 105.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 76.330
Low
91.00
Averages
96.71
High
105.00
Current: 76.330
Low
91.00
Averages
96.71
High
105.00
About CVS
CVS Health Corporation is a health solutions company. The Company's segments include Health Care Benefits, Health Services, Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness and Corporate/Other. Health Care Benefits segment offers a broad range of traditional, voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans, PDPs and Medicaid health care management services. Health Services segment provides a full range of pharmacy benefit management (PBM) solutions through its CVS Caremark operations and delivers health care services in its medical clinics, virtually, and in the home. Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment dispenses prescriptions in its CVS Pharmacy retail locations and through its infusion operations, provides ancillary pharmacy services including pharmacy patient care programs, diagnostic testing and vaccination administration, and sells a wide assortment of health and wellness products and general merchandise.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
CVS Pharmacies Accept TrumpRx Discount Cards for Prescription Drugs
- Launch of TrumpRx Program: President Trump officially launched the TrumpRx program on Thursday, with CVS's network of approximately 9,000 pharmacies now accepting the discount cards, aimed at reducing prescription drug costs for consumers and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Discounted Drug Range: Initially, discounts are available for 43 drugs from five pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer, which is expected to attract more consumers to utilize CVS's services.
- Convenient Access Methods: Consumers can either search for drug prices on TrumpRx.gov and complete transactions or use coupon cards at participating pharmacies, streamlining the purchasing process and enhancing user experience.
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- Earnings Release Date: CVS Health is set to report its latest earnings pre-market on February 10, and while market focus on its 2026 guidance may impact stock price, the company has consistently exceeded earnings expectations over the past four quarters, indicating resilience in profitability.
- Medicare Payment Impact: Following the latest Medicare Advantage payment news, CVS shares have fallen over 14%, which could negatively affect investor sentiment post-earnings, particularly regarding updates to the 2026 guidance.
- Earnings Expectation Shift: Analysts forecast CVS's non-GAAP earnings for Q4 2025 at $0.99 per share, a decline from $1.19 in Q4 2024; however, expectations for a potential earnings beat remain, which could lead to a stock rebound.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite pressures from Medicare payment rates, CVS's retail pharmacy and pharmacy benefits management units generate a larger share of revenue, maintaining a positive long-term growth outlook, especially when compared to UnitedHealth's valuation, which presents a more attractive investment opportunity.
See More
CVS Health Set to Release Earnings and Guidance
- Earnings Preview: CVS Health is set to release its quarterly results on February 10, with consensus expecting non-GAAP earnings of $0.99 per share, reflecting a decline from $1.19 in Q4 2024; however, optimism remains regarding potential earnings beats.
- Medicare Policy Impact: Investors will closely monitor updates to CVS's 2026 guidance, particularly the implications of the recently proposed Medicare Advantage payment rates, especially after CVS shares fell over 14% due to this news.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Despite significant volatility following the Medicare news, analysts suggest that if CVS delivers
See More
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- Earnings Progress: As of February 6, 23 healthcare companies reported earnings, bringing the sector's overall reporting progress to 38%, indicating stability in industry performance and heightened investor interest.
- Pfizer Earnings Highlight: Pfizer (PFE) posted a strong Q4 with revenue of $17.6 billion, exceeding expectations; however, its shares fell due to projected revenue contraction in 2026, reflecting market concerns about future growth.
- AbbVie Outperformance: AbbVie (ABBV) reported revenue of $16.62 billion and earnings per share of $2.71, surpassing Wall Street forecasts, driven by strong performance from its flagship product Humira, with a projected total sales growth of 9.5% for the year, boosting market confidence.
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CVS Pharmacies Accept TrumpRx Discount Cards for Prescription Drugs
- Launch of TrumpRx Program: President Trump officially launched the TrumpRx program on Thursday, with CVS's network of approximately 9,000 pharmacies now accepting the discount cards, aimed at reducing prescription drug costs for consumers and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Discounted Drug Range: Initially, discounts are available for 43 drugs from five pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer, which is expected to attract more consumers to utilize CVS's services.
- Convenient Access Methods: Consumers can either search for drug prices on TrumpRx.gov and complete transactions or use coupon cards at participating pharmacies, streamlining the purchasing process and enhancing user experience.
- CVS and Novo Nordisk Partnership: CVS also serves as a retail pharmacy partner for Novo Nordisk's NovoCare Pharmacy, further solidifying its position in the prescription drug market and providing patients with more options.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
Key Focus Areas This Week: Jobs, Consumer Prices, Coca-Cola, CVS, Ford, McDonald's, and More
- Market Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.5% and closed above 50,000 for the first time.
- Nasdaq Struggles: In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 1.8%, despite a strong rally on Friday.
See More
CVS Health Earnings Outlook Analysis
- Earnings Release Date: CVS Health is set to report its latest earnings pre-market on February 10, and while market focus on its 2026 guidance may impact stock price, the company has consistently exceeded earnings expectations over the past four quarters, indicating resilience in profitability.
- Medicare Payment Impact: Following the latest Medicare Advantage payment news, CVS shares have fallen over 14%, which could negatively affect investor sentiment post-earnings, particularly regarding updates to the 2026 guidance.
- Earnings Expectation Shift: Analysts forecast CVS's non-GAAP earnings for Q4 2025 at $0.99 per share, a decline from $1.19 in Q4 2024; however, expectations for a potential earnings beat remain, which could lead to a stock rebound.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite pressures from Medicare payment rates, CVS's retail pharmacy and pharmacy benefits management units generate a larger share of revenue, maintaining a positive long-term growth outlook, especially when compared to UnitedHealth's valuation, which presents a more attractive investment opportunity.
See More
CVS Health Set to Release Earnings and Guidance
- Earnings Preview: CVS Health is set to release its quarterly results on February 10, with consensus expecting non-GAAP earnings of $0.99 per share, reflecting a decline from $1.19 in Q4 2024; however, optimism remains regarding potential earnings beats.
- Medicare Policy Impact: Investors will closely monitor updates to CVS's 2026 guidance, particularly the implications of the recently proposed Medicare Advantage payment rates, especially after CVS shares fell over 14% due to this news.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Despite significant volatility following the Medicare news, analysts suggest that if CVS delivers
See More
Healthcare Sector Earnings Overview
- Earnings Progress: As of February 6, 23 healthcare companies reported earnings, bringing the sector's overall reporting progress to 38%, indicating stability in industry performance and heightened investor interest.
- Pfizer Earnings Highlight: Pfizer (PFE) posted a strong Q4 with revenue of $17.6 billion, exceeding expectations; however, its shares fell due to projected revenue contraction in 2026, reflecting market concerns about future growth.
- AbbVie Outperformance: AbbVie (ABBV) reported revenue of $16.62 billion and earnings per share of $2.71, surpassing Wall Street forecasts, driven by strong performance from its flagship product Humira, with a projected total sales growth of 9.5% for the year, boosting market confidence.
- Merck's Dismal Outlook: Merck (MERK) reported a solid Q4 with revenue of $16.4 billion and EPS of $2.04, both beating expectations; however, its 2026 outlook fell short of Wall Street estimates, leading to a decline in share price and reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding future growth.
See More
