Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: near-term headline risk is elevated (CMS Medicare Advantage rate proposal + PBM disclosure proposal) with earnings in 6 days (2026-02-10 pre-market).
Price action is not showing a clean upside trend (MACD still negative; RSI sub-50), so you’re not getting momentum confirmation.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call ratios low), but high IV percentile implies you’re paying up for that optimism.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.481 (below zero) but negatively contracting → selling pressure may be easing, not yet a reversal.
RSI: RSI(6) 45.685 → neutral-to-slightly weak; not oversold.
Moving averages: converging → consolidation/indecision; increases odds of a breakout after a catalyst (earnings).
Levels to watch: Pivot 77.336 (current 76.23 below pivot = weak); Support S1 72.251 then S2 69.11; Resistance R1 82.42 then R2 85.561.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model suggests ~70% probability of gains (+1.7% next day, +2.09% next week, +5.55% next month), but that edge is vulnerable to earnings/regulatory headlines.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.76; Volume PCR 0.27) → positioning/flow leans bullish (more calls than puts).
Activity: Today’s options volume 1,274 with volume vs 30D average at 4.82x → notable uptick in activity.
Volatility: 30D IV 34.1 with IV percentile 72.11 (elevated) → market is pricing larger moves (likely around earnings and policy risk); buying calls outright is relatively expensive.
Skew note: Calls dominate (call OI 220,881 vs put OI 168,422), consistent with cautious optimism despite policy overhang.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-10 pre-market: a clean guide/beat could quickly flip the technical setup given tight/converging moving averages.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Policy risk (near-term): CMS proposed 2027 MA reimbursement math below expectations → threatens margin expansion narrative; downside if final rates don’t improve.
Regulatory headline: U.S. Department of Labor proposal requiring PBMs to disclose compensation to self-insured plans could pressure PBM economics/contracting optics.
Sector sentiment hit: UNH guidance disappointment and public criticism (e.g., Mark Cuban comments) keep managed-care sentiment fragile.
Earnings event risk in under a week increases the chance of a gap move against new buyers.
Profitability: Net income - $3.975B (down -4668.97% YoY) and EPS -3.13 (down -4571.43% YoY) → sharp deterioration versus prior year, a key overhang for confidence.
Gross margin: 13.42%, +1.98% YoY → some operating improvement, but not enough to offset the bottom-line decline in the quarter provided.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: After a very bullish wave of price-target hikes in Dec-2025 (mostly Buy/Overweight; targets lifted into ~$92–$101), late Jan-2026 saw modest target cuts (e.g., BofA to $95 from $100; Argus to $90 from $91) tied to CMS MA rate proposal.
Wall Street pros: diversified model, investor-day guidance/long-term growth outlook, potential MA rate improvement by final rule, and belief estimates are near trough.
Wall Street cons: MA rate pressure could reduce earnings/margins if not offset, plus regulatory scrutiny on PBMs; near-term headline sensitivity remains high.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVS is 96.71 USD with a low forecast of 91 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVS is 96.71 USD with a low forecast of 91 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 76.330
Low
91
Averages
96.71
High
105
Current: 76.330
Low
91
Averages
96.71
High
105
Argus
Buy
downgrade
$91 -> $90
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
Reason
Argus
Price Target
$91 -> $90
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Argus lowered the firm's price target on CVS Health to $90 from $91 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock declined by close to 15% after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services proposed a flat 2027 Medicare Advantage reimbursement rate over 2026, but the firm sees this rate as likely to be revised upward before final implementation in April 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that should the final rate increase come in lower than the prior year's 5.1% increase, CVS's diversification should be able to mitigate the impact compared to pure play health insurers.
BofA
Buy
maintain
$100 -> $95
2026-01-27
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$100 -> $95
2026-01-27
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on CVS Health to $95 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced the proposed policies in the calendar year 2027 Advance Notice are projected to result in a net all-in rate of 2.54%, below the market's general expectation for an increase of 4%-6%. The announcement is a headwind to the Medicare Advantage margin expansion story, says the analyst, who estimates the gross unmitigated headwind to CVS would be more than $1B of Medicare Advantage revenue and margin if the final rates match these advanced rates and CVS makes no offsetting changes to benefits. However, the firm also notes that in the past 14 years, the final rate has come in better than the proposal 64% of the time.
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