Ares Management Provides $1.6 Billion Financing for Evermark Merger
Ares Management Corp's stock fell 3.02% and hit a 20-day low amid broader market gains, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.76% and the S&P 500 up 0.44%.
The decline in Ares Management's stock comes despite the announcement of $1.6 billion in debt financing to support the merger of Suave Brands and Elida Beauty, which will create Evermark. This financing showcases Ares' strong capital capabilities in the consumer sector and reflects a proactive approach to market opportunities. The merger aims to enhance product quality and innovation, positioning Evermark for long-term growth.
This financing not only strengthens Ares Management's position in the consumer goods sector but also highlights its commitment to supporting strategic mergers that can lead to enhanced market competitiveness.
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- Earnings Performance: Ares Management's fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations, leading to an 8.4% drop in shares post-announcement, despite strong fundraising and investment activities supporting higher assets under management.
- Optimistic Fundraising Outlook: Management anticipates robust fundraising in 2026, expecting total fundraising this year to meet or exceed record levels set in 2025, which will support future revenue growth.
- Fee-Related Earnings Growth: Management reaffirmed the outlook for fee-related earnings (FRE) margin expansion, guiding towards the high end of its annual expansion target range, bolstered by synergies from GCP integration and improved operational efficiencies.
- Improving Investment Environment: Ares' investment pipeline has reached record levels, indicating strong future management fee growth, particularly as its $101 billion in assets under management that are not yet fee-bearing will soon become fee-generating.
- Election Impact: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her ruling LDP secured a supermajority in the election, controlling over two-thirds of the Lower House, which allows her to freely pursue an agenda of increased spending and suspension of certain food taxes, likely stimulating economic growth further.
- Market Surge: Following the election results, Japanese stocks reached a record high, with the yen strengthening to 156.88 per dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence and indicating positive market expectations regarding Takaichi's policies.
- U.S. Market Rebound: Major U.S. indexes rebounded post-election, with the S&P 500 rising 1.97% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 2.18%, driven by strong performances from tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle, which bolstered global investor confidence.
- Private Credit Concerns: The private credit market faces renewed uncertainty as AI pressures software companies, raising investor concerns about borrower business models and potentially increasing default risks, which could impact overall financial stability.
- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
- Potential BDx Sale: I Squared Capital is considering options for its Asian data center business BDx, with a potential sale price of up to $2 billion, which could reshape its investment portfolio in the Asian market.
- Four Roses Brand Deal: Kirin Holdings has agreed to sell the Four Roses bourbon brand to E. & J. Gallo Winery for approximately $775 million (around 120 billion yen), enhancing Gallo's position in the premium spirits market.
- Genius Sports Acquisition: Genius Sports has agreed to acquire digital sports and gambling media company Legend for $1.2 billion, with $900 million in cash and $100 million in stock, financed through an $850 million loan, despite a 27% drop in stock price following the announcement.
- Bankruptcy Filing Preparation: Catalyst Brands is preparing to file for bankruptcy for the entity operating Eddie Bauer locations, which may impact the overall operations and brand value of Authentic Brands Group.
- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.

- Private Credit Sector: The emergence of private credit "cockroaches" indicates a shift in the market, particularly affecting the software sector.
- Investment Opportunities: This situation may present new investment opportunities in shares of business development companies that hold the debt of these affected companies.










