Should I Buy ARES? ARES 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ares Management Corp (ARES) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

130.460

1 Day change

7.05%

52 Week Range

195.260

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now (pre-market ~$132): price is in a strong short-term downtrend and sitting below/near key support, while options flow is heavily put-skewed ahead of earnings.
Event risk is immediate: QDEC 2025 earnings are 2026-02-05 pre-market, and current positioning/volatility suggests the market is braced for a big move.
If you’re impatient and want action today: this setup is better for avoiding a new long than initiating one; the technicals and options sentiment are not aligned with a clean “buy now.”

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure — SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -2.982 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is still building.
Oversold: RSI_6 = 7.566 (extremely oversold). This can spark a bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger when trend/momentum are still deteriorating.
Levels:
- Immediate support: S1 ~133.91 (price ~132 is already below this area → weak tape)
- Next support: S2 ~124.90 (a realistic downside magnet if earnings disappoint)
- Overhead pivot resistance: ~148.50 (market would need to reclaim this zone to repair the chart)
Pattern-based odds (given): next day roughly flat-to-slightly negative; next month positive bias (+4.05%) but near-term timing remains poor.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (OI): Put/Call OI 1.22 = moderately bearish positioning.
Sentiment (Volume): Put/Call volume 15.87 with 873 puts vs 55 calls = extremely bearish/defensive flow (often hedging or speculation into earnings).
Volatility: IV 30d ~43.51 vs HV ~37.86 (options pricing in elevated move); IV percentile 82.33 = expensive options / heightened event premium.
Volume spike: today’s option volume ~133% of 30D avg = crowding into the event window, reinforcing “binary” earnings risk.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst targets are trending higher across multiple firms (supportive longer-term narrative for alts).
- BlueCove acquisition completed (2026-02-03): strengthens credit investing capabilities and lifts AUM to ~$397B (strategic growth catalyst).
- Fundamentals (latest provided quarter) show strong YoY growth (supports the longer-term bull case if guidance is solid on 2026-02-05 earnings).
- Deal activity tailwind: multiple analyst notes cite improving realizations/deal backdrop into 2026.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Immediate earnings catalyst (2026-02-05 pre-market): high IV + heavy put volume implies the market is positioned for downside/uncertainty.
- Technical damage: downtrend intact (bearish MAs + weakening MACD) — the chart is not confirming a durable bottom.
- Support risk: trading below 133.91 increases the chance of a move toward **124.90** if the print/guidance disappoints.
- No supportive flow signals: hedge fund/insider trend data provided is neutral, offering no near-term “smart money” confirmation.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $2.026B, +70.35% YoY (strong top-line acceleration)
- Net income: $252.9M, +128.64% YoY (profitability scaling)
- EPS: $1.15, +109.09% YoY (strong earnings momentum)
Overall: the growth trend is strong, but the next catalyst is QDEC 2025 earnings (2026-02-05 pre-market) which will determine whether the market re-rates the stock near-term.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: improving/raising targets into 2026: Oppenheimer $224 (Outperform), Barclays $222 (Overweight), Wolfe $210 (Outperform), BofA $214 (Buy), UBS $201 (Neutral), Morgan Stanley $178 (Equal Weight).
Wall Street pros: constructive macro/setup for alternative asset managers, expectation for better realizations and deal activity, and supportive 2026 backdrop.
Wall Street cons: valuation/expectations may be less forgiving (Neutral/Equal Weight coverage exists), and near-term performance hinges on earnings/guidance execution.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity indicated in the provided dataset.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARES stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARES is 196.55 USD with a low forecast of 175 USD and a high forecast of 222 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 121.870

Low

175

Averages

196.55

High

222

Current: 121.870

Low

175

Averages

196.55

High

222

Goldman Sachs

Buy

downgrade

$189 -> $165

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$189 -> $165

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Ares Management to $165 from $189 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Alternative Managers faced continued share price pressure after Q4 results, with the group down about 15% year-to-date and 10% in the past week, despite software-related risks being manageable and earnings expectations largely unchanged, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Oppenheimer

Outperform

downgrade

$224 -> $215

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$224 -> $215

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Ares Management to $215 from $224 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes the selloff in the shares is belied by the company's strong Q4 print. Oppenheimer believes the broad-based selloff in the Alts sector was driven primarily by investors' increased fears around software exposure in credit funds and was not driven by company-specific concerns.

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ARES Should I Buy

ARES Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ares Management Corp (ARES) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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