AMD's Q1 Guidance Falls Short, Stock Drops 9%
AMD's stock dropped 4.32% to hit a 20-day low, reflecting market disappointment over its Q1 guidance amid a broader tech sell-off.
The company's Q1 revenue forecast of $9.8 billion fell short of market expectations of $9.38 billion, undermining investor confidence despite a strong Q4 earnings report where revenue surpassed estimates at $10.27 billion. Analysts noted that AMD's guidance failed to meet elevated expectations, particularly in the context of ongoing growth in AI spending, which had significantly raised performance expectations. Furthermore, AMD's partnership with OpenAI is expected to drive future growth, with plans to deploy 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs starting in the second half of 2026.
This disappointing guidance has led to a significant drop in AMD's stock price, highlighting the challenges the company faces in meeting investor expectations in a competitive AI market, even as it continues to expand its partnerships and product offerings.
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- China Market Contribution: AMD's Q4 sales of $390 million in GPUs to China significantly boosted results, although management forecasts only $100 million in revenue for Q1, indicating potential volatility in future sales from this dynamic market.
- Data Center Revenue Growth: AMD's data center revenue surged 39% year-over-year to $5.4 billion, driven by record CPU and GPU sales, highlighting strong demand in the AI sector, with eight of the ten largest AI companies now utilizing its GPUs.
- Client and Gaming Segment Performance: Revenue from the client and gaming segments rose 34% and 50% respectively, totaling $3.9 billion, although the company anticipates a meaningful decline in semi-custom revenue in 2026, which could impact future growth potential.
- Overall Financial Performance: AMD's total revenue for Q4 climbed 34% year-over-year to $10.27 billion, with gross margin increasing to 54%, and adjusted earnings per share rising 40% to $1.53, surpassing market expectations and demonstrating robust performance amid high investor expectations.
- Oracle Stock Rise: Oracle shares increased by 2% after DA Davidson upgraded its rating from neutral to buy, with analysts believing that a revamped OpenAI will regain its position as Google's top competitor, enhancing collaboration potential with Oracle.
- STMicroelectronics Partnership Expansion: STMicroelectronics saw a 7% stock increase following a multi-billion-dollar partnership announcement with Amazon Web Services to support infrastructure for cloud and AI data centers, which is expected to drive future revenue growth for the company.
- Kroger CEO Transition: Kroger's shares jumped nearly 5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that former Walmart executive Greg Foran will be appointed as the new CEO, indicating a potential strategic shift that could enhance the company's performance in a competitive retail market.
- Hims & Hers Health Crisis: Hims & Hers stock plummeted 18% after it withdrew its copycat weight-loss pill following legal threats from Novo Nordisk, highlighting the importance of intellectual property in the market and potentially impacting Hims & Hers' future product strategy.
- Nvidia's Stock Movement: Nvidia's stock was experiencing a slight decline early on Monday after a significant rally driven by increased spending from major tech companies.
- Investor Sentiment: Investors are currently reassessing the artificial intelligence market, which is impacting Nvidia's stock performance.
Stock Market Outlook: The Super Bowl Indicator suggests a positive year for the stock market, particularly following the Seattle Seahawks' victory.
Investor Sentiment: Even skeptics of the Super Bowl Indicator can find reasons for optimism as the market approaches a significant January jobs report.
- Dow Jones Surge: On Friday, the Dow Jones index surged over 1,200 points during trading, closing at 50,115.67, marking a historic high that signifies a strong market recovery and may attract more investors.
- Strong Performance of S&P 500 and Nasdaq: The S&P 500 rose by 1.97% to close at 6,932.30, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.18% to 23,031.21, indicating a robust rebound in tech and large-cap stocks, further boosting market confidence.
- Analyst Rating Discrepancies: Despite daily new stock picks from Wall Street analysts, the wide variance in analyst ratings and price targets leaves investors confused about which analyst opinions to trust, potentially impacting the effectiveness of investment decisions.
- Market Sentiment Recovery: The Dow's milestone of surpassing 50,000 points reflects optimistic expectations for economic recovery, which could lead to increased capital inflow into the stock market, thereby driving further overall market gains.
- Earnings Performance: Amazon reported Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.95, slightly below the $1.97 expected by analysts, while its revenue of $213.4 billion exceeded the $211.3 billion forecast, indicating strong revenue performance despite the earnings miss.
- Capital Expenditure Forecast: Amazon's projected capital expenditures for 2026 are set at $200 billion, a significant increase from $132 billion in 2025; although this raised market concerns, CEO Andy Jassy emphasized that most of the spending will address high demand for AWS services.
- AWS Growth Momentum: AWS experienced a 24% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching an annualized revenue run rate of $142 billion, with a backlog of $244 billion, reflecting robust growth in the cloud services market and a 40% increase in backlog year-over-year.
- Advertising Revenue Surge: Amazon's advertising revenue rose 22% year-over-year to $21.3 billion in Q4, with significant contributions from sponsored product ads and Prime Video ads, further solidifying its competitive edge in the e-commerce sector.











