Zacks Industry Outlook Spotlights Dutch Bros, BJ's Restaurants, and Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
Industry Challenges: The restaurant industry is facing a tough macroeconomic environment with high costs, declining traffic, and intense competition, leading to a negative earnings outlook for many companies.
Sales Growth and Digitalization: Despite challenges, restaurant sales have shown strong growth, driven by digital innovation and off-premise sales, including delivery and takeout options, which are becoming increasingly popular.
Stock Performance: The Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, with a decline of 12.7% over the past year, while the sector has seen a rise of 12.9%.
Key Players: Dutch Bros, Red Robin, and BJ's Restaurants are highlighted as companies with potential for growth, with Dutch Bros showing significant sales and earnings increases, while Red Robin and BJ's focus on operational improvements and menu innovations.
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- Company Performance: Dutch Bros shares increased by 8.5% following a strong performance in Q4.
- Revenue Results: The company's revenue exceeded analysts' expectations, contributing to the rise in stock value.

- Dutch Bros Shares Surge: Dutch Bros shares increased by 18.7% in pre-market trading following a strong performance in their Q4 revenue report.
- Revenue Exceeds Expectations: The company's revenue for the fourth quarter surpassed analysts' expectations, contributing to the rise in stock value.
- Dutch Bros Expansion Plans: Dutch Bros aims to double its store count by 2029, currently operating 1,081 locations across 24 states, indicating significant market potential with plans for 7,000 stores, which could enhance long-term investor returns.
- Consistent Sales Growth: Dutch Bros has achieved transaction growth for five consecutive quarters, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending despite macroeconomic fluctuations, with future sales expected to strengthen as the economy improves.
- On Holding Sales Surge: On Holding reported a 35% year-over-year sales growth in Q3 2025, with a remarkable 94% increase in the Asia-Pacific region, highlighting the brand's strong growth potential in international markets, which is crucial for future expansion.
- Global Market Performance: On Holding's new Ginza store in Tokyo set a record for the highest monthly sales globally, while a new store in Bangkok achieved the highest daily opening sales in company history, showcasing its robust performance and expansion capabilities in the global market.
- Dutch Bros Options Volume: Dutch Bros Inc saw options trading volume of 36,024 contracts, equivalent to approximately 3.6 million shares, representing 60.4% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating strong market interest in the stock.
- High Demand Call Options: Notably, the $60 strike call option expiring on March 20, 2026, has seen 3,340 contracts traded today, representing about 334,000 underlying shares, suggesting investor expectations for future price increases.
- Hershey Options Activity: Hershey Company recorded an options trading volume of 14,351 contracts, approximately 1.4 million shares, accounting for 58.6% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, reflecting ongoing market interest in the company.
- Significant Call Option Trading: The $185 strike call option expiring on February 20, 2026, has seen a trading volume of 4,665 contracts today, representing around 466,500 underlying shares, indicating optimistic sentiment among investors regarding Hershey's future performance.
- Earnings Beat: Dutch Bros reported a 29% year-over-year increase in Q4 sales to $443.6 million, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $424 million by 5%, indicating strong market demand and brand appeal.
- Significant Earnings Growth: Unadjusted earnings per share surged from $0.03 to $0.17, nearly doubling the average analyst expectation, reflecting effective strategies in cost control and sales growth.
- Slower Future Growth: Management guided for slower revenue growth and margin compression in 2026 due to the rollout of a new food menu, which, while expected to boost long-term sales, will pressure profitability in the short term.
- Stock Volatility: Despite a 17.7% surge at market open, the stock quickly reversed to a 1.8% decline as investors refocused on guidance targets, highlighting market uncertainty and caution regarding future growth prospects.
- Earnings Beat: Dutch Bros reported a 29% year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter sales to $443.6 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $424 million, indicating strong market demand and brand appeal.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite earnings per share soaring from $0.03 to $0.17, well above the expected $0.09, management's revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 was slightly below market expectations, projecting a growth rate of approximately 22%.
- Cost Pressures Intensify: The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report highlighted an 18% year-over-year rise in coffee prices, validating management's warnings about ingredient cost pressures, with profit margins expected to shrink by 0.6 percentage points next year, impacting overall profitability.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Although the stock experienced short-term volatility, Dutch Bros aims to open at least 2,029 locations by the end of 2029, a significant increase from the current 1,136 shops, and the introduction of a broader menu is expected to drive future growth, despite potential short-term margin compression.







