Waste Connections (WCN) Price Target Reduced by 28.25% to 147.16
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 06 2025
0mins
Should l Buy WCN?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Price Target Revision: The average one-year price target for Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) has been revised down to $147.16 per share, a decrease of 28.25% from the previous estimate of $205.10.
Fund Sentiment: There are currently 1,222 funds reporting positions in Waste Connections, with a slight decrease of 2.08% in the last quarter, while the average portfolio weight dedicated to WCN has increased by 4.35%.
Shareholder Activity: Notable changes in shareholdings include Royal Bank of Canada decreasing its shares by 3.78%, while Mackenzie Financial increased its holdings by 14.96% over the last quarter.
Market Outlook: The put/call ratio for WCN stands at 0.08, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors despite the recent price target adjustments.
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Analyst Views on WCN
Wall Street analysts forecast WCN stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 157.580
Low
173.11
Averages
205.54
High
221.00
Current: 157.580
Low
173.11
Averages
205.54
High
221.00
About WCN
Waste Connections, Inc. is an integrated solid waste services company. It provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation. Its segments include Western, Southern, Eastern, Central, Canada and MidSouth. It serves approximately nine million residential, commercial and industrial customers in secondary markets across 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada. It also provides non-hazardous oilfield waste treatment, recovery and disposal services in several basins across the U.S. and Canada, as well as intermodal services for the movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest. Its residential services include garbage pickup, yard waste, recycling, dumpster rental, bulk pickup, and portable toilets. Its commercial services include business waste collection, commercial recycling, shredding, roll off dumpster rental, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Robust Shareholder Returns: The company returned over $830 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends over the past year, demonstrating its commitment to capital returns while maintaining flexibility for growth.
- Active Acquisition Strategy: In 2025, Waste Connections completed 19 acquisitions totaling $330 million in annualized revenue, with an expected contribution of approximately $125 million in 2026, further solidifying its market position.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Revenue for 2026 is projected between $9.9 billion and $9.95 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected in the range of $3.30 billion to $3.325 billion, indicating strong confidence in future growth despite regulatory challenges at Chiquita Canyon.
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- Net Income Reversal: The company achieved net income of $258.5 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $196 million a year earlier, demonstrating substantial improvements in operational efficiency and cost management.
- EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA rose 8.7% year-over-year to $795.6 million, with an EBITDA margin expansion of 110 basis points to 33.5%, reflecting the company's price-led organic growth in solid waste and ongoing operational improvements.
- 2026 Outlook: Waste Connections anticipates revenue between $9.90 billion and $9.95 billion for 2026, with projected net income ranging from $1.223 billion to $1.238 billion, showcasing confidence in future growth driven by potential acquisitions and macroeconomic activity.
See More
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- Market Reaction: The decline in stock price may be linked to recent industry developments or internal company news, prompting investors to monitor upcoming announcements to assess potential impacts on the company's fundamentals.
- Investor Sentiment: The market's reaction reflects a cautious attitude towards Waste Connections' profitability and growth prospects, which may lead analysts to reassess their future ratings on the stock.
- Trading Volume Changes: The increase in trading volume during after-hours suggests heightened investor attention to the stock's volatility, potentially affecting future market liquidity.
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- Earnings Announcement Date: Waste Connections is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 11 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.27, reflecting a 9.5% year-over-year growth, indicating stable profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $2.37 billion, representing a 16.7% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's strong market demand and business expansion capabilities in the waste management sector.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Waste Connections has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 88% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting and bolstering market confidence.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 8 downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced 3 upward and 3 downward revisions, indicating a divergence in market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
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- Strong Financial Performance: Waste Connections reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.373 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $796 million, reflecting an 8.7% year-over-year increase, showcasing the company's success in price-led organic growth and operational improvements.
- Robust Shareholder Returns: The company returned over $830 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends over the past year, demonstrating its commitment to capital returns while maintaining flexibility for growth.
- Active Acquisition Strategy: In 2025, Waste Connections completed 19 acquisitions totaling $330 million in annualized revenue, with an expected contribution of approximately $125 million in 2026, further solidifying its market position.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Revenue for 2026 is projected between $9.9 billion and $9.95 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected in the range of $3.30 billion to $3.325 billion, indicating strong confidence in future growth despite regulatory challenges at Chiquita Canyon.
See More
Waste Connections Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Exceeding Profit Estimates
- Revenue and Profit Performance: Waste Connections reported fourth-quarter revenue of $2.373 billion, aligning with Wall Street expectations and reflecting a 5% increase from the previous year, while adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 surpassed estimates of $1.27, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Net Income Reversal: The company achieved net income of $258.5 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $196 million a year earlier, demonstrating substantial improvements in operational efficiency and cost management.
- EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA rose 8.7% year-over-year to $795.6 million, with an EBITDA margin expansion of 110 basis points to 33.5%, reflecting the company's price-led organic growth in solid waste and ongoing operational improvements.
- 2026 Outlook: Waste Connections anticipates revenue between $9.90 billion and $9.95 billion for 2026, with projected net income ranging from $1.223 billion to $1.238 billion, showcasing confidence in future growth driven by potential acquisitions and macroeconomic activity.
See More
Waste Connections Shares Drop 3.2% in After-Hours Trading
- Stock Price Movement: Waste Connections shares fell 3.2% in after-hours trading, indicating market concerns about the company's future performance, which could impact investor confidence and lead to short-term capital outflows.
- Market Reaction: The decline in stock price may be linked to recent industry developments or internal company news, prompting investors to monitor upcoming announcements to assess potential impacts on the company's fundamentals.
- Investor Sentiment: The market's reaction reflects a cautious attitude towards Waste Connections' profitability and growth prospects, which may lead analysts to reassess their future ratings on the stock.
- Trading Volume Changes: The increase in trading volume during after-hours suggests heightened investor attention to the stock's volatility, potentially affecting future market liquidity.
See More
Stocks Show Mixed Performance Following Disappointing Retail Sales Data
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 was close to achieving its first record of the month but ultimately did not reach that milestone.
- Investor Sentiment: The near-record performance reflects fluctuating investor confidence in the market's direction.
See More
Waste Connections Q4 Earnings Preview
- Earnings Announcement Date: Waste Connections is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 11 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.27, reflecting a 9.5% year-over-year growth, indicating stable profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $2.37 billion, representing a 16.7% year-over-year increase, which highlights the company's strong market demand and business expansion capabilities in the waste management sector.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Waste Connections has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 88% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting and bolstering market confidence.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 8 downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced 3 upward and 3 downward revisions, indicating a divergence in market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
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- Market Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.5% and closed above 50,000 for the first time.
- Nasdaq Struggles: In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 1.8%, despite a strong rally on Friday.
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