WCN Should I Buy
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WCN is not a good buy right now. The setup is neutral-to-slightly bearish near resistance (around 171–173) with weak near-term statistical edge and heavy hedge-fund selling, while fundamentals show revenue growth but declining earnings. If you must act immediately (impatient entry), this is a HOLD/AVOID rather than an attractive buy at 170.95.
Trend/price context: WCN closed at 170.95 (above the pivot 168.19) and is pressing into first resistance R1 ~171.25 with R2 ~173.15 overhead; nearest supports are S1 ~165.13 and S2 ~163.23. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.198) but positively contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI: RSI(6) ~43 is neutral but slightly weak (not oversold), implying limited immediate mean-reversion support. Moving averages: Converging MAs signals consolidation/range conditions rather than a clean trend. Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern stats imply mild downside bias (-0.89% next day, -2.76% next week, -2.96% next month). Net: technically this looks more like a range-top test than a fresh breakout, making current price a poor immediate entry for an impatient buyer.
Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (AH) with Street EPS est. ~1.30 could reset the narrative if pricing/volumes and margin commentary are strong.
Analyst commentary points to FY26 price-cost spread and margin expansion potential (150–200 bps price-cost; underlying margin expansion 20–40 bps+), plus AI-driven pricing tools early in rollout.
M&A runway: multiple analysts highlight continued acquisition opportunity as a compounding driver.
Flow/positioning risk: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~702.62% QoQ), a notable near-term headwind.
Earnings quality in latest reported quarter: revenue up but net income/EPS down YoY, suggesting margin/expense or mix pressure.
Technical/near-term probability skew: range-bound near resistance with mild negative forward-return expectation from pattern stats.
Potential non-core headwinds discussed by analysts: recycled commodity assumptions and landfill remediation/closure cost uncertainty (e.g., Chiquita-related 2026 cost range cited by CIBC).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to 2.458B (+5.13% YoY), but profitability softened: Net Income 286.3M (-7.07% YoY) and EPS 1.11 (-6.72% YoY). Gross margin was ~29.95% (slightly down ~0.07% YoY). Summary: top-line growth remains steady, but recent earnings/growth trend is decelerating, which makes paying up near resistance less compelling for an immediate entry.
Recent trend: Price targets were mostly trimmed in January (Oppenheimer 206->205, Scotiabank 210->204, Citi 196->183, CIBC 210->208), while ratings largely stayed positive (Outperform/Overweight/Buy). Earlier, several firms initiated/affirmed bullish views (Goldman Buy $202, Bernstein Outperform $200/$205, Morgan Stanley Overweight $220, BofA Buy $194; Citi remains Neutral). Wall Street pros: High-quality compounder, strong M&A playbook, pricing power/price-cost spread and margin expansion potential, and improving free cash flow profile. Wall Street cons: Recycling/commodity and specialty volume sensitivity in parts of the business, and incremental cost uncertainties (remediation/closures), plus some firms see more attractive picks elsewhere in the group (e.g., Citi’s top pick WM). Net: Street remains constructive overall, but the recent wave of target trims aligns with the current lack of a clean technical breakout and supports a HOLD rather than an impatient buy today.
