U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Slows Down
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 27 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ADP?
Source: PRnewswire
- Job Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending January 3, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 7,750 jobs per week, indicating ongoing growth in the labor market, although this figure has declined from previous weeks, reflecting potential risks of economic slowdown.
- Data Adjustment Note: These figures are seasonally adjusted and estimated based on ADP's high-frequency data, suggesting that current numbers may change as new data is incorporated, highlighting the dynamic and uncertain nature of the employment market.
- Release Frequency: The NER Pulse is published every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m., providing estimates of week-over-week employment changes based on a four-week moving average, ensuring timely and accurate data to better reflect real-time employment trends.
- Future Outlook: The next NER Pulse will be released on February 10, 2026, and ongoing monitoring of employment market changes will be crucial for policymakers and business decision-making.
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Analyst Views on ADP
Wall Street analysts forecast ADP stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 209.960
Low
230.00
Averages
276.83
High
332.00
Current: 209.960
Low
230.00
Averages
276.83
High
332.00
About ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions. Its segments include Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). Its Employer Services segment serves clients ranging from single-employee small businesses to large enterprises with tens of thousands of employees around the world, offering a range of technology-based HCM solutions, including its cloud-based platforms, and human resource outsourcing (HRO) (other than PEO) solutions. Its offerings include Payroll Services, Benefits Administration, Talent Management, HR Management, Workforce Management, Compliance Services, Insurance Services and Retirement Services. Its PEO business, called ADP TotalSource, provides clients with guidance, technology, comprehensive employee benefits, risk management, safety, and workers’ compensation program. Its compensation management software supports the compensation planning needs.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Consumer Spending Data Focus: This week's highlight will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, which will provide insights into consumer spending in December and inflation trends, especially following last week's unexpected slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Corporate Earnings in Spotlight: Walmart (WMT) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, marking the first report under new CEO John Furner, making it a key indicator of consumer spending that the market is eagerly anticipating.
- Ongoing AI Impact: As AI tools' potential effects intensify across various sectors, software stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) have seen significant declines, reflecting the market's heightened vigilance regarding AI disruptions, necessitating close monitoring of future industry developments.
See More
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- Stock Price Volatility: Paycom's shares dropped over 7% in after-hours trading as businesses delay or reduce HR and payroll software purchases due to tighter budgets, reflecting market concerns about its future performance.
- Customer Acquisition Challenges: Analysts note that macroeconomic challenges could constrain Paycom's new customer acquisition, particularly as hiring slows or layoffs occur among small and medium-sized businesses, which are crucial to its core client base.
- Intensifying Competition: The human capital management market is becoming increasingly crowded, with Paycom facing pressure from competitors like ADP, Paylocity, and Workday, which could further weaken its market share and profitability.
See More
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- Job Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending January 24, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 6,500 jobs per week, reflecting a gradual recovery in the labor market that could positively impact economic growth.
- Data Source and Adjustments: These figures are based on ADP's finely tuned high-frequency data, seasonally adjusted, with a two-week lag to ensure accurate estimates of real-time employment trends, showcasing ADP's expertise in employment data analysis.
- Publication Frequency and Transparency: The NER Pulse is published every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m., providing 12 weeks of historical data, enhancing market transparency regarding employment changes, and aiding businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions.
- Future Outlook: The next NER Pulse will be released on February 17, 2026, continuing to monitor changes in the job market, with ADP's research providing crucial employment and pay data support for various businesses.
See More
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- Employment Growth Overview: In January 2026, the U.S. private sector added 22,000 jobs, with the education and health services sector standing out by adding 74,000 jobs, indicating sustained demand and potential growth opportunities in this area despite overall lackluster hiring.
- Industry Change Analysis: Manufacturing has lost jobs every month since March 2024, highlighting challenges faced by the sector, while professional and business services, along with large employers, also saw job reductions, reflecting the fragility of economic recovery.
- Wage Growth Trends: Wage growth for job-stayers remained stable at 4.5% year-over-year, while job-changers experienced a slight slowdown to 6.4%, which may impact employee mobility and recruitment strategies in a competitive labor market.
- Data Revision and Outlook: The total number of jobs added in 2025 was 398,000, a significant drop from 771,000 in 2024, indicating a continued slowdown in the labor market; ADP is set to release the next employment report on March 4, 2026, to further monitor market dynamics.
See More
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- Profitability Improvement: Adjusted EBIT rose 10% to $1.4 billion, with EBIT margin increasing by 80 basis points to 26.0%, reflecting the company's success in cost control and service efficiency.
- Segment Performance: Revenues from Employer Services and PEO Services both grew by 6%, reaching $3.61 billion and $1.76 billion respectively, demonstrating ADP's stable growth and competitive position in its core business areas.
- Outlook Adjustment: ADP raised its FY26 revenue growth outlook to 6%, expecting to reach $21.8 billion, with adjusted EPS growth projected at 9%-10%, showcasing the company's confidence in future performance and proactive market strategies.
See More
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- Record Client Satisfaction: The company achieved its highest-ever client satisfaction in Q2, despite a modest decline in employer services retention rate, indicating successful customer relationship management and strong brand loyalty.
- Strategic Investments and Product Innovation: The acquisition of WorkForce Software enabled the launch of the ADP WorkForce Suite, winning several new clients in Q2, which further solidifies its competitive position, while the introduction of the Save4Retirement plan expands its retirement service offerings.
- Upgraded Full-Year Guidance: ADP raised its fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook to approximately 6% and adjusted EPS growth forecast to 9% to 10%, alongside a $6 billion stock repurchase authorization, demonstrating strong confidence in future growth prospects.
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