Buy now for a bounce-style entry: the stock is deeply oversold (RSI_6 ~13) after a sharp -5.04% regular-session drop, and price is sitting just above major support (S2 ~232.97).
Sentiment is better than price action: earnings beat + raised FY2026 growth guide + a new $6B buyback is a strong near-term demand catalyst.
Options positioning is risk-on (put/call ratios < 1), and Congress activity shows heavy recent buying with no sales—both supportive for a near-term rebound.
Main pushback: trend is still bearish (moving averages + MACD), and the Street broadly cut price targets and sits mostly at Hold/Neutral—so expect a choppy rebound rather than a clean uptrend.
Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) with negative momentum; MACD histogram -2.075 and negatively expanding.
Mean-reversion setup: RSI_6 at 13.418 indicates extreme oversold conditions, often followed by short-term snapback rallies.
Key levels: Current ~235.14; nearby supports S1 ~239.07 (now overhead/likely resistance after breakdown) and S2 ~232.97 (critical support). Pivot resistance ~248.94; further resistance R1 ~258.81.
Practical read: odds favor a short-term rebound attempt, but until price reclaims ~239–249, the larger tape remains a downtrend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios below 1 (OI PCR 0.61; Volume PCR 0.56) indicate more call interest than puts → bullish-to-risk-on tilt.
Volatility: 30D IV ~24.2 vs historical vol ~22.46; IV percentile 84.4 suggests options are relatively expensive and the market is pricing elevated uncertainty.
Activity: Today’s option volume (~1,360) is ~46% of 30D average, indicating sentiment is constructive but not “panic/mania” levels on volume.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
with revenue growth and raised FY2026 revenue growth guidance (>6%).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Price action is still weak: sharp -5.04% selloff and bearish moving-average stack suggests sellers still control the intermediate trend.
Fundamental narrative overhang: commentary points to weak hiring/moderating employment backdrop and PEO softness.
Valuation/multiple risk: multiple expansion looks unlikely near-term per bearish/neutral analysts; stock may stay range-bound without clearer re-acceleration.
Recent trend: Broad price-target cuts on/after 2026-01-29 with mostly Hold/Neutral/Market Perform stances (Stifel, BMO, TD Cowen, Citi, Morgan Stanley), plus Wells Fargo Underweight and Jefferies Underperform.
Notable positive outlier: Cantor initiated Overweight with a $306 target (argues recession-like expectations already priced in).
Wall Street pros: execution in Employer Services, bookings strength, raised guidance, strong model/cash generation and buyback support.
Wall Street cons: hiring moderation, PEO softness, durability of growth assumptions questioned, and “range-bound” view until clearer re-acceleration.
Wall Street analysts forecast ADP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADP is 290.27 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 332 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ADP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADP is 290.27 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 332 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 233.990
Low
230
Averages
290.27
High
332
Current: 233.990
Low
230
Averages
290.27
High
332
Stifel
David Grossman
Hold
downgrade
$290 -> $280
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
Stifel
David Grossman
Price Target
$290 -> $280
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Stifel analyst David Grossman lowered the firm's price target on ADP to $280 from $290 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. ADP reported a "solid" fiscal Q2 and outlook, but weak hiring and the AI narrative represent a continued overhang, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
BMO Capital
Daniel Jester
Market Perform
downgrade
$288 -> $281
2026-01-29
Reason
BMO Capital
Daniel Jester
Price Target
$288 -> $281
2026-01-29
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital analyst Daniel Jester lowered the firm's price target on ADP to $281 from $288 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results were decent with small, expected upside in Employer Services, influenced by supportive FX. but PEO Services segment growth was below BMO's model, and the trim to FY26 WSE employee growth is consistent with broader signs of moderation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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