US Foods Q4 Earnings Preview and Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy USFD?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement Date: US Foods is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.01, reflecting a 20.2% year-over-year increase, which indicates significant improvement in profitability and could positively impact stock prices.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $9.9 billion, representing a 4.2% year-over-year growth, showcasing the company's stable performance in the market despite facing certain challenges.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, US Foods has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 63% of the time, which enhances investor confidence in the company's future financial health and may attract more investor interest.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 8 upward revisions and 2 downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced 2 upward and 7 downward revisions, indicating market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance, prompting investors to closely monitor the upcoming earnings report.
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Analyst Views on USFD
Wall Street analysts forecast USFD stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 101.980
Low
85.00
Averages
91.00
High
95.00
Current: 101.980
Low
85.00
Averages
91.00
High
95.00
About USFD
US Foods Holding Corp. is a foodservice distributor. The Company provides its customers with a range of food offering and a comprehensive suite of e-commerce, technology and business solutions. The Company is primarily engaged in marketing, selling and distributing fresh, frozen and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers throughout the United States. Its products include meat and seafood, dry grocery products, refrigerated and frozen grocery products, dairy, equipment disposables and supplies and beverage products. It serves customers including independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities and retail locations. The Company operates a network of over 70 distribution facilities and a fleet of over 6,500 trucks, along with approximately 90 cash and carry locations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Sales Growth: Q4 net sales rose 3.3% to $9.8 billion, although missing the $9.913 billion estimate, the overall sales increase indicates sustained demand in the independent restaurant and healthcare sectors.
- Cash Flow and Buybacks: Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $1.37 billion, with net debt at $5.2 billion, and the company repurchased 4.2 million shares, reflecting confidence in future prospects and commitment to shareholder value.
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- Volume Increase: Total case volume rose 0.8% year-over-year, driven by a 4.1% increase in independent restaurant case volume, alongside 2.9% and 3.1% growth in healthcare and hospitality volumes, respectively, although chain volume decreased by 3.4%, reflecting diverse market demand.
- Profitability Improvement: Adjusted gross profit increased by 3.6% to $1.7 billion, with a gross margin of 17.6%, showcasing the company's success in cost control and efficiency enhancement.
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US Foods Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Optimistic Outlook
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- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: The company’s adjusted EBITDA increased by 11.1% to $490 million, demonstrating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency, thereby strengthening the foundation for future profitability.
- Case Volume Changes: Total case volume saw a slight increase of 0.8%, while independent restaurant case volume rose by 4.1%, reflecting sustained demand in the foodservice market, particularly strong performance in the independent restaurant sector.
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Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, indicating a shift in market sentiment that could influence investor decisions and market trends.
- Overview of Updates: While specific upgrades and downgrades are not detailed, the overall rating changes reflect analysts' sensitivity to market sentiment, potentially prompting investors to reassess their stock holdings.
- Investor Focus: For those considering buying DLTR stock, analysts' opinions will serve as a crucial reference point, likely impacting their investment decisions and the stock's market performance.
- Market Dynamics Impact: Changes in analyst ratings not only affect individual stock performance but may also create ripple effects on overall market sentiment and trends, necessitating close attention from investors to these developments.
See More
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- Stock Market Decline: U.S. stock indexes experienced a decline on Thursday, with the overall market dropping by 2.03%.
- Sector Performance: The S&P 500 index fell by 1.57%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.34%.
See More
US Foods Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates Amid Strong Growth
- Earnings Beat: US Foods reported an adjusted diluted EPS of $1.04 for Q4, surpassing the $1.00 estimate, while net income surged 178.8% to $184 million, demonstrating robust performance despite a challenging economic backdrop.
- Sales Growth: Q4 net sales rose 3.3% to $9.8 billion, although missing the $9.913 billion estimate, the overall sales increase indicates sustained demand in the independent restaurant and healthcare sectors.
- Cash Flow and Buybacks: Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $1.37 billion, with net debt at $5.2 billion, and the company repurchased 4.2 million shares, reflecting confidence in future prospects and commitment to shareholder value.
- Outlook: US Foods projects adjusted diluted EPS growth of 18% to 24% for fiscal 2026, with sales expected to reach between $41 billion and $41.789 billion, showcasing an optimistic outlook for future growth.
See More
US Foods Reports Record Earnings for Fiscal 2025
- Strong Performance: US Foods achieved over $1.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA and an adjusted EPS of $3.98 for fiscal 2025, exceeding the long-range plan set during the June 2024 Investor Day, reflecting robust growth in independent restaurants, healthcare, and hospitality sectors.
- Market Share Gains: The independent restaurant case volume grew by 4.1% in Q4, marking the company's 19th consecutive quarter of market share gains, indicating a sustained competitive advantage in a challenging market environment.
- Strategic Investments: The company invested over $150 million in technological advancements, enhancing the AI-driven ordering system on the MOXe platform, while the small truck delivery service Pronto generated over $1 billion in sales, with plans for further market expansion.
- Future Outlook: US Foods expects net sales growth of 4% to 6% in fiscal 2026 and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% to 13%, with management expressing confidence in achieving 2027 goals despite short-term challenges related to weather disruptions.
See More
US Foods Reports Strong Q4 Results with Positive Outlook
- Revenue Growth: US Foods Holding Corp. reported a 3.2% year-over-year revenue increase to $9.8 billion, slightly missing the $9.9 billion consensus estimate, indicating stable growth amidst competitive pressures.
- Volume Increase: Total case volume rose 0.8% year-over-year, driven by a 4.1% increase in independent restaurant case volume, alongside 2.9% and 3.1% growth in healthcare and hospitality volumes, respectively, although chain volume decreased by 3.4%, reflecting diverse market demand.
- Profitability Improvement: Adjusted gross profit increased by 3.6% to $1.7 billion, with a gross margin of 17.6%, showcasing the company's success in cost control and efficiency enhancement.
- Positive Outlook: US Foods anticipates full-year net sales growth of 4% to 6% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% to 13%, with adjusted diluted EPS growth expected at 18% to 24%, reflecting strong confidence in future performance.
See More
US Foods Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Optimistic Outlook
- Earnings Highlights: US Foods reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.04, beating expectations by $0.03, indicating stable profitability; however, revenue of $9.8 billion, growing only 3.2% year-over-year, missed estimates, which may affect market confidence.
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: The company’s adjusted EBITDA increased by 11.1% to $490 million, demonstrating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency, thereby strengthening the foundation for future profitability.
- Case Volume Changes: Total case volume saw a slight increase of 0.8%, while independent restaurant case volume rose by 4.1%, reflecting sustained demand in the foodservice market, particularly strong performance in the independent restaurant sector.
- Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: US Foods projects net sales growth of 4% to 6%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% to 13%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 18% to 24% for FY 2026, with guidance including the impact of a 53rd week, indicating confidence in future performance.
See More
