USFD Should I Buy
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US Foods (USFD) is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Despite an overall bullish trend (moving averages stacked positively) and supportive analyst targets, the near-term setup skews negative: options flow is extremely put-heavy, the MACD is still positive but losing momentum, insiders have been selling aggressively, and pattern-based probabilities point to downside over the next day/week/month. If you already own it, it’s a hold rather than a chase; if you’re looking to initiate now, I would skip buying at current levels.
Trend/structure: Bullish moving average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates the intermediate trend is still up. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.159) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) at ~59.8 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought, but also not washed out for a clean dip-buy). Levels: Pivot ~82.97 is the key near-term line; price (83.62 post-market) is only modestly above it. Upside resistance sits at R1 ~85.25 then R2 ~86.66; downside supports are S1 ~80.68 then S2 ~79.27. Near-term probability model (similar candlestick patterns) flags elevated downside risk (-3.63% next day, -4.78% next week, -6.93% next month), which argues against buying immediately.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Wall Street stance remains constructive overall: multiple Buys/Overweights with price targets clustered around $90–$95 (above current ~83.6).
Hedge funds are reportedly buying heavily (buying amount +842% last quarter), supportive for medium-term demand.
Earnings catalyst upcoming: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) with Street EPS est. ~0.94; recent commentary suggests expectations are for an in-line quarter and continued self-help/labor productivity benefits.
Options market is flashing near-term caution: extremely put-heavy volume (put/call volume ratio 69.
and put-skewed open interest (OI put/call 1.23).
Insider selling surged (selling amount +603% over the last month), which is a near-term sentiment overhang.
Momentum is weakening (MACD histogram positive but contracting), increasing the risk of a pullback from current levels.
No supportive news flow in the last week; next major event risk is earnings (2/12), which can amplify downside if guidance/volumes disappoint.
Prior concern: Barclays noted Q3 case volume fell short (still a watch item for the upcoming print).
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $10.191B (+4.76% YoY), net income rose to $153M (+3.38% YoY), and EPS increased to $0.67 (+9.84% YoY). Gross margin improved to 17.2 (+0.35 YoY). Overall: steady, incremental growth with EPS outpacing revenue (suggesting operational leverage/self-help), but not a blowout growth profile—making the stock more vulnerable to short-term sentiment/positioning shifts around earnings.
Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up into the $92–$95 range in January (Citi raised to $95; Guggenheim raised to $95), while Morgan Stanley resumed at Equal Weight with a $92 target (neutral stance). Citi previously cut its target (to $90 from $99) earlier in January as part of group outlook resets, and Barclays trimmed to $90 in November after softer case volume. Wall Street pros: constructive targets and Buy/Overweight bias, emphasis on share gains and productivity/self-help supporting the algorithm even in a choppy macro. Cons: at least one major shop is neutral (Equal Weight) and prior volume softness remains a key swing factor into the upcoming earnings.
